2022-23 Big Ten Women's Basketball Preview: Michigan
Can Kim Barnes Arico make magic again without Naz Hillmon?
Rutgers aside (that team is finishing last in the Big Ten, folks), these last six teams I’m previewing are a notch above the rest. These six all made the NCAA Tournament last season and seem geared to do it again.
But at the bottom of this lofty tier, for me, is the team that made it the furthest in 2021-22.
Last week’s preview:
Michigan women’s basketball is not a storied program, recent successes make that easy to forget. I have said it before in this newsletter, but I think it should be stated again.
Before Kim Barnes Arico took over as head coach in 2012 (38 seasons):
Michigan had made the NCAA Tournament five times, ever
Michigan had two NCAA Tournament wins, both in the first round
Michigan’s best finish in the Big Ten since 2000 was a tie for fourth (2010-11)
Michigan had been ranked in the AP Top 25 at the end of a season once, ranking 25th in the 1999-2000 season
Since Barnes Arico has been at Michigan (10 seasons):
Five NCAA Tournament appearances (would be six with the COVID-canceled postseason)
Eight NCAA Tournament wins
The program’s first ever Sweet Sixteen and Elite Eight appearances (2021, 2022)
Top four finishes in the Big Ten in four of the past six seasons
Two straight finishes in the AP Poll (16th, 12th)
KBA has turned Michigan from afterthought to Big Ten power. Last year was her masterpiece, a decade of culmination leading to an Elite Eight appearance.
To help properly utilize the talent in the lineup, Michigan slowed down the pace, going from 139th to 201st in possessions per 40 minutes. The result was an offense that stayed efficient, but an improved defense that, by Big Ten standards, was absolutely smothering.
Aside from Rutgers, who played even slower and matched its good defense with some abhorrent offense, the Wolverines allowed the fewest points per game in the Big Ten. Their Her Hoops Stats overall rating of 13th was third best in the conference, and was helped by ranking in the top 20 nationally in offensive (17th) and defensive (20th) rating.
Michigan thrived on working the ball around to get smart shots, something made clear by the extremely high field goal percentage. That rate was also helped by how much the Wolverines worked the ball inside: they finished 322nd nationally in points from deep (19.3% of points).
Dear reader, why would Michigan do such a thing? You probably know the answer but please, let me have this.
Folks, it’s time to once again talk about Naz Hillmon.
Though Hillmon teased a three-point ability during an exhibition game, that’s all it ended up being. I mean, why shoot from 20-plus feet out when you can just make nearly 60 percent of your shots inside the arc?
Hillmon was a delight to watch, a true freak of nature that lacked a height advantage (6-2) and still just wrecked shit night in and night out. The offense gravitated around everything she did, whether it be her making a layup in double or triple coverage, or for her uncanny ability to read the double team and find an open teammate on the outside.
There was no one like her and her completely relentless motor on both sides of the floor. Even on a team that struggled shooting threes, Hillmon found space when it seemed impossible to do so. Now I get to watch her on the Atlanta Dream (hopefully) for years to come, and I can’t wait.
But yes, Hillmon is gone, and she isn’t the only veteran presence departing from the best team in program history.
Among the others leaving are Amy Dilk and Danielle Rauch, a pair of experienced guards whose contributions go far beyond the box score.
Let’s start with Dilk, who got injured mere minutes into her final season. She came back and played in 20 games, but was limited compared to former years. A healthy Dilk was a very solid point guard (3.9 APG or higher each of her first three seasons).
The opposite trajectory is true for Rauch. After a total of eight starts in her first three seasons, Rauch started every game in 2021-22 and more than doubled her points and rebounds per game from the season prior, while also adding more than a full assist per game (1.5 to 2.7). These contributions were essential to Michigan’s success last year, as was her unbelievable heart and leadership that was clear to anyone who watched her play.
So, while Hillmon’s stats are the clear void, Dilk and Rauch were also key pieces to this team. But so were Leigha Brown and Emily Kiser, two super seniors who decided to stay an extra season and will now be focal points to the new Michigan system.
Brown (14.0 PPG, 3.4 APG) was excellent last year, but dealt with a mid-season injury that slowed down her impressive early production. If she can stay healthy, she has the talent to be a clear No. 1 option.
Kiser, like Rauch, went from bench player (12.5 MPG, zero starts) to key starter (31.2 MPG, 32 starts) from 2020-21 to 2021-22. Her numbers soared to a near double-double (9.3 PPG, 8.1 RPG), all while improving her shooting efficiency to 44.4 percent. No one can replace Hillmon, but Kiser is a great interior presence who might be even better defensively. She entered the portal before deciding to stay in Ann Arbor, and it cannot be overstated how important that decision was for Michigan this season.
There are two other major returners I’m keeping an eye on next year. The first is Maddie Nolan, one of the best spot-up shooters in the Big Ten. Nolan went from a good shooter to a high-volume (168 attempts), highly efficient (40.5 percent) three-point shooter that Michigan desperately needed: Nolan alone accounted for 68 of the Wolverines’ 147 threes — 46.3 PERCENT OF ALL OF MICHIGAN’S THREE-POINT MAKES WERE BY NOLAN.
Nolan is also an extremely underrated defender, and this Klay Thompson-type role should be huge for the Wolverines once again.
There are a lot of interesting role players returning — Izabel Varejao and Elise Stuck should see a serious uptick in minutes — but I want to focus on one more returnee: Laila Phelia. For a group with so much experience, Phelia sure did get a lot of time last season, averaging 22.9 MPG. She used it well, averaging 8.8 PPG on a not-that-bad-for-a-freshman 37.5-percent shooting rate.
Those numbers are promising enough, but it was the real flashes in big moments that make me think Phelia is in for a big year two. Here are Phelia’s five highest scoring games of the season after a 12-point outing in November against Central Michigan, as well as the opponent they were against:
24 points against Iowa
19 points against Nebraska
16 points against Iowa
14 points against South Dakota
12 points against Baylor
Three of these games were against top 10 opponents. One of these games was in the Sweet Sixteen. The other game was against a Nebraska team that went 24-9 and absolutely should have been ranked the whole year.
When the big games arrived on the schedule, Phelia rose to the occasion. Even when she didn’t, she sure did try, going 4 of 17 in the Elite Eight against Louisville. There’s just something about Phelia’s confidence and ability to show up that makes me think she’s about to become a star.
Well, that was far too much content on the returnees, but there are simply less people to talk about with the new faces. I spoke about Greta Kampschroeder earlier this offseason and really like her potential. The Oregon State numbers aren’t overly exciting, but she has the talent to make some big contributions at guard, and could help out Nolan if she improves her three-point shot.
A top 50 prospect, a top 100 prospect and a talented Australian player is a very solid haul for the Wolverines, and I’m intrigued how much we will see of either Crockett or Evans in a deep front court looking to replace a whole lot of production. As said above, Kiser is excellent and players like Stuck and Varejao have been waiting, so it’ll be interesting how the minutes are dispersed there.
Kate Clarke, like the Iowa guard with an oddly similar name, seems to be a big-time scorer who can contribute from range, something that the Wolverines could desperately use.
Outlook
Hillmon, Dilk and Rauch were three of the most important players in reaching Michigan’s current mountain top, but there is more than enough talent for KBA to keep the Wolverines from falling into a slump.
A healthy Brown mixed with Kiser, Nolan and Phelia makes for a very solid core that is strong on both sides of the floor, and one that could be able to space out the offense more on the perimeter. That fifth starting spot is an intriguing one, and it could be the decider on if Michigan stays with a similar-ish look (Varejao, Stuck) or shifts to a more guard-heavy style of play (Kampschroeder, Clarke).
No matter what, this team can not and will not look the same without Naz Hillmon. She was a force too powerful and too one of a kind to replace, but Michigan has done extremely well in keeping a roster together that can still have similar aspirations.
I’m very excited to see what this Wolverines roster looks like. This is for sure an NCAA Tournament roster on paper, and if things go right in development — something Barnes Arico has done about as well as any coach in the country — maybe this team even makes it back into the second weekend.
I would have my doubts about that, but KBA has already pulled magic out of a program that was dead and buried for years. Nothing she does at this Michigan program should ever be a surprise anymore.
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