2024 Big Ten Tournament Predictions
Featuring some chaos in the middle with the top teams proving their dominance
Tonight begins a month of what I could only describe as the most wonderful time of the year.
The Big Ten Tournament kicks off this evening with a pair of matchups, and it starts five days of thrilling, significant basketball to a whole lot of teams within this tournament.
A lot of postseason seedings and placements are on the line here, so let’s quickly take a look at projections for what seem to be the three bubble teams this conference has at the moment:
Maryland: The Athletic: 11 seed, Last Four In | ESPN: 11 seed, Last Four Byes | Her Hoop Stats: 10 seed
Michigan: Athletic: 11 seed, L4I | ESPN: 10 seed, L4B | HHS: 10 seed
Penn State: Athletic: Next Four Out | ESPN: First Four Out | HHS: F4O
All three of these teams could really use at least one win in this tournament to feel comfortable going into Selection Sunday. Penn State likely needs two for safety, and one to stay in contention.
But that’s just part of this Big Ten Tournament picture.
Monday’s Hoopla:
It’s time for me to look really smart or really dumb.
I’m going to pick all 13 matchups this tournament has to offer, which some explanations as to why. If a matchup has an asterisk (*) next to it, that matchup is not official, but what I am predicting to happen based on other picks.
No. 12 Purdue vs. No. 13 Northwestern
Purdue: 12-17 (5-13 Big Ten), NET Ranking: 72
Northwestern: 9-20 (4-14 Big Ten), NET: 195
Head-to-head: 2/14 — Purdue (A) 74, Northwestern 48
The tournament gets started with the Boilermakers and Wildcats. The one matchup between these teams was a rout, on the road, in favor of Purdue.
The Caitlyn Harper injury complicates things for Purdue. She’s a key veteran piece that will be hard to replace, but I do believe the Boilermakers have enough depth and experience to at least survive being the first exit.
My pick: Purdue
No. 11 Minnesota vs. No. 14 Rutgers
Minnesota: 15-14 (5-13 Big Ten), NET: 64
Rutgers: 8-23 (2-16 Big Ten), NET: 155
Head-to-head: 2/13 — Rutgers (H) 81, Minnesota 73
The loss of Mara Braun has perfectly matched with the Gophers losing 10 of their final 11 games, including one to last-place Rutgers. Mya Petticord and Destiny Adams combined for 46 points that game, and that result could lead to Minnesota coming out with more fire than we have seen recently.
However, I’m still concerned. Minnesota didn’t just lose its two games last week, it lost them by a combined 104 points. The Gophers scored 39 points against a Penn State defense that, while improved, allows over 71 points per game on average.
This is basically a home game for Minnesota, but I think Rutgers is playing with more energy right now, so I’m going to go with the upset if this one stays close late.
My pick: Rutgers
No. 8 Maryland vs. No. 9 Illinois
Maryland: 17-12 (9-9 Big Ten), NET: 35
Illinois: 14-14 (8-10 Big Ten), NET: 48
Head-to-head: 1/20 — Maryland (H) 90, Illinois 82 | 2/11 — Maryland (A) 69, Illinois 53
The Terps have handled business against the Illini this season, and did it in two very different types of contests. They have proven capable of running with the fast-paced Illinois style, or mucking it up in a low-scoring affair.
That, plus the NCAA Tournament implications, makes me believe that Maryland will make it a perfect 3 for 3. I do think Illinois has played well lately and this should be a close one, especially if Kendall Bostic can take advantage on the interior. I also believe firmly that it is hard to beat a team three times in a season. However, I do think the Terps should have enough weapons to advance.
My pick: Maryland
No. 5 Nebraska vs. No. 12 Purdue*
Nebraska: 19-10 (11-7 Big Ten), NET: 30
Head-to-head: 1/31 — Nebraska (H) 68, Purdue 54 | 2/17 — Nebraska (A) 77, Purdue 65
A similar situation to the one above, with the Cornhuskers winning both matchups against the Boilermakers this season by double digits. As also said previously, the loss of Harper for this is crucial. The paper sure is saying this should be a Nebraska win.
However.
Maybe I’m feeling a little silly, but I have a feeling Purdue is going to come into this tournament with more fire than just about anyone. This is a team with a core of players who are out of eligibility, one of which went down with a season-ending injury. This team likely doesn’t have another tournament to look forward to, and has been at the wrong end of several close matchups (3-8 record in single-digit games).
Katie Geralds is among the most fiery coaches in the country, and it’ll take huge performances from Jeanae Terry and Abbey Ellis to do it. But I am, maybe foolishly, predicting the Boilermakers to advance into Friday here. Nebraska has not been immune to the random loss this season, and I don’t think a defeat gets them close to the NCAA Tournament bubble.
The Big Ten Tournament has been a whole lot of chalk the past few seasons, let’s get some madness into this March event.
My pick: Purdue
No. 7 Penn State vs. No. 10 Wisconsin
Penn State: 18-11 (9-9 Big Ten), NET: 26
Wisconsin: 13-15 (6-12 Big Ten), NET: 123
Head-to-head: 2/11 — Wisconsin (H) 69, Penn State 64
This is the game I’m most excited about before Friday. Wisconsin won a few weeks back in the midst of Penn State’s February slide, but the Nittany Lions have won back-to-back entering the tournament.
Both of these teams are fighting for tournament berths, Penn State with the NCAA and Wisconsin with the WNIT, where the Badgers have not been since 2011. This game is *huge* for both programs.
Even though Penn State has fixed the momentum, I still don’t know what its answer will be for Serah Williams, who had 31 points, 15 rebounds, 4 steals and 3 blocks in the last meeting. Makenna Marisa (4 points, 1/6 FG) having a better shooting day could be the answer, but if Williams gets any sort of help compared to the last matchup, it might be a long day for the Nittany Lions.
Give me the Badgers in a rock fight. This team has scrapped and clawed its way through this season, and I think they will have the edge in a close contest.
My pick: Wisconsin
No. 6 Michigan vs. No. 14 Rutgers*
Michigan: 18-12 (9-9 Big Ten), NET: 51
Head-to-head: 1/21 — Michigan (A) 56, Rutgers 50 | 2/10 — Michigan (H) 86, Rutgers 58
Quick aside, how did every one of these matchups have a game between Feb. 10 and Feb. 17 so far? Am I missing something?
Anyway, I think the Wolverines would be happy to get matched up with the Scarlet Knights here after handling business with them in both matchups. Again, three matchups with the same team is tough, but Michigan can likely lock an NCAA Tournament spot by taking care of business here.
I think the Wolverines have been excellent defensively over the past few weeks, and should be able to shut down the Rutgers attack to win comfortably here.
My pick: Michigan
No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 8 Maryland*
Ohio State: 25-4 (16-2 Big Ten), NET: 7
Head-to-head: 1/17 — Ohio State (A) 84, Maryland 76 | Ohio State (H) 76, Maryland 66
Another matchup with a 2-0 advantage on the season. I could see this one playing out as many Ohio State games do: A back-and-forth first half where Maryland hits some shots and gets a halftime lead, only for the Buckeyes to come out of halftime with their heads on fire, dominate the third quarter and somewhat coast to a victory.
Ohio State does love to do this, but I think it’s especially possible when getting Maryland on a back-to-back for a roster already hurt for depth by injuries. The Buckeyes need this and more to stay in 1-seed talks, and I think they get it done in Ohio State fashion.
My pick: Ohio State
No. 4 Michigan State vs. No. 12 Purdue*
Michigan State: 22-7 (12-6 Big Ten), NET: 21
Head-to-head: 1/24 — Michigan State (H) 97, Purdue 70 | Michigan State (A) 68, Purdue 59
This is where I would have the Purdue miracle run end. It would be asking a lot to try and win a third game in three days against a second straight NCAA Tournament team, and the Spartans are such a well-oiled machine offensively that they should be able to attack any sort of let up.
If this is Nebraska instead, I would still take Michigan State here because I think the Spartans have played truly elite basketball since losing to Indiana and Ohio State. This is not a team to be taken lightly by anybody right now.
My pick: Michigan State
No. 2 Iowa vs. No. 10 Wisconsin*
Iowa: 26-4 (15-3 Big Ten), NET: 5
Head-to-head: 12/10 — Iowa (A) 87, Wisconsin 65 | 1/16 — Iowa (H) 96, Wisconsin 50
Pending an outrageous dud from the Hawkeyes’ stars, I don’t see a strong path to Wisconsin pulling the upset here. Williams could certainly find some scoring inside, but Iowa is a strong rebounding team and has simply too many weapons to contain, including the big one at point guard.
With this tournament being a sell-out, which is absolutely incredible by the way, Iowa should be expected to have quite the turnout for its matchups. The Hawkeyes should get to the semifinals with relative ease.
My pick: Iowa
No. 3 Indiana vs. No. 6 Michigan*
Indiana: 24-4 (15-3 Big Ten), NET: 12
Head-to-head: 1/4 — Indiana (H) 80, Michigan 59
The Friday matchups feel the least likely to deliver on upsets, and I don’t expect one here either. If I was picking one to keep an eye on though, I would probably look here.
The Hoosiers dominated the Wolverines the only time they played on the back of a perfect, literally perfect, first quarter. The Hoosiers will probably miss a shot in every quarter this time, and maybe the Wolverines play with a little extra fire after having that happen.
This gets especially interesting if both Mackenzie Holmes and Lilly Meister are out. Indiana would have to go small, and that could open up big opportunities for Michigan’s post players. I don’t think the Wolverines are the team to fully take advantage of that, however, and I think Indiana pulls this one out either way.
My pick: Indiana
No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 4 Michigan State*
Head-to-head: 1/14 — Ohio State (H) 70, Michigan State 65 | Ohio State (A) 86, Michigan State 71
So, here we are, back at chalk in the semifinals. This feels accurate to how the regular season went though, with the middle eating itself alive while the top teams proved above the rest.
That being said, I struggled with this one. I honestly, truly think this one is going down to the wire, and the Spartans are capable of taking down the top seed. There’s a chance Ohio State is ever so slightly looking ahead to a potential Iowa rematch, and Michigan State, for as good as this season has been, has not been able to knock off one of the top teams.
I am expecting a back-and-forth war here, but I do think Ohio State’s defense can give the Spartans just enough of an issue to sneak out of this and get to the title game. In the end, I go with the “easy” pick, sure, but I don’t expect it to feel easy.
My pick: Ohio State
No. 2 Iowa vs. No. 3 Indiana*
Head-to-head: 1/13 — Iowa (H) 84, Indiana 57 | 2/22 — Indiana (H) 86, Iowa 66
We deserve part three to this.
Indiana-Iowa is the Big Ten matchup that feels most like a rivalry, and with a blowout on each side this year, another round feels necessary.
Let me be transparent with you: If I had confirmation that Mackenzie Holmes would be a full go in this game, I would lean the Hoosiers to move on. Unfortunately, Teri Moren has not been able to be definitive on Holmes’ availability as of writing this, and I’m preparing for, at best, a minutes restriction to avoid a larger injury before the NCAA Tournament.
A limited Holmes on a back-to-back makes it difficult for the Hoosiers, but I also know how bad Holmes would want this win. No matter what happens with that situation, I think we are in for another high-energy, high-tension battle between two of the country’s best teams. Caitlin Clark struggled with Indiana’s adaptations the last time, and I’m curious how that chess match goes here.
As things stand, I think the Hawkeyes learn from that Indiana loss, come in fired up, and find a way here to get to their third straight Big Ten championship game.
My pick: Iowa
Championship: No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 2 Iowa*
Head-to-head: 1/21 — Ohio State (H) 100, Iowa 92 (OT) | 3/3 — Iowa (H) 93, Ohio State 83
My predictions lead to a rematch of last year’s Big Ten title game. If you’ve forgotten that result, I wouldn’t blame you. It was Iowa 105, Ohio State 72. The Hawkeyes were up 61-24 at half. It was complete and total domination.
That result, paired with the game these two just played that had a tad bit of controversy with technical fouls, leads me to believe that Ohio State is going to really, really want this one. That’s not to say Iowa won’t, obviously, as a three-peat Big Ten champion run in Caitlin Clark’s final season is plenty of incentive.
All of that is to say: I’m expecting fireworks. Both teams want a 1-seed, both teams have proven capable of beating each other and both teams just played a heated matchup that will have happened one week from this game’s start.
I do not expect a 33-point slaughter either way on this one, but with Molly Davis potentially out for the conference tournament (but thankfully not the season), that little bit of missing depth could go a big way for two teams playing their third game in three days.
The X-factors for me in this hypothetical matchup are easy ones. On Iowa, I think it’ll take Gabbie Marshall’s best offensive showing to get here. She has turned it on in March plenty before, but (likely) without Davis, it’ll become that much more important. For Ohio State, Cotie McMahon has to find that ignition as well. She had 10 points last time out against the Hawkeyes and needs to be more aggressive getting to the rim instead of settling for deeper looks.
I’m predicting McMahon will do just that, attack the Hawkeyes, and that Ohio State will eek out the Big Ten title in the process. Call this one near a coin flip in my book, but if I have to lean, I’m leaning the Buckeyes getting revenge on the recent defeat.
My pick: Ohio State
Here’s my full bracket of picks, with the game dates, times and channel information, is in the graphic below:
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