Assessing The Losses
A closer look at the five Big Ten teams with four-plus defeats
Just so we are all clear, no Hoopla next Monday, as even I am not insane enough to make a post on Christmas Day. I’m hoping to get you the rare non-Big Ten women’s basketball post or two within the next few weeks, but the next time I’ll see you for this type of content will be in 2024, with the mid-season Hoopla 40.
Thanks for a great year of Hoopla, it’s a joy doing this.
Last Week’s Hoopla:
I try to cover the entirety of the Big Ten on Hoopla, but I know I can be guilty of talking about the teams at the top too much. This week, with a relatively quiet set of non-conference games, I figured it would be a good time to briefly look at some of the teams that have struggled out of the gate.
There are five teams with at least four losses as of writing this, and figuring out what has, and hasn’t, worked in the early stages of the season for those teams will be the focus.
Illinois
Record: 5-4 (0-1 Big Ten) | NET Ranking: 59
It has been a disappointing start to Shauna Green’s second season with the Illini, with four losses in the first nine games after the red hot 14-2 start to last year’s campaign. That said, Illinois still is without a real bad loss, and there are plenty of reasons to believe a resurgence is possible.
This team’s Her Hoop Stats national rank (44th) is actually better than the 2022-23 team (57th), showing that the underlying numbers are still there for Green’s team. The losses (@ Marquette, Notre Dame (N), vs. Michigan, vs. Missouri) are mostly fine, though the Illini really could have used a win over the Tigers (91st in NET) at home on Sunday.
Illinois is still running an efficient offense, with its 0.94 points per play ranking 28th in the NCAA (0.91 PPP, 18th in NCAA in 22-23). The Illini are also maintaining excellent assist and turnover rates (1.13 AST/TO, 45th in NCAA).
On the downside, Illinois has dropped more than five percentage points (37.2 → 32.0%) from three. Genesis Bryant has remained elite at 38.5 percent on 5.5 attempts from deep per game, but Makira Cook (34.2 → 30.8 3PT%) has struggled from deep, and has also not quite found her touch inside (44.4 → 36.7 2PT%) in the six games she has played this season.
I expect Cook to find her rhythm soon, but this has led to Illinois having to find more answers offensively. Kendall Bostic has done her part, averaging 12.3 PPG on 70.3-percent shooting, but Illinois has come up just short against its stronger competition. The Illini have also not been helped by opponents hitting 77.7 percent of their free throws, 13th-highest in the country.
It’s easy to chalk some of this start up to bad luck, as the numbers indicate Green still has this program running in similar ways to what happened last year. With that in mind, don’t be surprised if Illinois comes back with some big wins in conference play.
Purdue
Record: 6-5 (0-1 Big Ten) | NET Ranking: 84
Similar to the Illini, Purdue has simply not been able to take down the tough competition that’s been in its way so far, outside of a solid victory over Texas A&M.
Three single-digit Power 5 defeats, none of which were home games, is brutal, but so are the losses to UCLA and Notre Dame by a combined 80 points. Katie Geralds has put a lot of life into this Purdue program, and this veteran group has found lightning in a bottle before, but it has not quite happened to this point.
There’s not a lot of standout numbers on either side of the ball for the Boilermakers, and maybe that’s the issue. Outside of a phenomenal return to form from Madison Layden, who is hitting 47.3 percent of her 5.0 threes per game, Purdue shoots 26.8 percent from deep. The offense has also decreased the assists and increased the turnovers from last year, which is a tough combination to have early on.
Layden has been the revelation to highlight early on, as she has found elite form and confidence after a few tough shooting seasons. Abbey Ellis (13.7 PPG) still leads Purdue in scoring, but is shooting a career-worst from deep (26.5%), which should rebound. And, for as much as Jeanae Terry does for this team elsewhere (7.1 RPG, 5.8 APG), her 26.2 field goal percentage has not helped the offense get going.
The road to get into the NCAA Tournament is difficult after losing five early games, but I want to see this team filled with experience show some of that in Big Ten play. On the other side, Mary Ashley Stevenson has proven to be a solid rebounder (5.5 RPG) and supplemental scorer (8.9 PPG) as a true freshman, and she could continue to grow with the amount of trust Geralds has put into her in the early stages.
Wisconsin
Record: 6-4 (0-1 Big Ten) | NET Ranking: 98
There is not much negative to be said in this one, this has been the best start for a Wisconsin team since it started 6-0 in 2018-19. For as much roster turnover as there was this offseason, Marisa Moseley has found some true success with this Badgers team through the first third of the regular season.
A top 100 NET ranking and 103rd overall Her Hoop Stats ranking is proof of that. Wisconsin is not quite ready to challenge some more dominant programs, but wins over South Dakota State and Boston College are not to be overlooked.
What has been the change? Defense. Opponents lit up Wisconsin last year, shooting 43.0 percent overall while averaging 0.86 points per play, 297th and 334th in the nation, respectively. This year, those numbers are 36.1 percent and 0.73 PPP, which rank 44th and 82nd. Night and day type differences.
The most exciting aspect may be who is leading this change for Wisconsin. The Badgers’ top four scorers are all underclassmen, with Serah Williams (16.1 PPG, 9.0 RPG, 2.9 BPG) showing off some of that star potential I had been hoping for.
Williams’ turn was a bit expected for me, though. The rise of Ronnie Porter and Sania Copeland was not.
*Look* at these number increases. These players have both jumped into significant roles after coming off the bench last season, and have both improved basically across the board. It’s been stunning, and exactly what this Wisconsin program needed. Add in freshman D’Yanis Jimenez (10.7 PPG), and the Badgers have found a really exciting young core to work around.
I would like to see Wisconsin utilize more depth, as it basically has a six-player rotation currently, and the Badgers are probably a year out from postseason aspirations, but that is a much better trajectory than I was anticipating to start the year. Credit to Moseley and this roster for finding a true spark to believe in moving forward.
Rutgers
Record: 6-8 (0-1 Big Ten) | NET Ranking: 161
I know what you’re thinking. Rutgers has played how many games already?
Here’s the number of games every Big Ten team has played through Dec. 17:
12, 11, 10, 9, 11, 11, 11, 10, 11, 10, 9, 11, 14, 10
The Scarlet Knights have actually played more games than every team in the country except for one. That one team is not in the Big Ten, and maybe it’s because I’ve gotten inspired by binging hbomberguy videos on YouTube, but I need to follow this rabbit hole for a moment. I’m so sorry, we will get back to Rutgers, but I need to talk about this.
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CHICAGO STATE HAS PLAYED HOW MANY GAMES?????????
As said above, Rutgers stands alone at second place in the entire nation with 14 games played. The Scarlet Knights only trail one team, the Chicago State Cougars. The Cougars have played SEVENTEEN games this year. Their record? 0-17.
I don’t bring this up to make fun of Chicago State, I simply had to understand why this was happening. That a team that is struggling as much as this one is was forced to play so many games in a short span of time.
It is, I think, because Chicago State left the Western Athletic Conference (WAC) two years ago, so now the program is forced to play out most of its schedule over the course of what would be a normal team’s non-conference slate. That leads to multiple stretches where Chicago State has had to play three games in four days. That has happened not once, not twice, but four times already this season for the Cougars.
Surely these are tournaments, right? No. Chicago State has played in just two neutral site games, and have been on the road for 10 of its 17 games. From Nov. 21-28, Chicago State played six games, just one of which was at home.
This is lunacy, and I guess the cost of being without a conference in the basketball sphere. Maybe most miraculously of all, Chicago State plays with the 41st-fastest pace in the country. This team plays back-to-backs more than any other team in the country, and continues to fly out there. It’s something to respect and root for.
There are just nine games left on Chicago State’s schedule, including a stretch of back-to-back-to-back games that starts today against Alabama A&M. I really want this team to win a game for all the trouble it has dealt with. It came oh so close, with a 103-102 triple overtime loss to Evansville that came the day after an 11-point loss to Austin Peay.
That tells me this team has fight, and I beg it leads to a victory.
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…so anyway, Rutgers.
We have a strong sample size of what this Scarlet Knights team looks like, and we will not see them again until Big Ten play. It’s safe to say Rutgers has met expectations, at least according to the numbers: Rutgers has won (> 50% win expectancy) and lost (< 50% win expectancy) every game as projected on Her Hoop Stats. That means there have been no signature wins, but no shocking defeats.
The fight shown against Texas Tech and Indiana are promising signs this team could pick up some Big Ten wins, but there are still areas of concern. Teams are able to move the ball around with ease, and the Scarlet Knights are struggling to do so, averaging 18.4 turnovers per game (279th).
They are holding opponents to a solid 38.0 percent shooting overall, and are relying heavily on Kaylene Smikle (17.1 PPG) and Destiny Adams (12.3 PPG) to run the offense, which isn’t a bad idea. Smikle has proven capable of being the No. 1, and Adams has provided a lot as a veteran transfer. Both are also excellent at forcing turnovers with 1.9 SPG apiece.
This team’s strength is in the interior, and Rutgers has mostly dominated the glass with a 53.2 percent rebound rate (69th in the NCAA). There’s not enough here to expect much more than what happened in 2022-23, but it hasn’t been a terrible start to Coquese Washington’s second year either.
Northwestern
Record: 4-7 (0-1 Big Ten) | NET Ranking: 254
Northwestern did break a six-game losing streak yesterday with a victory over Bradley, and I hope that is a sign of some positive things to come. But it has been a tough road for these Wildcats, who are really looking for a spark.
Joe McKeown built this program to its heights thanks to a swarming defense that could slow down high-powered attacks and force turnovers. This year, the Wildcats are allowing opponents to score 0.92 points per possession and are forcing 13.3 turnovers per game. Those both rank in the bottom 40 in the nation.
In 2021-22, Northwestern had a 12.0 percent steal rate, 26th best in the country. Just two years later, Northwestern is sitting at a 6.7 percent steal rate. That is the 34th worst in the country.
The defense is not clicking, and the offense can’t quite pick up the slack. The efficiency at the free throw line (79.4%, 13th in NCAA) and behind the arc (35.6 3PT%, 49th in NCAA) are both promising, but they are paired with the fact that Northwestern doesn’t get to the free throw line (11.9% FT rate, 19th-worst in NCAA) and often refuse to shoot behind the arc (24.8% 3PT rate, 278th in NCAA).
It’s frustrating, because you can see some glimpses of where this team could shine. Melannie Daley has made a great jump after her sophomore year was cut short. Her 12.3 PPG on 50.8-percent shooting both lead the team. Hailey Weaver and Caileigh Walsh are both above 11 PPG with solid rebounding efforts. Caroline Lau is finding more of her shot (36.1 3PT%, 92.9 FT%) and is averaging 6.5 APG as the team’s primary facilitator.
I see pieces, and I have hope Northwestern can find the energy it had not that long ago. But this team need a signature win, or a star to fully shine through to get the momentum really going in the right direction.
What to Watch
I thought my COVID diagnosis (I’m sick, but generally fine, if you were wondering) would make me want to write a short Hoopla. Instead it’s one of my all-time longest. Oops.
Anyway, let’s talk games before there’s a week break from Dec. 22-30.
Ohio State vs. UCLA, 12/18 (Monday), 6:30 p.m., FS1
GAME OF THE NON-CONFERENCE SLATE. Ohio State gets undefeated UCLA at home in what should be a tremendous showdown between two elite teams. No idea how the Buckeyes plan to deal with 6-7 Lauren Betts, but I’m excited to find out.
Illinois vs. Arkansas, 12/20 (Wednesday), 11 a.m., FloHoops
A great chance to pick up a good win at a neutral site. The Razorbacks are a solid team led by star freshman Taliah Scott (23.2 PPG). This should be a fun one to have with a coffee.
Michigan vs. Florida, 12/20 (Wednesday), 6:30 p.m., ESPN2
Michigan’s up-and-down start to the year comes to a head in Charlotte against the Gators, who have been similar. Florida has been a high-scoring team on the interior, which should make a good matchup for the Wolverines.
Nebraska at Kansas, 12/20 (Wednesday), 7:30 p.m., ESPN+
This should be *good*. Kansas is 6-4, yes, but has single-digit losses to UConn, Virginia Tech and Penn State, and is undefeated at home. Make no mistake, this is a huge game for the Cornhuskers, who can really prove something on the road here.
Northwestern at Temple, 12/21 (Thursday), 11 a.m., ESPN+
Northwestern will be the underdog here, especially on the road, but I’m hoping this previous win can be snowballed into pulling an upset. Temple is a solid AAC team, but a team that the Wildcats should be able to battle with.
Feature Photo Credit: Wisconsin Women’s Basketball, Twitter/X
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