The Big Ten Bubble Teams
Because I can only say so much about Michigan and Caitlin Clark
Okay, let me quickly get the Michigan and Caitlin Clark talk out of the way, because even though I talk about them almost every week, they are the two things that the Big Ten should be promoting every week anyway.
Let’s start with Clark, who put up 46 points and 10 assists in a 98-90 loss to the Wolverines. Clark is getting the national recognition she has deserved all along thanks to shots like this:
Or this:
I wrote a lot about Clark’s three-point slump to start the year. After shooting 42.9 percent from deep in the season opener, she had 14 straight games under 40 percent. Clark has hit 40 percent or more of her threes in 5 of the past 7 games, and I’ll let you be the judge of how difficult many of those shots have been based on the two videos above.
She is the most entertaining player in college basketball, men’s or women’s, and there is no one like her.
Now, quickly, Michigan. Michigan beat Clark and the Hawkeyes for their eighth straight win. Some quick numbers about this eight-game winning streak:
Average margin of victory: 20.0 points
Double-digit wins: 7
Matchups against ranked opponents: 4
So, to sum it up, Michigan is killing everyone in its path and is doing it against some of the best competition in the country. The Wolverines were rewarded with a No. 4 ranking in the AP Poll, the highest in program history. I think they should be even higher with how they are playing.
The Bubble Teams
Unless one of these teams pretty much loses out, the top six Big Ten teams should be locks for the NCAA Tournament: Michigan, Indiana, Maryland, Iowa, Nebraska and Ohio State.
Currently, according to NET rankings and the Bracketology projections by ESPN’s Charlie Creme, those six are the only Big Ten teams expected to make it, which would be a little bit of a letdown for a conference seemingly so full of talent.
There are three other teams, outside of a miracle Big Ten Tournament run, that could make a leap into the Field of 68 with strong ends to the year. Here are those teams, with some current rankings and their remaining schedules (not including potential rescheduled games).
Michigan State
Record: 12-10 (6-5 Big Ten) | NET Ranking: 64 | Her Hoops Stats Ranking: 58
The Spartans find themselves as the next highest rated team according to both the NET and Her Hoops Stats, and was riding high with a four-game winning streak before stumbling against Maryland by 5 (very respectable) and Minnesota by 11 (absolutely not respectable).
That loss to the Gophers is a potential dagger, especially when you look at this remaining schedule.
2/10 vs. Michigan
2/12 @ Indiana
2/16 @ Wisconsin
2/21 vs. Penn State
2/24 @ Michigan
2/27 @ Ohio State
On the bright side, there is ample opportunity for Michigan State to pick up huge resume-boosting victories. The downside is, well, there are six games here and four are against ranked opponents, three of which are on the road.
I don’t see Michigan State finishing better than 3-3 down this stretch, but if that can turn into 4-2 with an upset over Michigan or Indiana, Sparty could be a few conference tournament wins away from contention.
Northwestern
Record: 13-8 (5-5) | NET: 69 | HHS: 68
It was looking so good for Northwestern eight games ago. The Wildcats were fresh off a big win over Iowa, they were sitting at 10-3, easily slotting into a tournament spot, likely as a favored seed in the Round of 64.
The next six games did not go to plan. A 1-5 record that included a blowout loss to Michigan State and a defeat to Penn State had pushed Northwestern to the outside looking in for the back stretch of the year.
But, while the Cats are still not expected to make the tourney, two straight victories has brought them back into contention. The remaining slate of the season is also a big of a mixed bag.
2/11 @ Minnesota
2/13 vs. Michigan
2/17 @ Indiana
2/21 @ Illinois
2/24 vs. Purdue
2/27 @ Nebraska
There’s only one easy win here with Illinois, while games against Minnesota are absolute necessities if Northwestern wants a chance. Past that, like MSU, the Wildcats likely need a fourth win here against either Michigan, Indiana or on the road against Nebraska, a very good home team, to get into contention.
The Wildcats still overly rely on Veronica Burton to carry this team anywhere, but she will need help if her team wants to sneak into the field.
Purdue
Record: 13-10 (4-8) | NET: 68 | HHS: 81
Purdue had the least outside expectations of these three teams to start the year. Then, the Boilermakers under Katie Geralds had a very impressive 9-2 non-conference slate.
On the surface, it seems like it might have been a flash in the pan, but nothing more. I mean, look at that Big Ten record, and the Her Hoops Stats rating is not very nice either. Is Purdue even worthy of bubble consideration?
Folks, I’m here to say that Purdue is not only worthy: It is the most likely Big Ten team outside of the top six to make it at all.
Before I show you the remaining schedule, let’s talk about these first 12 conference games. Of the 12 games, SEVEN of them were against the top six, four of which were on the road. Purdue went 0-7 in these games.
Sure, this might mean the Boilermakers are not to the caliber of those six, I get that. But they have stayed in nearly every one of those games, with the largest loss being by 17 to Ohio State all the way back in early December.
For the math heads out there, that does mean that Purdue is 4-1 against the seven other teams in the conference, with a loss to Northwestern being the other blemish. The Boilermakers have not gotten a big upset win to bolster the resume, but they also win the games they are supposed to.
That makes their final schedule even more notable.
2/9 vs. Penn State
2/13 @ Wisconsin
2/17 vs. Illinois
2/20 @ Rutgers
2/24 @ Northwestern
2/27 vs. Wisconsin
There is not a single game against the top six left. Five of the games are against the four worst teams in the conference, and they all should be wins with how Purdue has played this year.
Because the Boilermakers have ground to make up, that Feb. 24 game in Evanston against Northwestern is as crucial for their chances as it is the Wildcats’, but this is a slate where 6-0 is more than possible.
If Purdue does go six for six, that is a 19-10 team with a 10-8 Big Ten record. If that’s where the Boilermakers end up, I’m not even sure a Big Ten Tournament victory will be needed.
What To Watch
I actually liked the one sentence sell for the games that I did last week, so let’s keep that moving forward. No, I swear I’m not just lazy, why are you looking at me like that?
Penn State @ Purdue, 2/9, 7 p.m. — B1G+
Purdue needs to win for all reasons stated above and Penn State has been playing better recently because Makenna Marisa (22.4 PPG) is a bucket and a problem.
Minnesota @ No. 25 Iowa, 2/9, 7:30 p.m. — B1G+
Caitlin Clark is currently a must-see in any form right now, and Minnesota is a team that is not all that likely to contain her well.
Michigan State @ No. 4 Michigan, 2/10, 6:30 p.m. — BTN
In-state rivalry with one blazing inferno hot team and another trying to get a gigantic resume boost.
Nebraska @ No. 21 Ohio State, 2/10, 7 p.m. — FS1
This one seems obvious, but in case I need to say, these are two of the best offenses in the country battling it out.
No. 4 Michigan @ Northwestern, 2/13, 1 p.m. — B1G+
Northwestern needs wins like MSU does, but the Wolverines are playing such excellent basketball right now that they are worth watching any time they are on.
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