Let's Talk College Football Playoff

Please, please, give us good games

First off, an apology.

While I did say there was a chance I’d not get a post out for Monday, my intention was to have the midseason Hoopla 40 done and that did not happen. Turns out I had less time at home than I thought, so sorry about that. It’s now on deck for this coming Monday.

That being said, the best sporting event with Ohio State or Michigan involved on New Year’s Eve is the women’s basketball game between both of them at 1 p.m. on Big Ten Network. The teams are a combined 26-1 heading into the matchup, it should be a complete banger and it’ll be done well before Michigan and TCU kick off. No excuses.

The college football season is reaching its conclusion, and what a season it has been. Upsets and parity throughout much of the sport, and it has led to a playoff that, on paper, is more unique than the ones we have recently been given.

We have the first non-Oklahoma Big 12 team entering the fray, a conference not named the SEC getting two teams in for the first time, and also Georgia, the defending champion. Can’t all be interesting.

My optimism says there is a chance both of these games are good. I thought the same last year, though, and my god that was wrong. Still, let’s go through the two semifinal matchups and hope for the rare Good playoff matchups.

No. 2 Michigan vs. No. 3 TCU

12/31, 4 p.m., ESPN

Lines: Michigan -7.5, Over/Under 58.5

Somehow, someway, Michigan is back in the playoff for a second straight year. The Wolverines have an even better record to show for it this time around, going a perfect 13-0, including a second-straight dominant win over Ohio State followed by a convincing victory over Purdue in the Big Ten Championship.

Those last two wins came almost entirely without star running back Blake Corum, who is out of the season after finishing with 1,463 rushing yards and 18 rushing touchdowns. No Corum has cleared the way for Donovan Edwards, an exciting second-year back who ran for 216 yards and two scores against the Buckeyes and 185 yards and a touchdown against Purdue.

While Corum is a superstar, Edwards’ success proves that Michigan’s system has the capability to continue chugging along without him, and that’s a lot in thanks to an extremely solid offensive line. But more pressure will continue to fall on quarterback J.J. McCarthy, who has completed 65.3 percent of his passes for 2,376 yards and 20 touchdowns this season.

McCarthy has been a risk-averse signal-caller for the run-heavy Michigan attack, throwing just three interceptions all season. He’s also only thrown over 30 passes twice all season, neither of which came in the last two games without Corum. If the Wolverines can rely on the run game and use that to spark McCarthy, that’s when they are in their wheelhouse.

But, McCarthy has proven capable to be the star, throwing for three touchdowns against Ohio State. Yes, that was a lot because of some truly horrendous coverage from the Buckeyes, but they were huge plays all the same.

Michigan’s opponent is TCU, the most unexpected team to make it of the bunch. The Horned Frogs started the season 12-0 before falling in an overtime battle to Kansas State in the Big 12 Championship.

TCU has scored with Michigan (40.3 PPG to Michigan’s 40.1 PPG) all year thanks to Heisman-finalist quarterback Max Duggan, who has been a revelation all season. Duggan has completed 64.9 percent of his passes for 3,321 yards, 30 touchdowns and just four interceptions. He’s also ran for 404 yards and six scores, 110 of which came against the Wildcats in a truly unbelievable effort.

Duggan has been helped by receiver Quentin Johnson, a future first-round pick with 53 catches for 903 yards and five touchdowns. He is a menace on a deep ball, and will be a big test for Michigan’s impressive secondary.

Both teams can score, but Michigan has had the better defense in every major category. Some of that comes from strength of opponent, but the Wolverines also just held Ohio State to 23 points a month ago.

TCU ranks 25th in both rushing and passing yards per game, and that balanced offense could be significant in trying to find a way through. On the other end, though, the Horned Frogs allow 149.5 rushing yards per game, 65th-best in the country. Michigan could exploit that and make this a tough upset to pull off.

I do think Michigan has the advantage, but there’s a reason TCU is here, and it’s not all about the numbers. The Horned Frogs have, time and time again, found ways to win ugly, and that matters a lot when the competition is this good. They looked dead in the water against Kansas State before battling all the way back to force overtime, and they have trailed at halftime multiple times throughout the season.

Michigan is not a team you want to fall behind on because of its ability to chew clock and get first downs, but no Corum could make that more of a challenge. TCU’s comeback abilities will need to come through here, and I think it’ll keep this from being lopsided, but I do expect the Wolverines to prevail and make it to the title game.

Prediction: Michigan 30, TCU 24

No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 4 Ohio State

12/31, 8 p.m., ESPN

Lines: Georgia -7, Over/Under 62.5

This game feels like it’s going one of two ways.

Option 1 is more preferred but, as things stand, less likely in my opinion. That option is we get an instant classic because Ohio State shows up and plays to its potential.

This team is absolutely talented enough to do that. The Buckeyes have C.J. Stroud, a two-time Heisman finalist who is as solid as they come. Ohio State’s defense is much improved from last season, and has some real game changers, especially J.T. Tuimoloau and Zach Harrison on the defensive line.

Ohio State also has Marvin Harrison Jr., likely the most talented wide receiver in the country who can break off a big play at any given moment. It also has Emeka Egbuka, another true stud, along with Julian Fleming and a wide receiver room crafted by Greek Gods.

Georgia, of course, is once again Georgia. The Bulldogs have freak athletes all over the field, a defense that wrecks your shit and even got “Heisman-level” quarterback play from Stetson Bennett, regardless of how bad that choice was for a finalist. For a Georgia team to be throwing for nearly 300 yards per game feels unbelievable, but somehow these passing offenses are neck and neck (Ohio State is 14th nationally, Georgia is 18th).

With broad strokes, these teams are extremely similar. Both prefer to air the ball out but have solid run games, and both have managed to control opponents defensively, Ohio State doing more to stop the pass and Georgia stops the run more.

Because of that, if Ohio State comes out with some serious fire and plays its best game, I think this is a near coin flip. There’s a real world where that happens and I think it looks a lot like that 2019 Clemson game that was so much fun.

But Option 2 feels like where the momentum is, and that game would suck.

Option 2 is that Ohio State lacks the juice required and gets pulverized by a Georgia team that has been here before and is ready to be there again. Option 2 is what happens if Ryan Day fails to prepare his team and fails to coach a good game on offense.

The most recent version of Ohio State is Option 2. Day coached a true masterclass in futility against the Wolverines and the floor completely fell out from under his team. Hopefully, for viewing sake, the Buckeyes learned a thing or two from that experience.

The vibes are not great, though, and while signing a lackluster (for Ohio State) recruiting class won’t impact this game specifically, the energy just does not feel like it’s there for this team. I hope I’m wrong because I want to watch a fun football game to end 2022, but my prediction has to lean more toward Option 2 as it stands today.

Prediction: Georgia 38, Ohio State 20

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