Big Ten Bubble Watch
A NCAA Tournament outlook, and a preview of the first UCLA-USC matchup
I may be a day late, but it’s still that time.
The NCAA Tournament inches closer and closer, and this year will almost certainly feature a historic number of Big Ten teams one way or another. Expansion has plenty to do with that, but so do the many, many good programs in this conference that are making a case to get into the field.
What are those cases exactly? Well let’s find out.
Last Week’s Hoopla:
The Fighting, Scrapping, Clawing Illini
Yes, there is truly so much going on within the Big Ten, but a quick talk about the pure chaos that has been WNBA free agency.
I will be putting the Big Ten’s tournament hopefuls into four categories: Hosting, Fighting to Host, Solid In and On The Bubble. The women’s bracket gives home games to its top 16 teams for the opening two rounds, which is what the “Hosting” is alluding to in the first tiers.
I will also be referencing six stats and metrics for every team:
Bart Torvik’s Wins Above Bubble (WAB) Metric (as of 2/11)
(more or less how many more/less wins a team has than an average bubble team would have against the same schedule)
Note that two of the Bracketologies do not take into account the past three days. ESPN’s is the most up-to-date, but I will not tell you which of these brackets to trust with your life.
Also, since this is a Bubble Watch above all, we will be moving quickly through the first sets of teams who are locks or near-locks at this point.
Hosting
UCLA: 23-0 | NET: 5th | WAB: +9.6, 3rd | ESPN: 1 | Athletic: 1 | CBS: 1
USC: 21-2 | NET: 6th | WAB: +7.9, 5th | ESPN: 2 | Athletic: 2 | CBS: 2
Ohio State: 20-3 | NET: 15th | WAB: +5.4, 14th | ESPN: 3 | Athletic: 3 | CBS: 3
These teams are locks for the tournament, two of them are basically locks for hosting games and those two teams are playing each other for the first time on Thursday, which we will get to!
Ohio State went out to California and got two lopsided defeats against the Bruins and Trojans, though the UCLA loss was close for much of the game. A win against either likely solidifies their spot here, but the Buckeyes are still relatively safe in the Top 16 barring a surprise defeat.
Fighting To Host
Maryland: 19-5 | NET: 23rd | WAB: +5.8, 10th | ESPN: 5 | Athletic: 5 | CBS: 4
Michigan State: 18-5 | NET: 20th | WAB: +3.8, 21st | ESPN: 5 | Athletic: 4 | CBS: 5
The Terrapins and Spartans have both had their moments in the tier above, but currently sit right on the edge of hosting games. They will both be playing in the NCAA Tournament, but the seeding feels extremely up for grabs.
Maryland’s résumé is terrific if you don’t have someone nasty in your ear talking about margin of victory. The Terrapins only have losses to Illinois (by 1), Ohio State, Texas, UCLA and USC. They have wins over six teams in the Top 50 of the NET. I think a 4-1 stretch to end the season would get the Terps over the hump, while anything less would require a Big Ten Tournament run.
Michigan State’s two home losses to Oregon and Michigan have pushed the Spartans firmly into the tier for now in my eyes. This is a team I would sure not want to play in the tournament, but Sparty also has three matchups coming up against UCLA, USC and Ohio State, all on the road. Even one win there could give them a Top 16 case.
Solid In
Illinois: 19-5 | NET: 32nd | WAB: +3.6, 25th | ESPN: 8 | Athletic: 7 | CBS: 8
Michigan: 17-7 | NET: 27th | WAB: +3.4, 27th | ESPN: 7 | Athletic: 8 | CBS: 9
Iowa: 17-7 | NET: 29th | WAB: +4.1, 19th | ESPN: 9 | Athletic: 10 (Last Four Byes) | CBS: 8
While I fear calling any of these three teams locks yet, I would be very surprised if any of them ultimately missed the NCAA Tournament. These are three teams that have all exceeded my expectations in a variety of ways, and I’m excited to see the noise they can make in the postseason.
Illinois has won six straight games as part of its weak point of the schedule, and while five of those games were against the four worst teams in the Big Ten, four were on the road and one was against the aforementioned Terrapins. I have a hard time believing a Big Ten team with 20+ overall wins and 10+ conference wins is anything but a lock, which the Illini are one victory away from reaching.
The Wolverines and Hawkeyes have more work to do to get to those thresholds, but both are earning key wins at exactly the right time. Michigan just took down Michigan State on the road for a signature redemption win, which came after a pair of victories over bubble teams. Three wins to end the season should just about do it in my eyes.
Iowa lost five straight in January and appeared to be trending in the exact wrong direction. Then, boom: five straight wins including one over USC and three on the road against bubble teams. With one of the best wins in the country and other victories piling up around it, including last night against Nebraska, it’s going to be real hard to deny the Hawkeyes in March.
The Bubble
Minnesota: 19-6 | NET: 31st | WAB: +1.7, 37th | ESPN: 10 (L4B) | Athletic: 11 (Last Four In) | CBS: 11 (L4I)
The Gophers remain at the top of the bubble for me, and the Illinois argument is the primary reason why. Minnesota’s easy non-conference schedule helped them to 19 wins, but the Gophers are also 7-6 in the Big Ten. The Indiana win this past weekend was *huge* in the Gophers not inching more toward the out line in my eyes.
Three wins would leave close to no doubt for me heading into the Big Ten Tournament, there’s just no way 22-8 Minnesota with a 10-8 Big Ten record misses out. The Gophers have relied on defense and efficiency to survive without Mara Braun, but her return could make Minnesota an extremely difficult out to deal with in both upcoming tourneys.
Remaining schedule: at Ohio State, Oregon, at Purdue, Washington, at Michigan State
Oregon: 16-8 | NET: 36th | WAB: +2.8, 32nd | ESPN: 10 (L4B) | Athletic: 8 | CBS: 9
The Ducks have left last year’s disaster firmly in the rearview mirror, and currently look in good shape to get back into the NCAA Tournament. That said, Oregon looked in much better shape at 16-5 before three straight losses, two of which were at home and all of which were by double digits.
Oregon has wins over Baylor, Indiana, Iowa and Michigan State, and the Ducks are without a loss that’s overly damaging which helps. Their remaining schedule is winnable (good!), but not a lock to win, and if the losing streak extends too far, it could cause other bubble teams, namely other ones in this conference, to hurdle over them.
Right now, that Wins Above Bubble number is a key for Oregon, this team has won some great games against tough competition which should matter in a big way come March.
Remaining schedule: vs. Washington, at Minnesota, at Nebraska, vs. Rutgers, at Washington
Indiana: 15-8 | NET: 39th | WAB: +2.0, 36th | ESPN: 10 (L4B) | Athletic: 9 | CBS: 8
Over the last 20 games, I would say the Hoosiers have been an NCAA Tournament team that perhaps could be just over the bubble threshold. So how much will those two early losses matter?
The Harvard one, in my eyes, can be nearly totally exonerated, no wrongdoing. Harvard is 17-3, it was in overtime and it was November. That 10-point Butler loss right after is a harder pill to swallow with the Bulldogs sitting at 13-13 right now. It was on the road, but it is going to be a stain on the résumé. It makes wins picked up against Stanford, Baylor, Iowa and Nebraska feel even larger, and if the Hoosiers can finish the year strong, I don’t think they will have to sweat an outrageous amount on Selection Sunday.
But Indiana still has seven games to go, and even a mediocre finish to the season, however, could cause the sweat to be warranted.
Remaining schedule: at Michigan, vs. Purdue, vs. Ohio State, at Michigan State, vs. Maryland, at Purdue
Nebraska: 16-8 | NET: 40th | WAB: +1.7, 38th | ESPN: 11 (L4I) | Athletic: 10 (L4B) | CBS: 9
The Cornhuskers have lost 4 of 5, including three straight by 15+ points to respective bubble teams. It’s a stretch that drops them from relatively safe to maybe as on the bubble as a team could be right now.
Nebraska’s benefit is that it does not have a loss to a bad team. But the Cornhuskers also only have a few signature wins (Minnesota, Michigan State, at Iowa), while six of their losses are by double digits. They have generally been able to beat who they are supposed to, but have faltered to the majority of opponents at or above their level.
An absolutely pivotal stretch of games is coming to finish the regular season for Nebraska, and I generally believe in the 20- and 10-win principle rule I laid out earlier. Get to those marks (Nebraska is 7-6 in the Big Ten), and you will make it very hard for the committee to deny you. The schedule laid out to end the season gives them an opportunity to do it, though not an easy one.
Remaining schedule: at Maryland, at Illinois, vs. Oregon, vs. Washington, at Northwestern
Washington: 14-10 | NET: 53rd | WAB: -1.1, 63rd | ESPN: First Four Out | Athletic: F40 | CBS: Not Mentioned
A 2-6 stretch in conference play has dropped the Huskies from exciting unexpected tourney team to a group on the outside looking in, but the bell has not rung on Washington’s season quite yet.
Two upcoming games against Oregon, a home bout with USC and road matchups against Nebraska and Minnesota are all the exact type of games Washington needs to prove itself. If the Huskies can sweep Oregon, and win one of those road matchups, then steal a game or two in the Big Ten Tournament, I think they’ll be firmly in the conversation.
I also wonder how the committee is going to deal with conference expansion. Projection brackets have had no issue including 13 Big Ten teams, but that is *a lot* of teams from one conference, which could give Nebraska and Washington some extra concern.
It’s hard not to think of what could have been. Washington was mere seconds from taking down then-undefeated LSU on Nov. 25, but just missed out in a one-point loss. A win there could have significantly changed the trajectory of the résumé, but the Huskies will have to find it in the aggregate elsewhere.
Remaining schedule: at Oregon, vs. USC, vs. Rutgers, at Nebraska, at Minnesota, vs. Oregon
Game Of The Year Of The Century, Pt. I
UCLA at USC, Thursday, Feb. 13, 10 p.m. EST, Peacock
Bart Torvik Prediction: 68-67 USC
The Bruins and Trojans will meet twice before the regular season is over, but USC’s best chance to take down the last undefeated team in the nation could be with this game at home.
Both of these teams have been juggernauts for much of the season, but UCLA has managed to fight through all competitors, while the Trojans have shown the occasional weakness and lapse with defeats to Notre Dame and Iowa.
UCLA’s strength is having no glaring weakness, which sounds like a joke but is exactly how I feel. I think there are teams that exceed more in specific areas, but the Bruins are so rock solid on both sides of the ball, and from top-to-bottom as a roster, that it’s hard to take advantage of any specific mismatch or component.
Lauren Betts is the superstar at the center of it all, and is a two-way terror to deal with on the interior. Kiki Rice has had a phenomenal season leading the backcourt. Gabriela Jaquez and Angela Dugalič are fantastic versatile role players who chip in a little bit everywhere. Elina Aarnisalo has offered excellent secondary playmaking while Londynn Jones and Timea Gardiner can hit the deep ball. It’s such a well-made rotation that’s top five in field goal percentage, opponent field goal percentage, rebounding rate and assist rate.
Their opponent? Also one of the best defenses in the country, with maybe the very best top-end star power anywhere. JuJu Watkins and Kiki Iriafen are terrifying enough of a duo on their own to lead to potential chaos in the UCLA ecosystem. The Trojans have held opponents under 60 points a dozen times this season, and have yet to allow more than 76 to anyone. Rayah Marshall is giving Betts a real run for her money in Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year as a true game-wrecker in the paint. Freshmen Kennedy Smith and Avery Howell have breathed some life in USC’s lackluster three-point shooting while also adding a combined 3.7 steals per contest.
USC’s road to victory is through suffocating the interior and containing UCLA’s dominance on the glass. The Trojans lead the nation in blocks and are 11th in rebounding rate, so evening out that area that’s a constant win for the Bruins could matter. It will, ultimately, depend on Watkins and Iriafen taking over, which could be helped out majorly by a three-point boost that’s been brewing a little bit in recent games.
For UCLA, the road feels more clear. If the Bruins can contain Watkins and continue to play as well inside as it has all season, USC doesn’t have the alternative answers in the same way. Even if Betts is held below her scoring average, it feels like UCLA has a larger quantity of immediate secondary answers. That said, USC has perhaps the best secondary answer, Iriafen, who could be a huge X-factor if the attention remains on JuJu and Betts.
All of this is to say, my goodness we are in for a treat. This would mean a whole lot for USC’s No. 1 seed case, while I’m sure the Bruins would really love to keep that zero in the loss column.
Photo Credit: Indiana Women’s Basketball (@IndianaWBB), Twitter
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