2025 Big Ten Tournament Predictions
A closer look at every matchup this week, even the ones I make up in my head
There’s a tournament starting in mere hours! Let’s not waste any time.
That said, I did pick my season awards on Monday if you are interested in what I would have chosen. I was in the ballpark of most choices that were actually made by the coaches and media, but certainly disagreed with a few.
My Honors:
Indianapolis will play host to 14 matchups between the 15 best teams in the Big Ten, with Rutgers earning the final spot in the tournament late last week. Ohio State and Maryland held onto the double byes, while Indiana and Oregon held on to one bye over Nebraska and Iowa via tiebreakers.
As far as the NCAA Tournament picture goes, the Big Ten is projected to have 13 teams in, as of ESPN’s latest Bracketology. That means about 87 percent of this bracket is filled with teams that are fighting to move up in seeding or make the tourney altogether.
In case this tourney needed any more ammunition to get the people excited, the very first game is perhaps the most significant for Big Dance implications.
Note: Teams below with an asterisk (*) are not confirmed for that specific matchup, but would happen based on my predictions of how the bracket will go.
Wednesday
Washington (12) vs. Minnesota (13)
3:30 p.m. EST, Peacock
Regular Season Matchup: 2/26 at Minnesota - 72-62 WAS
Current NCAA Tournament Projection: WAS - 11 seed, Last Four In | MIN - 11 seed, Last Four In
The Big Ten has two teams listed firmly on ESPN’s bubble, and they are the Huskies and Golden Gophers. This game is MASSIVE for both teams involved, as it may just be enough to feel a little safe on Selection Sunday.
Washington comes into the matchup with much more momentum. The Huskies have won four straight games, including one on the road against this very Minnesota team. Elle Ladine has turned into a flamethrower, but this unit thrives through its Core Four of Ladine, Dalayah Daniels, Sayvia Sellers and Hannah Stines. No one else on Washington averages more than 20 minutes or 5 points per game, which could be an issue if Washington goes on a tournament run.
It is now confirmed that Mara Braun will not return this season, but Minnesota has gotten to 20 wins without her thanks to some key contributions up and down the roster. This is a team that plays very turnover-averse basketball, and limiting mistakes could be significant in a postseason atmosphere.
Ladine was lights out in Washington’s win over Minnesota with 26 points on 10-of-13 shooting, leading the way for a Huskies team that shot 58 percent overall. I don’t expect that level of success in a rematch, and with both teams enjoying a slower pace, I could see this being a low-scoring matchup that comes down to the final moments. That makes me give Washington the slight advantage, as its core unit feels more reliable, though Minnesota’s depth could be the X-factor.
Prediction: Washington
Nebraska (10) vs. Rutgers (15)
~6 p.m., Peacock
Regular Season Matchup: 1/12 at Rutgers - 69-62 NEB
Current NCAA Tournament Projection: NEB - 10 seed, Last Four Byes
The Cornhuskers could really use any wins to bolster their résumé, and they have a good chance to do so here.
Rutgers took down Penn State to get into this bracket, but with Kiyomi McMiller out for… reasons, it will take a truly herculean performance from Destiny Adams to get the Scarlet Knights to pull off the upset.
I just think Nebraska has too many weapons for Rutgers to slow down. McMiller would help dramatically in countering that, but without her, I think the Cornhuskers should advance with relative ease.
Prediction: Nebraska
Iowa (11) vs. Wisconsin (14)
~8:30 p.m., Peacock
Regular Season Matchup: 3/2 at Iowa - 81-66 IOWA
Current NCAA Tournament Projection: IOWA - 6 seed
These two teams concluded their regular season against each other, and they get to start their postseasons against each other. How nice!
The Hawkeyes are a team I would not want to face in this tournament: Iowa has won 8 of 10, and the two losses are to Ohio State in OT and UCLA by 2. This team has seemed to really figure out its identity down the stretch. Wisconsin has proven capable of beating a upper-tier Big Ten team when it took down Michigan, but has faltered in every other opportunity to do so.
To be fair to the Badgers, this was a tied game at half before the Hawkeyes ultimately took over. If Serah Williams can avoid foul trouble and outplay Hannah Stuelke, I think there’s a chance for a big-time upset. I’m still rolling with Iowa though, as this team is playing its best basketball at the right time.
Prediction: Iowa
Thursday
Oregon (8) vs. Indiana (9)
Noon, BTN
Regular Season Matchup: 1/24 at Oregon - 54-47 ORE
Current NCAA Tournament Projection: ORE - 10 seed, Last Four Byes | IU - 10 seed, Last Four Byes
Another absolute banger to start Day 2. While I don’t think either of these teams are at risk of missing the NCAA Tournament, a win could be huge to avoid having to play in the First Four.
Oregon is a team that prefers scoring inside, while the Hoosiers are a much stronger team from deep. That said, when these two teams met in January, neither of them could score from anywhere. They barely could hit free throws (11 of 20 combined).
Maybe it’ll be a low-scoring affair once again, but in their home state, I think I give Indiana the advantage. It’s a veteran group of guards, most of whom have played together for three seasons. Oregon has exceeded expectations and has been specifically great at closing close games, but I lean toward what the Hoosiers’ main unit can bring.
Prediction: Indiana
Michigan (5) vs. Washington (12)*
~2:30 p.m., BTN
Regular Season Matchup: 1/15 at Michigan - 82-69 UM
Current NCAA Tournament Projection: UM - 7 seed
The one time these two teams met, Michigan opened up the game on a big lead, and was able to sustain it for the entire game in a wire-to-wire victory. It was a good win for the Wolverines, but not one that I feel like I can learn all that much from.
Michigan comes into this game winners of 6 of 8, and if the Huskies are the team they face, they’ll be on a five-game winning streak. This should be a fantastic duel that could come down to which players have the hot hand.
Maybe I’m hunting for an upset, but I really have belief in this Huskies unit currently. They’ve been a hot-and-cold team all season, so the momentum could run out, but this team looks determined to remove any doubt from their place in the Field of 68.
If Washington slows down the pace and its starting unit has a big day, it could force a young Michigan team to struggle a bit under the pressure. I think this will be another fantastic matchup, but I am going to go with the team with more experience to pull it off.
Prediction: Washington
Illinois (7) vs. Nebraska (10)*
6:30 p.m., BTN
Regular Season Matchup: 2/16 at Illinois - 77-68 Illinois
Current NCAA Tournament Projection: ILL - 8 seed
Alexis Markowski had about as good of a game as she could have against an elite post defender like Kendall Bostic when these two teams faced, with 28 points and 8 rebounds. The Cornhuskers still lost by 9.
Markowski is a phenomenal player, and she may do it again, but I do think Bostic will be able to contain her more on a rematch, and that spells trouble to me for Nebraska.
The Illini’s current roster is almost built to be great in a postseason situation with how constrained the rotations have been. This has not been fully due to a coaching decision as much as it is due to injuries, but the seven-player rotation should be firing on all cylinders before it starts hitting back-to-backs here.
Nebraska has enough weapons from deep, plus Markowski’s stardom, to always have a chance. But I really like Illinois to at least win one game here with its core, especially if they can win the battle inside.
Prediction: Illinois
Michigan State (6) vs. Iowa (11)*
Regular Season Matchup: 12/15 at Michigan State - 68-66 MSU
Current NCAA Tournament Projection: MSU - 6 seed
The Spartans won a nail-biter at home over these Hawkeyes a few months back, which tells me that these two teams should be in for another battle.
After such an impressive start to the year, Michigan State has had a rocky end of the season, losing 5 of its final 9 games. The Big Ten Tournament can be a great reset before the Big Dance, but I fear they’ve picked the wrong opponent to get that reset.
Iowa has looked like a team that has hit a different gear since the last time these two faced. While not fully solved, the turnover issues have been significantly contained compared to when the Hawkeyes gave up 23 of them in the previous matchup. Of course, Michigan State is especially good at forcing those turnovers as well.
If the Spartans can get the Hawkeyes running in transition, I think they can sneak by with a close win into Friday. But I really do like Iowa in a rematch here based on the current form the team has been playing in.
Prediction: Iowa
Friday
USC (1) vs. Indiana (9)*
Noon, BTN
Regular Season Matchup: 1/19 at Indiana - 73-66 USC
Current NCAA Tournament Projection: USC - 1 seed
The Trojans struggled to score against the Hoosiers when these two teams met in Assembly Hall, and this game will be played within those same state boarders, so I don’t count out some true, genuine madness occurring here. I’m even more intrigued because Indiana was so close to an upset with their best scorer, Yarden Garzon, shooting 3 of 17 in the contest.
That said, I do believe that JuJu Watkins is going to come in fully locked in and on a war path to get to that championship game and potentially see UCLA a third time. It’s hard enough to score on USC with rest, let alone on a back-to-back, so I think the Trojans will be more than happy to make this one a “First to 60” type game.
Indiana just needs to hit some deep balls, and this one could be closer than many will expect. But I can’t go against USC with the way this team plays at its best, there are too many ways for the Trojans to come out of this on top.
Prediction: USC
Maryland (4) vs. Washington (12)*
~2:30 p.m., BTN
Regular Season Matchup: 2/9 at Washington - 81-73 Maryland
Current NCAA Tournament Projection: MD - 5 seed
If Washington is able to make this run, I will have significant doubts on its ability to extend it into the weekend.
Maryland has already proven it can beat the Huskies on the road, and did so on the back of a Kaylene Smikle masterclass (36 pts, 8 reb, 2 stl, 3 blk). I think on a neutral-site, the Terps have the players to dominate on the glass and contain Washington’s top threats.
But then there’s also the added factor of fatigue, especially for a team like Washington that relies heavily on its starters. There are too many factors in this hypothetical scenario to make me think the Huskies could make this a true Cinderella run, but even winning two games would be a massive deal for them.
Prediction: Maryland
UCLA (2) vs. Illinois (7)*
6:30 p.m., BTN
Regular Season Matchup: 2/20 at UCLA - 70-55 UCLA
Current NCAA Tournament Projection: UCLA - 1 seed
Similar to the scenario above, I think UCLA matches up very well against the Illini, has the depth to cause fatigue to be a major factor and has proven to be the better team in the matchup during the regular season.
Both of these teams are plenty experienced, and I always think cohesiveness can be a big deal in March which Illinois has more than just about any team in the country. But the Bruins are just so deep with players that can beat you, and I think there are various threats off the bench that can feast on tired legs in a tournament setting.
Prediction: UCLA
Ohio State (3) vs. Iowa (11)*
~9 p.m., BTN
Regular Season Matchup: 2/17 at Ohio State - 86-78 (OT) OSU
Current NCAA Tournament Projection: OSU - 5 seed
In my hypothetical tournament that is almost certainly not right, this is by far the matchup I’m most excited about for Friday.
Iowa scared the death out of Ohio State, a team that loves to be scared to death, taking the Buckeyes to overtime thanks to a late flurry, only for Ohio State to ultimately close the doors in the final frame. These two teams have history, as well as recent history, and it always feels like something special happens when they face off.
Ohio State will be the second team in two days to force immense pressure onto Iowa’s attack. If the Hawkeyes can deal with the Spartans, they may be specifically fatigued to do it again against the Buckeyes. On the other hand, it’s fair to say Ohio State hasn’t played at its best lately with a 4-4 stretch in its last eight games, including losses to Indiana and Maryland.
The X-factor for me, as is often the case with the Buckeyes, is Cotie McMahon. Jaloni Cambridge can be a similar spark for this team, but McMahon is such a difference maker when she’s at the top of her game, but that has not always been the case in the postseason.
If both of these teams played their first games against each other, I really do think Iowa could get all the way to Saturday. But the bracket format matters, and playing a third straight game, including a second straight against a press defense, is a very difficult ask, and it puts the Buckeyes ahead in my eyes.
Prediction: Ohio State
Saturday
USC (1)* vs. Maryland (4)*
3 p.m., BTN
Regular Season Matchup: 1/8 at Maryland - 79-74 USC
Yeah yeah, all chalk in the semifinals, sorry about it!
The first time these two met was a classic. It was an interior battle that came down to the wire, but USC’s main advantage was its ability to slow down Maryland’s offense, which hit only two threes and shot below 37 percent from the field. The Terps stayed close thanks to forcing 19 Trojan turnovers, and I could very much see these two teams battling down to the wire once again.
USC’s 47 rebounds in that game were the most Maryland has allowed all season, so if the Terps can even out that category and hit a few more threes, there is absolutely a route to taking down the Big Ten champs. Shyanne Sellers will have to truly lead this attack to do so, and avoid letting USC suffocate everything inside the pain like it can do with so many opponents.
Watkins had eight turnovers in this matchup and shot a subpar 7 of 19. She is always the difference-maker in any game she plays, and I expect a stronger, higher-volume showing here, which could be enough to turn the tide.
USC is the favorite to win this tournament and is my pick to win here, but I think the Terps are really going to make them earn it in this one.
Prediction: USC
UCLA (2)* vs. Ohio State (3)*
5:30 p.m., BTN
Regular Season Matchup: 2/5 at UCLA - 65-52 UCLA
We must remember that Ohio State and UCLA were tied at 44 with 9:26 to play in the fourth quarter before the Bruins went on a 19-1 run and ultimately won by a comfortable margin.
The Buckeyes proved they can muck up the UCLA attack plenty, and forced 23 Bruin turnovers thanks to 15 steals. The problem was that Ohio State could not score, at all, against UCLA. The Buckeyes shot 29.4 percent overall and were out rebounded 49-33.
Like the USC-Maryland matchup before it, I do think there’s a path to Ohio State winning this game. Cambridge and McMahon had solid showings against UCLA, it was the rest of the rotation that was completely stuffed. If Chance Gray or Taylor Thierry can take some of the pressure off of them, and Ohio State can be relentless on defense, the best version of the Buckeyes have the capability.
I just don’t know how Ohio State can contain Lauren Betts, truthfully. Ajae Petty and Elsa Lemmilä are solid bigs, but Betts should be able to take over on the glass and make it that much tougher for the Buckeyes to make an impact.
This conference has had so many teams prove themselves as dangerous, but only two have consistently stood head-and-shoulders above the rest. It is very hard to choose against those two teams meeting for a third time.
Prediction: UCLA
Sunday
4:30 p.m., CBS
USC (1) vs. UCLA (2)
Regular Season Matchups: 2/13 at USC - 71-60 USC | 3/1 at UCLA - 80-67 USC
I’m sure many are hoping for a Round 3 between the two California schools, and I believe we will get it.
I also believe that the same team is going to do it again.
The first matchup between UCLA and USC was back and forth with wild swings of momentum before JuJu Watkins decided that it was over. That one didn’t overly sway me that the Trojans have the Bruins’ number, but the March 1 matchup did. In UCLA’s home building, USC looked poised and ready for everything UCLA had, and Watkins was again marvelous.
Watkins and Rayah Marshall are just two unbelievable defenders for Betts to deal with, and it has caused her to look a bit out of sorts. With Kiki Iriafen involved as well, it really did feel like USC had more answers to any problems UCLA could cause.
For the Bruins to avoid the 3-0 sweep, Betts needs to play a more composed game, and her co-stars need to have much larger performances than they have thus far. I would love for someone like Angela Dugalić or Gabriela Jaquez — two players with size and versatility — to get more involved than they have in the previous contests.
But I’m buying in on USC still. Watkins is the best player in the conference and plays with supreme confidence against this team. Even if she has a slightly lesser game than the past two, Iriafen, as well as Kennedy Smith and Talia von Oelhoffen to a lesser extent, looked more poised to take on more responsibility in the rematch.
I think USC has a real case at the No. 1 overall seed of the NCAA Tournament if this is the result, while UCLA would have to wait and see if it can stay on the 1 line with a 29-0 record against every team not named the Trojans.
Prediction: USC
My Full Bracket
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