2022-23 Big Ten Women's Basketball Preview: Penn State
Can someone, anyone, please help this team succeed while Makenna Marisa is here
Before the preview starts, I want to give a shout out to Naz Hillmon, whose Michigan jersey would be in the Hoopla rafters if such a thing existed.
Hillmon was drafted in the second round by the Atlanta Dream this year. That was great, but it also meant she would have to fight for a roster spot considering how many second/third-round picks get cut before ever seeing game action.
Not only did Hillmon get a spot, but she is developing very well for a Dream roster competing for a playoff position earlier than expected. This past week showed just how much Hillmon has improved when she earned her first career double-double (13 points, 11 rebounds) against the Connecticut Sun. She then followed that up with her first career WNBA start, helping the Dream take down the Phoenix Mercury in a pivotal game for playoff aspirations.
Hillmon is up to 3.5 PPG and 4.0 RPG on the season, numbers that keep going up as she gets more opportunities. You never know in the WNBA, but it appears the former Michigan standout is doing enough to stay on the roster for at least another year as Atlanta keeps developing its young talent. Hell yes, Naz.
Last week’s preview:
These previews are meant to show the reasons why fans or newcomers to Big Ten women’s basketball should be interested in whatever team is being discussed. That means that I want to be optimistic about these teams instead of looking for every potential flaw.
I’m still going to do that here because Penn State absolutely could be good next year. But man, the Nittany Lions keep giving me reasons to be pessimistic.
By Her Hoop Stats’ team metric, Penn State was about as average as a team could be. But looking deeper, the Nittany Lions continued to do what they have done for all three years under head coach Carolyn Kieger: score and get scored on a lot.
The first part makes sense: Even through this rough patch as a program, Penn State has consistently maintained a solid offensive output thanks to its quick pace and, more recently, its primary scoring option (we will get to that). But why the Nittany Lions continue to be among the worst defensive teams in college basketball is a mystery that desperately needs solving this season.
Pace cannot be a full excuse for this: Kieger’s best Marquette team, which played quite fast, had elite offense and defense metrics. It might not all be on coaching, but something is clearly not clicking for the Nittany Lions in recent years.
Something was not clicking with this team in a lot of areas last year. Where that was not true is with Makenna Marisa.
Marisa is Penn State’s own Caitlin Clark on offense. She is an exceptional talent who makes difficult shots over and over again while finding open teammates. Her numbers don’t tell the full story, but they do a pretty good job of it:
22.2 PPG (7th in the nation)
4.2 APG (97th)
32.2% Usage (41st)
5.6 Offensive Win Shares (65th)
Marisa is going into her senior year. Her production went way up as a junior without losing efficiency. This is a bona fide star that could lead the Nittany Lions to a lot of wins with some added support. It would also help if Marisa improves on defense, where she was as bad as the rest of the roster.
But while Marisa rose to stardom, some players I expected to make jumps did the complete opposite. Kelly Jekot looked like a perfect second option in limited action for Penn State two seasons ago. Maddie Burke had an extremely promising freshman year in 2020-21.
Then 2021-22 happened.
Jekot - 15.9 PPG, 6.8 RPG in 2020-21 (7 games)
3.8 PPG, 2.3 RPG in 2021-22 (28 games)
Burke - 8.9 PPG, 35.5 FG%, 35.4 3PT%, 3.5 RPG in 2020-21 (24 games)
2.8 PPG, 27.9 FG%, 19.5 3PT%, 1.7 RPG in 2021-22 (29 games)
This is odd.
Regression happens, sure, but for two players to not just regress, but to decline this sharply after strong debut seasons with the team is not a great indicator of development. Now, both are gone: Jekot graduated and Burke transferred to Villanova. It will be worth keeping an eye on how the latter does with the Wildcats, as I suspect Burke will bounce back in a big way.
These are losses larger than what the box score would have indicated last season. That being said, Penn State has generally done a good job this offseason at bringing in talent.
Since the Nittany Lions decided to move on from Burke and Jekot last season, right or wrong, they did not lose any major producers. Leilani Kapinus (9.6 PPG) and Ali Brigham (8.4 PPG) return, giving Penn State its top three scorers from last season. Yes, Marisa did average a whole 12.6 more points per game than any of her teammates. I think the Nittany Lions would like for that gap to decrease a little.
Before talking about the transfers in, I want to highlight two returning players in particular: Kapinus and Alli Campbell. The former enjoyed a lovely redshirt freshman campaign after missing her first year with an injury. Kapinus finished second on the team in scoring, led the team with 5.7 rebounds and 2.0 steals per game and was the only player on the roster with an even serviceable defensive rating (94.3, 39th percentile among Division-I players).
Maybe most importantly, Kapinus improved as the year went on. She broke out for 20 points against Youngstown State on Dec. 12, then showed terrific consistency, scoring 10+ points in 14 of her final 19 games.
Campbell could very easily do something similar to Kapinus this year. She has the first half of the storyline done after sitting out her first year at Penn State with an injury. But Campbell does have some prior collegiate experience, getting limited action at Notre Dame before entering the portal.
The stats might not be there yet, but Campbell was also extremely well regarded as a prospect, earning five-star status by ESPN as the 27th-best player in the 2020 class. Giving Marisa a true point guard could help the natural scorer work more off the ball, and it might take Penn State’s offense to even higher levels.
The new transfers will help there too, as well as on defense. Thompson is the most proven player of the bunch after absolutely dominating last year in East Carolina. She was valuable on both sides of the floor for the Pirates and should be an immediate contributor.
Chanaya Pinto went from junior college to Oregon, and while she didn’t make a large impact there, former Ducks sure have flourished in the Big Ten recently (see: Taylor Mikesell, Jaz Shelley). Hey speaking of junior college, Ivane Tensaie excites me. Yes, this will be a big jump in competition, but for a freshman to put up those numbers at any level out of high school is absurd. She earned NJCAA Freshman of the Year for her efforts, and has the potential to develop into a key offensive option thanks to her shooting ability.
Finally, Alexa Williamson is a valuable interior presence who was strong on both sides of the floor, racking up blocks and offensive rebounds at impressive rates. These are all excellent additions that should, should, make for an improved Penn State team.
I haven’t even talked about the freshmen, who also could see immediate time. Shay Ciezki was a tremendous scorer, especially from deep, in high school, and could battle with Campbell for time at point guard. Dia brings national team experience, which could lead to a quicker transition to the college game.
Outlook
Penn State has been worth watching during these not-good-very-bad years because it had the benefit of being a fun bad team. The Nittany Lions have refused to play defense, but they could score to keep games interesting and even steal a few here and there.
They also have been worth watching because they have managed to hold on to one of the country’s best offensive weapons despite being so lackluster.
This year could be the team’s last with Marisa, and I think Kieger knew this, bringing in real, immediate scorers who also have been strong defenders. I think this is the most firepower I have seen on a Nittany Lions roster since I started covering the conference.
I have almost no doubt that Penn State will keep up the offensive performances it has been, and improvement is more than possible if players develop properly (not a given). The big, fat question mark is the same one I said above: defense. Penn State does not have to be a brick wall, but it would help to be any sort of wall compared to the one-ply toilet paper that has been shredded through for years now.
The best trajectory for this roster may be 2020-21 Iowa, which ranked second in the country in points for (86.1 PPG) and dead last in points allowed (80.3 PPG). Do I think Penn State will get this high into either extreme? No, but that Hawkeyes team finished 20-10 and made the NCAA Tournament, so I’m sure that would be considered a success for a team that has not even finished with a winning record since 2017.
This is the first 2022-23 team preview where I could see a true, genuine path to the Field of 68 in March. I’m certainly not projecting that, but if the defense gets to at least mediocre, the offense improves from already very good to one of the best in the country and Marisa stays the star she was last year, getting over .500 and more is absolutely on the table.
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