2022-23 Big Ten Women's Basketball Preview: Purdue

Will the Boilermakers turn momentum into a NCAA Tournament berth?

A certain ruling on a certain quarterback for a certain team I care about happened today, but let’s not talk about that.

Let’s talk about Purdue, who has, above all else, excellent vibes.

Last week’s preview:

2022-23 Big Ten Women's Basketball Preview: Northwestern

In a lot of ways, last season felt like a reset for Purdue. Now 23 years removed from the 1999 national championship, the Boilermakers’ lengthy run of mostly sustained success had come to an end. Sharon Versyp, who had coached Purdue to nine NCAA Tournaments in her first 11 seasons, had gone four straight years without making the big dance.

The last of those four years was a 7-16 campaign that was Purdue’s worst since a 5-23 year all the way back in 1983-84. The plan then was to give Versyp one final year at the helm in 2021-22 before Katie Geralds takes over as her replacement. But, reports that Versyp created a “toxic and hostile environment” surfaced, leading to her retirement a year early.

So, enter Geralds: a decorated Purdue alum, a former first round pick in the WNBA and a dominant Division II head coach at Marian, winning 227 of her 276 games and earning a pair of national titles. How did she do in her first year?

All things considered: well!

Purdue got back above .500 and stayed competitive in a tough Big Ten, often acting as the middle man of the conference by beating the lower-rung teams while taking basically zero wins from the Big Ten’s best.

Purdue’s best in-conference victory was a road victory against Michigan State, who finished in eighth, right above the Boilermakers. The other six wins came from Minnesota (10th), Penn State (11th), Rutgers twice (13th) and Illinois twice (14th). But hey, at least they were winning these games.

Geralds got Purdue working well offensively thanks to efficient shot making and an emphasis on finding the open player: Purdue’s 15.8 assists per game ranked 23rd nationally, and its 61.9-percent assisted shot rate was 44th. A lot of those assists came thanks to an emphasis on the three-ball, where Purdue took 738 attempt, 32nd in the NCAA.

The only area the Boilermakers struggle in on offense was drawing fouls, as they scored just 15.3 percent of their points from the charity stripe, 291st in the country.

Defensively, Purdue was excellent at containing points to inside the arc. Opponents shot just 27.6 percent from three, good for 30th in the nation. That did mean, though, that the opposition had success on the interior, where the Boilermakers gave up the 13th-most two-pointers with 645.

But all of these numbers aren’t really what sells me on Purdue, and Geralds, long term. That came from the energy of the team, which felt significantly different than the end of Versyp’s tenure. Purdue was fun last year, and it seemed to radiate in a lot of what the team accomplished.

It also seemed clear that Purdue was only going to get better. After a 1-1 WNIT stint, many of the players on the roster took to Twitter to confirm how locked in they are for next season, which I talked about in a previous Hoopla.

While there has been some turnover, it has not been anything that changes my view of what this program could be, either next year or in the very near future.

Of the departures, Ra Shaya Kyle and Brooke Moore stand out. Kyle was limited to nine games last year but showed off her abilities as a scorer, while Moore was the team’s most efficient three-point shooter who mad her presence felt in less than 20 minutes per game off the bench.

Still, neither of these are backbreaking losses, and the two additions from the portal may make up most of the production themselves. First, Caitlyn Harper, last year’s WAC Player of the Year after putting up despicable numbers for Cal Baptist. Harper has been remarkably efficient as a scorer throughout her collegiate career and adds value defensively, where she averaged over a block and a steal per game.

Transitioning to the Big Ten can be difficult, but this level of offensive ability will help Purdue immediately. The other transfer, Lasha Petree, will understand that after a season at Rutgers where she put up solid numbers, but not quite the 18.0 PPG she had at Bradley in 2020-21. But Petree is now in year two in the conference and found her three-point efficiency with the Scarlet Knights, so she should thrive in a system more built around the perimeter.

The Boilermakers are returning eight players from last year’s roster, including all five of the team’s top players in win shares: Abbey Ellis (4.2 win shares), Madison Layden (3.0), Jeanae Terry (2.9), Rickie Woltman (2.9) and Cassidy Hardin (2.0).

Ellis was specifically tremendous in her first year with Purdue, averaging 11.5 PPG and 3.0 APG while significantly improving her efficiency from her time at Cal Poly (39.4% in 2020-21, 46.5% in 2021-22). Madison Layden did the reverse, shooting just 34.7% as a sophomore last year, but added 4.6 RPG, 2.8 APG and 1.7 SPG to stay productive.

The return of Terry is a massive one. She elected to enter the portal, but decided to stay in West Lafayette after putting up a stat line of 7.2 PPG/7.0 RPG/5.7 APG, making her a consistent triple-double threat. Woltman was Purdue’s best defender last year and did well on the interior, while Hardin is a veteran who almost strictly shoots from three (7.3 3PT attempts per game, 8.0 total attempts per game).

Of all the returnees, two second-year players stand out for me. The first is Skye Williams, a former top-100 prospect who sat out last year due to injury. The other is Ava Learn, who had one of the most efficient seasons in the Big Ten last season. If these two underclassmen perform well, along with the incoming freshmen, then Purdue have one of the deepest rosters in the conference.

All three freshmen seem ready to make an impact. Ainhoa Holzer has the most translatable experience after winning sixth woman and most improved player last year in Switzerland, but both of her fellow commits are ranked highly by ESPN. With Terry and Ellis back, Potts may have more of a development year at point guard before taking over. But Lilly Stoddard adds size to a team with just one player — Woltman — listed as 6-3 or taller. That could lead to some sizable minutes for the first-year player.

Outlook

I really like this Purdue roster, and I think it is ready to make the NCAA Tournament this year if it stays healthy.

There were some sizable losses to the transfer portal, sure, but they don’t compare to what Purdue returns from last year’s roster, and bringing in a pair of veteran guards that can make large contributions keeps the Boilermakers on the same trajectory.

At the least, I expect Purdue to stay at or around the tournament bubble, and I think if a few things go its way, the Boilermakers are dancing next March. What are those things?

1. A bounce-back year for Layden, specifically with her shot. For a player that hit more than 40 percent of her threes as a freshman, this feels more likely than not.

2. Solid contributions from Learn and Williams. This team has a lot of experience that will likely eat a lot of minutes, but the potential that these two bring should not be overlooked, and they could make the difference between a good or a great year for this team.

3. A No. 1 option emerging. Whether that be Ellis, Layden, Harper or someone else, Purdue could benefit from having a go-to player down the stretch of a game. Spreading the offense out is great, but this may be the key to beating more than just the bottom tier of the Big Ten.

None of these things feel like long shots to happen, and that’s why I like so much of what Geralds has done here so quickly.

Last season, Purdue was a fun story. This season, Purdue should stay fun, but could also get much, much closer to the glory that the program used to be known for.

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