2022-23 Big Ten Women's Basketball Preview: Nebraska
Will last year's surprise team be able to keep the momentum going?
As has been the case for the past two months, Rutgers still has eight players, so I am still waiting to write that preview. In case anyone was wondering, it is almost September. Anyway.
There’s no doubt I will have a lot to say about Nebraska, so let’s just skip the intro and get down to business.
Last week’s preview:
If you read this newsletter you know there’s two things I love:
Giving myself credit
Nebraska women’s basketball
No. 2 probably happened because of No. 1, as there were few things I was more right about than Nebraska breaking out after winning just half of its games in 2020-21.
All of this adds up to a Nebraska team that could surprise a whole lot of people this season. It’s a shame for the Cornhuskers that the Big Ten looks so ridiculously stacked, because in most years this seems like a roster that should finish in the top five at worst.
While that is still a possibility, I see Nebraska instead as a NCAA Tournament team that will give anyone it plays against a true battle, except this year it should be with much more consistency than we had seen in the past.
I projected Nebraska to finish seventh in the Big Ten, and said it has the talent of a potential top five team. When the games actually happened, the Cornhuskers split the difference, finishing sixth with an 11-7 record in conference and a 24-9 record overall.
Past me being right, there was so much to enjoy about the Cornhuskers that we saw last season. This team, which had previously slowed down the tempo to mixed results, decided to go fast and to go ballistic on the three ball.
It worked.
Nebraska didn’t simply win 24 games, it beat the hell out of the majority of teams on its schedule. Twenty of the wins were by double digits. Ten were by 20+ points. Four were by 55 or more.
The Cornhuskers managed to do this thanks to one of the best offenses in the country. They were remarkably efficient across the board, finishing in the top 35 nationally in FG%, 2PT% (34th), 3PT%, Effective FG% (21st), Points Per Attempt (22nd) and Points Per Play (16th).
This was thanks largely to the free-flowing, selfless offense that head coach Amy Williams implemented. Nebraska averaged 17.4 assists per game, 12th in the NCAA, while also limiting turnovers for a tremendous 1.24 assist-to-turnover ratio that ranked 13th in the country.
Williams has led a three-point heavy offense prior to last year, but this was her most successful one to date. Nebraska hit 279 threes in 2021-22, 13th in the nation, but still remained impressively strong in the paint, both in scoring and with rebounds.
Defense is certainly an area that could improve, but it wasn’t bad last season either. Where it was bad, though, was in the losses: the Cornhuskers allowed 80.7 PPG in those nine defeats.
The high-powered offense also faltered in two huge games to end the season: the Big Ten Tournament semifinal and the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Nebraska shot a combined 33.8 percent in those two losses, but it’s hard to tell if those were more anomalies or a real problem to fix next season because of how different the defeats were.
In the loss to Iowa in the conference tournament, Nebraska shot 47.9 percent from inside the arc, but hit just 3 of its 26 three attempts (11.5 percent). Against Gonzaga in the NCAA Tournament, the Cornhuskers hit 9 of 22 (40.9 percent) from three, but just 9 of 34 (26.5 percent) from two, an astonishingly bad number.
This roster reached highs many didn’t anticipate last season, but still came short of its first tourney win since 2014.
To get into the Round of 32 for the first time in nine seasons, the Cornhuskers will have to do it without a handful of players from last year’s team.
Most of the players departing had small roles, but Ashley Scoggin and Bella Cravens started 25 and 15 games, respectively, and made solid impacts on the offensive end. Scoggin’s departure came in the middle of last season under circumstances you are free to Google for yourself, but the team has already won some big games without her because of that.
The arrival of Krull could be a good one, as she enters with 58 games of starting experience on a very good South Dakota team. Her shot could improve from the 35.2 percent rate of last season with some improved weapons around her, but regardless, she’s a capable defender and playmaker that can get solid minutes immediately.
But Nebraska’s success is likely based on even further development of the players that got them to 24 wins last season. Four of the Cornhuskers’ five primary starters return, all four of which led Nebraska in win shares last season. Those players are Jaz Shelley (8.1 win shares), Alexis Markowski (6.7), Sam Haiby (5.0) and Isabelle Bourne (4.9).
Let’s start with Shelley, who immediately became a star after transferring over from Oregon. Shelley led Nebraska in points (13.1), assists (3.9), steals (1.8) and blocks (0.9) while shooting 40.6 percent from three and hauling in 6.3 rebounds per contest. She was one of the best defensive guards in the conference and should only get better after another season in Williams’ system.
Markowski was the no-brainer Big Ten Freshman of the Year, averaging 12.8 PPG and 8.0 RPG while shooting 49.2 percent from the field and hitting half (!!!!!) of her 42 three attempts. Haiby’s offense didn’t take the strides I had anticipated, but her all-around talent was evident thanks to her 4.5 rebounds, 3.9 assists and 1.4 steals per contest.
Finally, I think Bourne’s presence for this team was severely understated. She was third with 11.1 PPG and did it on an extremely efficient 51.5 percent from the field, including 37.1 percent from three. These four players were excellent individually and even better together, and there’s room for each of their games — especially Markowski’s in year two — to grow.
Because of all the departures, Nebraska’s weakness is likely to be depth. Allison Weidner should step in as a permanent starter this season after nine starts as a freshman. Markowski got all the attention, but Weidner (7.2 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 2.2 APG, 45.9 FG%) was also great in year one and could make a big leap with extended minutes.
Past her, the Cornhuskers have a handful of breakout candidates, but will need more than one to fit that mold and fill out the bench. Kendall Coley saw the most game action of any bench returnee (11.2 MPG) but averaged just 2.4 PPG despite shooting well from everywhere on the court. If she can get more aggressive offensively, there’s a chance for a major increase in stats on her end.
Kendall Moriarty and Annika Stewart both saw less than 10 minutes per game last season, but were efficient shooters and could develop into great sixth options. Stewart especially was excellent in limited action, earning the third-highest player efficiency rating on the roster.
It is also important to not forget about Trinity Brady and Nailah Dillard, neither of which played last season due to injuries. Dillard came to Nebraska from Texas Tech two seasons ago but has missed both years due to surgeries on her hip and knee. Brady missed all of last season with injuries, but looked ready to breakout the last time she played back in 2020-21, scoring 17 points across a pair of starts on 6-of-12 shooting. If either of those two can return and stay healthy, it would be massive for what looks like a shallow Nebraska bench.
Of course, especially considering how well freshmen played for Nebraska last year, there could always be immediate contributions from either Callin Hake or Maggie Mendelson. Hake was a big-time scorer and four-time conference player of the year in high school, earning a three-point contest victory and a spot on the conference all-defense team, all things that should help earn her minutes.
Mendelson comes in with a little more buzz, partly because she will also be on Nebraska’s volleyball team that is among the very best in the country. She reclassified to the 2022 class and has experience on the US U-16 basketball team and the US U-18 volleyball team. I know the volleyball info isn’t important for this preview but good lord it’s still impressive.
Standing at 6-5, Mendelson has the frame to get immediate minutes. I’m not sure if the dual-sport portion will hurt her chances at play time as a freshman as she gets situated within the college game, but her freak athleticism and high national ranking as a basketball prospect makes me think we will see her plenty regardless.
Outlook
Nebraska has the majority of key contributors that made this team so much fun last year, and most of those players were either underclassmen or new to Williams’ system, so it is reasonable to expect to see each of these players improve in 2022-23.
I have almost no doubts in Shelley-Haiby-Bourne-Markowski being excellent once again this season. The offense was electric between these four and their abilities compliment each other well. I also think Weidner fits into the starting lineup pretty seamlessly if that’s what Williams decides to go with.
The question then becomes if the depth is good enough for Nebraska to not only stay at this level, but improve enough to make it out of the first round of the NCAA Tournament. After what I saw from the Cornhuskers last season, I’m inclined to say that it is thanks to impressively fast development from pretty much the entire roster under Williams.
I like Nebraska so much because of the energy that it played with all last year, a fire that is hard to fully describe unless you watch this team. The Cornhuskers were immensely fun, from the efficient passing, the team-first mentality (a top 10 offense nationally with no players above 13.1 PPG) to the three-point barrages to the elite bench mob. Those vibes are hard to replicate, and I think Williams has done a magnificent job at making them a foundation for this program.
Nebraska was a fun surprise in 2021-22, but now the Cornhuskers are back and they want to stay here. They certainly have the pieces at the top to make that happen, but it may come down to the rest of the roster to see if another level is possible this season. The roster is still young, but it’s more than ready to keep winning right now.
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