2022 Big Ten Tournament Preview
Is Ohio State the best team? Can Northwestern make the NCAA Tournament?
The Big Ten women’s basketball regular season is over, and with it ends a beautifully chaotic slate of games, with an unbelievably wild finish.
Going into the final day of games, three teams — Michigan, Ohio State and Iowa — all had a very real chance of winning the conference.
In the end, two of them — the Buckeyes and Hawkeyes — shared the crown, with Ohio State taking down Michigan State and Iowa obliterating the Wolverines at home in front of a sold out crowd.
Ohio State takes the 1 seed into the tournament thanks to the head-to-head victory, while Iowa is at 2, Michigan is at 3 and Maryland at 4. Those four all get the double bye, which may be crucial considering the war that is about to happen in nearly every game over the next week.
Here is a look at the bracket:
There’s a lot to talk about here, so the way I will organize it is this: I’m going to talk about both teams in each matchup for the first four games, going in order by when those games are played.
From there, I will talk a little about the top six individually, how important this tournament is for seeding purposes as they are all clear locks to make the NCAA Tourney and then how they each could win the thing.
Cool? Cool.
No. 12 Penn State vs. No. 13 Rutgers
Head-to-Head: 1-1 | Dec. 9, Penn State 52-48 | Feb. 13, Rutgers 71-62
Her Hoops Stats Projection: Rutgers 67-66 (51.7% win probability)
Rutgers: The Scarlet Knights had an almost entirely new roster and a new interim coach temporarily replacing a legend, so it is no wonder that they started out of the gates slow.
Rutgers started the Big Ten slate 0-12 before picking up wins in three of its last five, starting with a victory over its upcoming opponent. What has clicked recently has been the offense, which has hit the 70-point threshold three times in the last five after doing it only four times in the first 24 games.
The defense has consistently been good for the Scarlet Knights, which could make them a tough out if the shots continue to fall as they have been.
Penn State: I think my brain has created a version of Penn State that is much better than what Penn State actually is.
In my head, this team is led by a true star in Makenna Marisa, who gets strong contributions from the rest of the starting five and can perform as a mini Iowa by averaging 80 per game.
Instead, I think I’m only partly right. Marisa is a star and deserves more attention for her efforts (22.5 PPG, 4.2 APG, 1.6 SPG), but this team does not have enough going on elsewhere offensively to make up for how Very Bad it is on defense.
The Nittany Lions showed some life recently with big wins over Nebraska and Michigan State, but then got blown out by Ohio State in the second half and then lost to Minnesota at home to end up in this spot.
This is a matchup of opposites, but I think Rutgers comes in with more momentum, and feels more ready to fight and advance.
No. 11 Wisconsin vs. No. 14 Illinois
Head-to-Head: 1-1 | Jan. 9, Illinois 68-47 | Feb. 6, Wisconsin 70-62
HHS Projection: Wisconsin 66-64 (54.5% win probability)
Illinois: Back in early January, the Illini earned a dominant victory over Wisconsin, a brother-in-arms at the bottom of the standings. Then, Illinois never won again, losing 10 of the 11 remaining games on the schedule by double digits, and nine of them by 15 or more.
The only single-digit game? A Wisconsin rematch that had the Badgers come out on top by eight. Illinois has one thing going for it toward the future, and that is promise. Every major contributor can come back next season, including Aaliyah Nye, De’Myla Brown and Adalia McKenzie, three underclassmen that have played well down the stretch.
This is time for development, but that doesn’t bode well for victories in the present day.
Wisconsin: The Badgers are also trying to build from the ground up, but have seen more tangible success doing that this year. For starters, Wisconsin is not in 14th, moving up three spots from the 2020-21 campaign.
Five in-conference wins is a huge deal for this team, and new head coach Marisa Moseley can show even more progress with a victory in the tournament. Though the last battle was close between these two, I haven’t seen much reason to believe Illinois has much fight left to make an upset happen here.
No. 8 Michigan State vs. No. 9 Purdue
Head-to-Head: 0-1 | Jan. 9, 69-59 Purdue
HHS Projection: Michigan State 73-69 (62.1% win probability)
Purdue: Three weeks ago, I mapped out Purdue’s final six games, each of which seemed supremely winnable if the Boilermakers ended the year strong. They went 3-3, and are now completely out of the NCAA Tournament picture.
It’s hard to say that it is a disappointing season for Purdue, though, who were not expected to be in the picture whatsoever with a new head coach and a lack of strong recent history. Still, what this final stretch proved is that Purdue is not all the way there just yet. There are pieces of a solid roster, but Katie Geralds will need patience, even with better-than-expected first-year results.
Michigan State: It is also tough to say much about Michigan State considering how much turmoil this roster went through in the season. Nine different players saw starts as injuries cost the Spartans valuable players from what seemed like a tournament-level roster.
But with losses in three straight and six of the past eight, it would take quite a run to get in the picture now. Despite that, the Spartans are not a team many will want to play thanks to the explosiveness of star Nia Clouden (20.4 PPG, 40.8 3PT%), who has been helped a lot by junior Alyza Winston (12.2 PPG) and freshman sharpshooter Mathilda Ek (11.5 PPG, 39.2 3PT%).
No. 7 Northwestern vs. No. 10 Minnesota
Head-to-Head: 0-1 | Feb. 11, 74-68 Minnesota
HHS Projection: Northwestern 72-68 (63.8% win probability)
Minnesota: This was not the year that Lindsay Whalen was hoping from her team, but escaping the first two games is at least a small accomplishment.
The Gophers were a whole lot like Penn State: a strong offensive team (70.3 PPG, 67th in the NCAA) and a terrible defensive team (72.0 PPG, 315th). Junior Sara Scalia broke out as a true No. 1 scoring option (15.1 PPG, 42.6 3PT%), but, for a roster that has stayed very much in tact for two years, this still feels like underachieving.
Northwestern: We need to talk about Northwestern for a bit.
The final five games were a net positive for the Wildcats’s tourney hopes, earning a huge OT win over Michigan, dropping two reasonable road games to Indiana and Nebraska, then beating the hell out of Illinois and Purdue. The game before Michigan, though, is one that I am sure Northwestern wants back.
That one was a six-point loss to these very Gophers, that coming despite 27 points, 7 assists, 4 steals and 0 turnovers by Northwestern star Veronica Burton. As of writing this, ESPN projects the Wildcats as the last team into the field of 68. Beating Minnesota a few weeks back may have allowed for some more wiggle room.
The obvious thing to say is that Northwestern needs to beat Minnesota. But is that all? If the Wildcats did that, then Iowa, a team that Northwestern has beaten and lost to in overtime, awaits. Win that, and I think the tournament is a near lock. Just go 1-1 as expected, and I think it’s out of Northwestern’s hands.
I would love to see seven bids for a conference so clearly full of talent, and Northwestern, at the least, has given itself a chance.
No. 6 Nebraska
HHS National Rank: 20
ESPN Seed Projection: 7
My sweet, beautiful Cornhuskers are nice and locked into a NCAA Tournament spot, and have likely done enough to secure a top-eight seed regardless of what happens in the conference tourney. I think the goal of this team should be to win at least one game there, so this Big Ten tournament should just be to keep the ball rolling.
This team is an absolute blast to watch, and Amy Williams has a legitimate case for Big Ten Coach of the Year for this level of turnaround this quickly. But can Nebraska make a run this week?
I think that answer is a resounding yes. Nebraska is built in a way that makes them extremely difficult to contain, and it has enough difference-makers defensively to almost always keep it close even on cold shooting nights. That first game against Illinois-Wisconsin should be a victory, and if so, Michigan would be waiting in the next round, a team the Cornhuskers played once, and beat by 21.
If Nebraska gets hot from the field, I think it has the capability to beat any team in the conference. But the Cornhuskers also go from superhuman at home (16-1) to merely OK outside of it (6-6), so they might need some excited fans in Indy to do so.
No. 5 Indiana
HHS Rank: 19
ESPN Seed Projection: 5
Unlike Nebraska, this tournament is huge for Indiana.
Just two weeks ago, the Hoosiers had all but locked up a top four NCAA Tournament seed, which would give them two home games before the Sweet 16 if they won said games. But then, Indiana lost four of five in a brutal, brutal slate (Nebraska, Northwestern, Iowa twice, Maryland), and it now is outside the top four, both in conference and in projections.
That lack of double bye hurts, but it could give the Hoosiers an easy win to boost the résumé before a rematch with Maryland. Indiana would really, really like to win that game, and they could really use a healthy Mackenzie Holmes to do so.
We know what this Indiana team is capable of at full strength, but this closing stretch has been real troubling to witness. There is still a group with Final Four aspirations here, and that needs to start coming together this week.
No. 4 Maryland
HHS Rank: 6
ESPN Seed Projection: 4
Don’t look now, but Maryland is really good again.
The Terrapins ended the season by going 9-1 in their last 10, taking down Iowa, Ohio State and Indiana while only falling on the road to Michigan. This team ranks second in the nation in offensive rating and is just outside the top 40 defensively, so despite not winning the conference yet again, this is another very dangerous Maryland roster that earned a double bye.
Like the Hoosiers, Maryland wants those home tournament games, so that (likely) rematch is going to be absolutely pivotal. This is a team that is deep with talent to beat you, and should be hard to contain regardless of opponent.
No. 3 Michigan
HHS Rank: 13
ESPN Seed Projection: 2
Michigan was a win Sunday away from its first ever Big Ten title. It allowed 104 points and lost by 24.
It was a gut punch for a Wolverines team that has been so solid this season, but Iowa has been ignited as of late and Michigan still projects as a top two seed heading into postseason play, so not all is lost.
There was also one huge positive from the Iowa game: Leigha Brown played for the first time since Jan. 31. She may have not played great — 9 points on 1-of-6 shooting in 13 minutes — but just getting Naz Hillmon’s co-star back on the court is so, so important.
If Brown can be back to full strength, this is a team that can and should make a deep run in both upcoming tournaments. Hillmon is a monster, and her supporting cast has developed in ways that seem completely unrealistic. Emily Kiser and Danielle Rauch have made their senior years into breakout campaigns, and Maddie Nolan’s three-and-D ability makes her quite possibly the most underrated player in the conference.
Nolan ranks 12th in the Big Ten in win shares (5.6). No other player in the top 20 scores less than 10 points per game (Nolan averages 9.4), showing just how much she brings to the Wolverines outside of her impressive shooting ability.
Michigan needs to take its Caitlin Clark detonation in stride and move forward to keep this top eight projection, because the expectations for this team should still be sky high regardless of what happened Sunday.
No. 2 Iowa
HHS Rank: 9
ESPN Seed Projection: 4
Iowa, hello, it is nice to finally meet you.
This is the team that we were promised. This is the Iowa that we expected from the jump. And oh my god, This Iowa team can do something special.
The Hawkeyes come into the Big Ten Tournament with a share of the regular season title off the back of four straight wins, three of which were against ranked opponents. Of course, the last one was a 104-80 beatdown of Michigan in front of a sold out Hawkeye crowd while Clark put on maybe the best performance of her career:
38 points, 11/18 FG, 8/11 3PT, 6 rebounds, 11 assists, 3 steals, 2 turnovers
She has had flashier stat lines, yes, but to do that in a game with everything on the line, against one of the best defenses in the country, to give Iowa a Big Ten title, is simply remarkable. I have said that I don’t think Clark is the National Player of the Year (Aliyah Boston has been a two-way monster for South Carolina, easily the best team in the country), but if she can keep this play up throughout next week, I might really have to back track.
But this red hot play doesn’t end with Clark. Monika Czinano needs more respect as an elite big in this conference, whose post moves are nearly impossible to deal with. McKenna Warnock and Gabbie Marshall both shoot the three ball at over 40 percent, and they need to in order to give Clark the correct spacing to do what she does.
Lisa Bluder seemed to have a stacked roster on her hands this year, and it is all clicking at the right time. Iowa is, at this moment, the scariest team in the conference. And if it can keep the home games for the opening NCAA Tournament games, it should be easy to ride that momentum into the Sweet 16 and beyond.
No. 1 Ohio State
HHS Rank: 27
ESPN Seed Projection: 6
I don’t know how Ohio State managed this, but here it is, at the mountain top of a hyper-competitive Big Ten despite going 2-4 against the other top five teams.
Well, it’s a good thing the conference has nine other teams, because the Buckeyes went 12 for 12 against them, earning the 1-seed on a bad reason — playing one more game than Michigan — but doing it thanks to winning games it was supposed to.
That sounds easy, but Ohio State was the best in the conference at doing it, at least after the embarrassing defeat to Syracuse. Jacy Sheldon and Taylor Mikesell are a big reason why, and remain the best backcourt duo in this conference, but the emergence of both Rikki Harris and Taylor Thierry cannot be understated.
Harris and Thierry have both been excellent two-way players, and have been pivotal in Ohio State fixing some of the defensive issues that it was so plagued by earlier in the season. Now that the Buckeyes are serviceable on that side of the floor, the wins have started to pile up, and now we get to see Kevin McGuff attempt to hit the griddy. Beautiful stuff.
I did not anticipate Ohio State getting here, regardless of if Michigan should have gotten that extra game or not. For the Buckeyes to even be top three is impressive after losing two key forwards and a point guard before any games were played.
Yes, Ohio State is likely not the best team in the Big Ten, but the Buckeyes have more than proven they are worthy of being in the conversation.
Prediction
This thing is pushing 3,000 words so let me just put it on that graphic for you.
Some brief thoughts:
I think the favorites will be pretty dominant until Friday, but then nearly every game should be incredible. Look out for good early ones between Rutgers-Penn State, Purdue-Michigan State and maybe even Rutgers-Indiana, if that indeed happens.
Indiana and Michigan fall on Friday in my mind, but both will hopefully be that much closer to full strength for the other tournament this month.
Ohio State-Maryland and Iowa-Nebraska would almost have to be the highest scoring semifinals in the conference’s history. I need it.
I have a rematch of last year’s final, but I think the Hawkeyes get it done this time around. Taking the hot hand is easy, but Iowa has played exceptional basketball down the stretch of the season.
Well good, I was worried I would go too long on this one.
Anyway, see you all after the conference tourney. It’s about to be a blast.
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