2022-23 Big Ten Women's Basketball Preview: Michigan State
Will the underclassmen duo that impressed last year make up for a lack of Nia Clouden?
This is the halfway mark for the Big Ten previews, and it belongs to my projected No. 7 team thanks to Rutgers still only having an eight-player roster. Not great over there!
The Scarlet Knights will likely be one of my last previews thanks to the roster’s continued… situation. Instead, it’s Michigan State time, a team that has more than double the roster total of Rutgers at this point.
Last week’s preview:
Michigan State had high hopes last season. With Nia Clouden back for one final year, the roster seemed ready to make some noise, even finishing 27th in voting for the preseason AP Poll. I was less convinced, ranking them eighth in the conference standings, but thought the potential was there thanks to Clouden and some solid supporting talent.
Not to brag or anything, but the Spartans did indeed finish eighth. It happened, though, due to plenty of things I could not predict.
The Spartans were rarely at full strength last season, with just five players on their roster playing in all 30 games. Julia Ayrault and Tory Ozment, two key rotational pieces, did not play a single game due to season-ending injuries. Alyza Winston, the team’s No. 2 scorer, played just 10 games and ultimately decided to enter the transfer portal.
It was a tumultuous year for head coach Suzy Merchant, and the Spartans still managed to stay at .500.
As a whole, Michigan State played much better than its record would suggest. Only one team — Texas A&M — finished with a higher Her Hoop Stats team rating than the Spartans while having a record of .500 or worse. Of course, being the best team that couldn’t win over half of their games isn’t a great consolation prize.
Michigan State was solid offensively, ranking seventh in the conference and top 60 nationally. That was largely in thanks to terrific three-point shooting, but the Spartans also hit 48.7 percent of their two-point attempts which was 89th in the country.
The efficiency likely came because of how well Merchant’s offense moved the ball. Michigan State averaged 17.0 assists per game and had a 66.8-percent assist rate, No. 15 and No. 8 in the country, respectively. That led to a terrific 1.11 assist-to-turnover ratio, which was a key indicator in how the team performed.
Michigan State was 13-5 when finishing with more or equal assists to turnovers, and just 2-10 when finishing with more turnovers. Obviously teams are worse when they turnover the ball, but it’s a pretty stark difference all the same.
The lackluster record can largely be attributed to the Spartans occasionally playing down to their competition. Yes, the injuries and surprise absences don’t help things, but none of these should have been losses:
2/6 @ Minnesota - 69.4% MSU win probability (71-60 loss)
1/9 vs. Purdue - 72.4% win probability (69-59 loss)
2/21 vs. Penn State - 81.2% win probability (79-71 loss)
11/23 @ St. Francis Brooklyn - 89.9% win probability (66-63 loss)
Of course, Michigan State did steal some wins as well, taking down Michigan (26.1 win%) and Nebraska (31.0%) at home. Still, this team feels like it underperformed in Clouden’s final season, and it certainly wasn’t her fault.
Clouden has been a true maniac throughout her time at Michigan State, finding opportunities to score regardless of how much attention she was given by the opposition. She was always extremely efficient, and last year was no different with 42.7/39.6/88.5 shooting splits.
Of her many offensive strengths, Clouden was specifically terrific at getting to the free throw line, and even better at converting. Her 6.4 attempts per game ranked 21st in the country, her 5.7 makes ranked fifth and her 88.5% success rate ranked 66th. She was fourth in percentage among players with at least five attempts per game (minimum 10 games).
Simply put, Clouden was excellent for Michigan State and there’s a reason she was a first-round pick in the WNBA Draft. But past her (and Winston, who left mid season), Farquhar and Smith make up the majority of the production that leaves, and neither of them were through the portal.
Even better for Sparty is the promise that two freshmen showed last season. One of those was expected: DeeDee Hagemann. The highly regarded high school prospect was one of the conference’s best playmakers as a freshman, averaging 5.3 assists per game. Her shooting was more erratic (32.8 FG%), but that was made up by Michigan State’s other star freshman, one that came so out of nowhere that I somehow missed mentioning her in last year’s preview entirely?
That would be Matilda Ekh, a 6-0 wing from Sweden that was an absolute menace from deep. Ekh averaged 11.8 PPG and shot 39.4 percent from deep, finishing top 70 nationally with 69 made threes. There was an 11-game span in conference play where Ekh made multiple threes in 10/11 games, hitting 37 deep balls at a blistering 48.1 percent efficiency.
Because Ekh was a freshman, she followed up that stretch by shooting 2 of 25 overall and 0 of 17 from deep in a pair of losses against Michigan and Ohio State, but it was clear by then just how impressive a shooter Ekh is, and it should only be better in year two.
Hagemann and Ekh are two key players for Michigan State to build around, and Merchant has done that with some transfers that have the potential to be massive additions. Elliott and McDaniel, from last year’s stats, seem like unexciting gets, but both of them had excellent campaigns prior:
Elliott - 13.6 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 1.3 SPG, 44.8 FG% at Clemson in 2020-21
McDaniel - 19.8 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 3.1 APG, 40.0 FG at Penn State in 2019-20
If either player can get back to the form that they have showed earlier in their collegiate careers, they are going to be massive contributors.
Visscher also should bring a lot to the table after an excellent year at Stephen F. Austin. She ranked 31st in the country with 9.1 win shares, and not just because of her solid scoring. She was also one of the best defenders in the country, ranking sixth with 4.4 defensive win shares. That was higher than any player in the Big Ten last season, and her presence could be a major jolt to a team that struggled on that side of the ball.
It seemed that Michigan State is looking for some new talent to replace Clouden, with a four-player class that is all guards. Hallock and Kimball were the initial signees, and both had excellent high school careers coming into East Lansing. Porter and Skorupski, from what I could find, did not get an official press release from Michigan State and I believe they are both walk-ons after impressing as seniors.
Outlook
Last year I thought people were slightly overestimating what Michigan State was going to be. This year, I think the opposite.
Yes, Clouden is gone, and yes, she was an unbelievably good player. But all of the roster shifting last season also led to both Hagemann and Ekh getting significant play time (each over 30 minutes per game) that allowed for a lot of the freshmen jitters to go away at a quicker rate. It reminded me of Ohio State’s 2019-20 season, which specifically started Jacy Sheldon, Kierstan Bell and Madison Greene off the right way.
I also have loved what Michigan State has done in the portal, buying low on players that could easily break out with a fresh start in a new place. McDaniel’s best years were in the Big Ten, and her volume scoring is key with Hagemann’s passing and Ekh’s deep shooting.
The weak point for the Spartans could be rebounding, where they were solid last year thanks largely to Farquhar and Smith. Taiyier Parks (8.5 PPG, 6.5 RPG) returns though, and the Ayrault-Ozment duo combined for 8.3 rebounds a game two seasons ago.
It’s crazy to think that Michigan State could improve after losing such a talented player like Clouden, but this roster is much deeper than the one last season if it stays healthy. McDaniel has the potential to be the primary scoring option and help fill some of that void, but will need to improve her efficiency if this team wants to reach new heights. I also love bringing in Visscher, who has proven to be a tremendous two-way player.
Michigan State likely makes the NCAA Tournament last season if it stayed healthy and together, and I think the same thing is true heading into this year. With the mix of new faces and some expected development from last year’s freshmen stars, the Spartans have a real shot at being a sneakily dangerous team, both in the Big Ten and nationally.
If you are interested in more Big Ten women’s basketball content like this, you can subscribe with the button at the top or bottom of the post, or share it with the button below. Thanks!