2022-23 Big Ten Women's Basketball Preview: Iowa
Can this loaded Hawkeyes roster be the Big Ten's first Final Four team since 2015?
Folks, we are here.
This is the final team preview. We are at the team I expect to be at the top of the Big Ten. After doing so last year and keeping the bulk of its core in tact, anything else for this team would be a big disappointment.
It’s finally time to talk about the Iowa Hawkeyes.
Last week’s preview:
Iowa looked ready to reach its full potential last season.
For the sixth straight season, and for the ninth time in the last 10 years, Iowa won 20-plus games, going 24-8 and earning a share of the Big Ten regular season title. This has become the norm under head coach Lisa Bluder, who has succeeded at keeping the program as a consistent winner since taking over in 2000.
The Hawkeyes took that strong regular season and proved they were a legitimate NCAA Tournament threat, winning the Big Ten tournament for just the third time under Bluder.
But from there, Iowa faltered. The Hawkeyes pummeled Illinois State in the first round of the NCAA Tournament, then got upset 64-62 by 10-seed Creighton, missing out on the Sweet 16. It was a downer ending to what had been an excellent year to that point.
This was an excellent all-around year for Iowa, a fully realized look of a team with a true superstar that we will talk about in a moment.
Believe it or not, this was a much-improved defense too. Because the Hawkeyes play one of the fastest paces in the country, this number is always going to look inflated, but Her Hoop Stats gave Iowa an 88.5 defensive rating, 99th-best in the country. Compare that to the year prior where Iowa, still going very fast, had a 93.3 rating that was 186th nationally.
Iowa was the only team in the country with a field goal percentage north of 50, and it wasn’t particularly close, with South Dakota State in second with a 47.8-percent rate. This unbelievable mark of efficiency was done at least somewhat in spite of the superstar mentioned above: Caitlin Clark.
Caitlin Clark’s Stats and National Ranks:
PPG: 27.0 (1st)
APG: 8.0 (1st)
Free-throws made: 200 (1st)
Win shares: 12.2 (3rd)
Assist rate: 43.3% (3rd)
Clark was among the nation’s best players last year, and was correctly named Big Ten Player of the Year and an All-American for it. She was also correctly not named National Player of the Year, as South Carolina’s Aliyah Boston deserved it for being an unbelievable force on both sides of the floor for the Gamecocks.
Yes, Clark’s numbers were better, but her game was not without flaws in her sophomore season. She led all 4,802 Division I players with 152 turnovers, nearly five per game.
The other issue was with efficiency, specifically from three. Clark started the year really struggling from deep, something that was discussed here plenty throughout the season. It improved once Big Ten play began, a very normal thing to happen to a player when competition ramps up.
Here are all of Caitlin Clark’s stats during Big Ten play last season. Stare at it as long as you see fit.
Clark is a wonder. She is, without a doubt, the most exciting player in the country when the shots are falling. Last year, that “when” felt less certain than it should, and it cost her team in the most important moment of the season. Against Creighton, Clark played all 40 minutes. She finished with 15 points, 8 rebounds, 11 assists and just 1 turnover, all good. She also shot 4 of 19. Even worse, she was 0 of 8 in the second half.
The national player of the year case is clear when Clark is putting up 40-point triple doubles, but it is those low points that have to be solved if Iowa wants to hit its largest aspirations.
A key returnee, plus a key transfer in, may help make that happen.
First of all, I need to talk about Monika Czinano, who needs more credit than being Clark’s sidekick.
Czinano finished 13th in the country with 21.2 points per game and second with a 67.9 field goal percentage. Those are not sidekick numbers. Yes, the gravity that Clark’s talent causes helps create space for Czinano, but she is one of the country’s best interior scorers, and may even be the very best. What she lacks in rebounding (6.2 RPG) and defensive ability, she makes up with on the offensive end of the court without question.
In the two biggest games of the season last year — the Big Ten title game and the Round of 32 — here were Czinano’s stat lines:
vs. Indiana (B1G Championship): 30 points (13/18 FG), 10 rebounds
vs. Creighton (Round of 32): 27 points (12/20 FG), 6 rebounds
It was Czinano that paced the team in both games, proving her ability to be the star when it is asked of her. Czinano announced that she’ll be using her free year of eligibility to return for a super senior season, and that alone keeps the Hawkeyes as a real national powerhouse.
The bulk of Iowa’s core returns to run it back, with Tomi Taiwo, a solid off-the-bench scorer, being the largest loss. The lone addition from the transfer portal, Central Michigan guard Molly Davis, has the potential to be a huge one if the fit is right.
Davis was, in many ways, Central Michigan’s Caitlin Clark. She was the team’s leading scorer and playmaker by wide margins, shot the ball a ton at a not-super-efficient rate (39.7 FG%, 28.0 3PT%) while turning it over 4.0 times per game.
There was, of course a difference. Iowa won 24 games, and Central Michigan did the opposite of winning in 25 games, going 4-25. But that absolutely was not on Davis, who is a remarkable scorer that now gets to be an offense with a handful of them, including maybe the best scorer in college basketball.
If Davis can improve her efficiency, which shouldn’t be hard considering she shot over 38 percent from three each of her first two seasons, this added threat as a scorer and facilitator should only help Clark get more open looks and, hopefully, lower both of their turnover rates.
Whether or not Davis starts is in question, as Iowa returns all five of its starters from the prior season. Gabbie Marshall, Kate Martin and McKenna Warnock, were all excellent secondary scorers for the Hawkeyes last year and remain extremely valuable weapons for Bluder to utilize.
I called Warnock the most underrated player in the Big Ten last season and she still very much is that. For the second straight season, Warnock averaged 11+ PPG and 6+ RPG while shooting 50+ percent from the field and 40+ percent from three. Over the last two seasons, Warnock is one of four players to have done that on more than three attempts from deep per game in even one season. To do it twice in a row? Only La Salle’s Kayla Spruill joins her. This is Iowa’s third option on offense, by the way.
Martin is a great all-around tool for Iowa on offense, where she averaged 7.2 PPG/4.9 RPG/3.5 APG. She did most of her work inside the arc last season (55.0 2PT%) compared to Marshall, who averaged 6.8 PPG while shooting 39.3 percent from three.
The depth of this team has taken an added hit outside of the portal when Kylie Feuerbach (3.4 PPG), who played in all 32 games last season, went down with an ACL tear last month. That leaves forward Addison O’Grady as the only non-starting returnee who played in more than 20 games last season. O’Grady showed promise as a true freshman and potential Czinano replacement in the future, and could see a big leap after a full year of experience.
In the frontcourt, Sharon Goodman (3.7 PPG in 2020-21) is also back after missing all of last season with a torn ACL. That should be enough depth at forward as long as Czinano remains healthy. We could also see more of A.J. Ediger, a former high four-star prospect who saw limited action in 17 games last year as a first-year player.
The depth is a bit of a question mark, but Bluder has answered that with a terrific recruiting class featuring three top 100 prospects. Hannah Stuelke is the highest-regarded of the group and was Miss Iowa Basketball as a senior. The one I am looking at the most for this season, though, is Taylor McCabe, who holds her high school record with 389 three pointers. An offense like this can always use shooters, and McCabe could be an excellent spark plug off the bench.
Outlook
Injuries aside, this Iowa Hawkeyes roster has no excuses. It is, front to back, a powerhouse roster, led by a player of the year contender in Clark and one of the best forwards in the country in Czinano.
But this team also isn’t just two players. Warnock, Martin and Marshall are tremendous and could be stars elsewhere, but instead perfectly fill their roles to make Bluder’s system work to perfection. Bringing in Molly Davis was just icing on the cake, as her abilities as a scorer and passer should either help Clark find more space or allow for the Iowa offense to continue to flow, even when Clark is on the bench.
Finally, if all the proven talent wasn’t enough, Iowa has three excellent freshmen coming in that all could break out if needed, giving the Hawkeyes both an extremely high floor and one of the highest ceilings in college basketball.
With this much talent, there should only be one question: Can Iowa win a national championship? Broadly, I think the answer is yes, this roster is at least capable of it. But Iowa actually doing it will come down to two major things:
Defense. It got better last year and needs to continue to improve. The Hawkeyes don’t have to be a brick wall but they need to be able to make stops to take a burden off their scorers.
Clark’s efficiency and consistency. We all know how good Clark is and how she can flip a game on its head at a moment’s notice. But Clark has to limit the turnovers and she has to get her shooting numbers back up around where they were as a freshmen, something she’s absolutely capable of with this roster.
I don’t think either of those things are insane asks. Iowa most certainly should get to the second weekend this year and, truly, should get to the program’s first Final Four since 1993 with this blend of talent and experience.
Iowa is the Big Ten’s most electric team, a true tour de force of offensive firepower. It’s also likely the best one this year, and should have the expectations to match it.
Thank you to everyone who has read these team previews, they are a blast to make but are a whole lot of effort, so really, thank you.
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