2022-23 Big Ten Women's Basketball Preview: Illinois
Starting the team previews with a program in Year Zero
Folks, we are back.
This is the start of 14 straight Monday posts that will preview a Big Ten women’s basketball team, done in the order I expect them to rank in next season. This will have information on roster changes, players to watch for and the types of aspirations each team should have for the 2022-23 season.
All of last year’s previews can be found here.
In case you were wondering, here’s how I did in projecting the conference standings last year, sorted by actual finish in the regular season:
Ohio State (my prediction: 6)
Iowa (my prediction: 3)
Michigan (my prediction: 4)
Maryland (my prediction: 1)
Indiana (my prediction: 2)
Nebraska (my prediction: 7)
Northwestern (my prediction: 5)
Michigan State (my prediction: 8)
Purdue (my prediction: 12)
Minnesota (my prediction: 9)
Penn State (my prediction: 11)
Wisconsin (my prediction: 14)
Rutgers (my prediction: 10)
Illinois (my prediction: 13)
I only got two teams exactly right, but had the spirit right on most, and yes I am counting that as a small victory. Only Ohio State’s surprise regular season crown made me 5+ spots off, while 10 of my 14 predictions were within two spots either direction. Not bad for year one of the newsletter.
Enough general talk though. Let’s get deep into the nitty gritty of our first team.
Nancy Fahey is a legend in women’s college basketball, winning five national championships at Division-III Washington University, including four in a row from 1998-2001.
She decided to call it a career at the end of last season, ending with 779 wins to her résumé. Fahey had been Illinois’ coach for the past five seasons, but was unable to fix a program that has not made an NCAA Tournament in nearly 20 years.
Fahey went just 7-77 in the Big Ten in her tenure, and now the Illini will again look to a new face for answers, this time with former Dayton head coach Shauna Green.
Green is an excellent get for the Illini. She won A10 Coach of the Year three times while with the Flyers and got Dayton to the NCAA Tournament in four of her six seasons. She also has experience recruiting in the area, something that could be extremely valuable considering the team she is taking over.
Nationally, Illinois was OK offensively and terrible on defense. Within the Big Ten, it was terrible everywhere, ranking 12th and 13th in points for and against per game, respectively.
Illinois didn’t do anything particularly bad on offense, finishing with mediocre shooting rates, a bad, but not horrible turnover rate (16.8 per game, 243rd in the nation) and a pretty good three-point percentage. The problem was that Illinois did not really shoot threes, with their 494 attempts on the season ranking 239th nationally.
There are some pros to take from this offense, though. The Illini mostly avoided foul trouble, averaging 15.3 fouls per game (91st in the country). They also played with solid pace, and while that isn’t a pro when the defense seemingly couldn’t handle it, there is at least an identity there to work with.
Now, the defense. Illinois’ opponents averaged 102.1 points per 100 possessions, 14th-worst in the country. Opponents shot 43.8 percent from the field and 35.1 percent from three for a horrid 50.4 effective field goal percentage allowed, 11th-worst in D-I. The 0.87 opponent points per play was 10th-worst.
Green’s rebuild must start with turning Illinois into a semi-competent defensive team. It won’t be anything new to her: Green turned Dayton’s defense from fine (139th in defensive rating in 2015-16) to terrific (top 60 all six seasons, 16th in 2021-22) pretty much immediately.
The roster Green is inheriting to make that turnaround will look pretty different to what it was last year.
As it stands, eight players from last year’s roster are gone, including five transfers out that could turn to six if Jada Peebles, reportedly in the portal, decided to leave. But, Peebles is still listed on Illinois’ roster for the time being, so we will consider her on the team.
The big loss here is undoubtedly Aaliyah Nye, who led Illinois in scoring with pretty solid efficiency despite consistently being the primary player for opponents to contain. Nye didn’t light the world on fire, but she was very dependable and her absence will be felt on offense, as will De’Myla Brown who chipped in solid production.
But, if Peebles returns, there is a solid trio for Green to incorporate new talent around.
Adalia McKenzie, 5-10 G, So., 9.4 PPG, 4.1 RPG in 2021-22
Jada Peebles, 5-10 G, Sr., 7.0 PPG, 1.8 APG in 2021-22
Kendall Bostic, 6-2 F, Jr., 6.7 PPG, 11.4 RPG in 2021-22
The real highlight is McKenzie, who was excellent as a freshman for Illinois, and will now get more opportunities to develop. Peebles brings back strong scoring, and Bostic was one of the Big Ten’s best rebounders. If she can add some more interior scoring to her game, she could be a consistent double-double threat.
There are solid pieces to work around, and Green already has brought in some promising newcomers through the portal. Makira Cook was excellent last year for Dayton and could lead Illinois in scoring immediately, and Genesis Bryant, while quiet for NC State, was a highly regarded prospect who brings valuable experience working under one of the top coaches in the country in Wes Moore.
Of the incoming freshmen, Camille Jackson is clearly the one to look for. Holding on to a four-star recruit in spite of last season is huge, and I would love to see Green give Jackson immediate opportunities to prove herself. Green also took more than on-roster players from Dayton, snagging Flyers commit Kam’Ren Rhodes to add to this class.
Outlook
Illinois is starting over with a new coach and a whole lot of new players. It is likely not going to all come together for a miracle season in year one, but this is more promising than it has felt in awhile for the program.
Shauna Green, on paper, is a great hire, and the roster is set up to, at the very least, show signs of improvement next season. I think that is the big thing to look for if you are an Illinois fan: any moves in the right direction.
What that means as a team is a much better showing on defense, like, everywhere on defense, and seeing some of the talent on this roster blossom, especially players like McKenzie, Bostic and Jackson.
The Dayton additions, especially Cook, could make the Illini competitive this year, and maybe Bryant just needed a change of scenery and more opportunities to prove her recruiting ranking valid.
There’s a reason I rank Illinois last year, and it’s because this is year zero for the program. But that doesn’t mean all hope is lost here, and I expect to see some flashes of what this team could be after a few years under Green.
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