Ranking The Big Ten Among Power Conferences: 2022-23
Where did the Big Ten land among the best women's basketball conferences in the country?
Folks, next week is finally Team Preview time, which means we are truly ready to get back into the Big Ten women’s basketball mindset that this conference deserves.
As an appetizer before the 14-course meal, I wanted to check in on how the Big Ten compared to the other major conferences last season. I did this last June as well, with a chart to summarize the main comparison points. The numbers gave the Big Ten a case to be ranked anywhere from third to fifth among what I consider to be the six major conferences.
I am nixing the chart this year, but will go through each of the same categories in a little more detail to try and truly place the Big Ten this time around.
March Madness Success
This is split up into a few areas: Number of teams that made it, number of wins in the tournament and win percentage among the teams involved.
March Madness Teams
1.) ACC - 8
T-2.) Big Ten - 7
T-2.) Pac-12 - 7
T-2.) SEC - 7
5.) Big 12 - 6
6.) Big East - 5
For the second straight season, the Big Ten found itself in a three-way tie in the middle of the pack here, but this time with seven teams instead of six. Two of those teams were in the First Four, sure, but four teams also hosted games as top-four seeds, so it balanced itself out.
The ACC earned eight bids once again to stay at the top of this list, while the Big East gained a bid to inch closer to the other power conferences.
March Madness Wins (and Win Percentage)
1.) SEC - 17 (73.9%)
2.) ACC - 14 (63.6%)
3.) Big Ten - 13 (65.0%)
4.) Pac-12 - 8 (53.3%)
5.) Big East - 5 (50.0%)
6.) Big 12 - 3 (33.3%)
While the SEC dominated this tournament to cement itself as the top conference in women’s basketball, the Big Ten did extremely well for itself. Even after starting 0-2 in the First Four, the conference won 13 of its 18 games the rest of the way.
Each of the five other teams advanced at least one round, and three made not just the Sweet 16, but the Elite Eight. This was all basically without Indiana, the Big Ten’s No. 1 seed who fell to Miami (Fla.) in the Round of 32.
That run by the Hurricanes kept the ACC just above the Big Ten in total wins, but just behind in win percentage, but it was clear that these three conferences made it count late in the season.
The Big 12 had a tough one. Baylor, Oklahoma and Texas all managed to win in the opening round, but not a single team from the conference advanced to the Sweet 16.
Final Coaches Poll
With a lack of an AP Poll to end the season, we will instead use the end-of-season Coaches Poll to gauge which conference had the most Top 25 teams.
1.) ACC - 6
2.) Big Ten - 5
T-3.) Pac-12 - 4
T-3.) SEC - 4
5.) Big 12 - 3
6.) Big East - 2
Even with the SEC’s unbelievable tournament performance, the result was just four teams in the final top 25, with the ACC and Big Ten edging the conference out.
And while this proves the depth of the ACC’s conference, the actual rankings here proved just how strong the Big Ten was at the top this season. Of the five teams ranked, four were in the top seven: Iowa (No. 2), Maryland (No. 5), Ohio State (No. 6) and Indiana (No. 7). Michigan ranked 23rd to get the conference to five.
That is the story of the Big Ten last season: a conference with a handful of supremely elite teams at the top, some other very solid teams in the middle, and then a bit of a gap. That gap will now begin to show itself.
Her Hoop Stats Ratings
If each conference was strictly ranked on the top-end teams, the Big Ten has a case for being as high as second, with a true battle against the ACC. But the conference’s depth from top to bottom, despite my excitement for plenty of the teams, is not quite up to par with some of its foes.
To show the strength of the full power conferences, we will turn to Her Hoop Stats for their team ratings, as well as the offensive/defensive ratings.
Average Team Ratings
1.) SEC - 20.96
2.) Pac-12 - 20.26
3.) ACC - 17.66
4.) Big 12 - 17.45
5.) Big Ten - 16.96
6.) Big East - 12.37
I anticipated the Big Ten slipping here, but I did not anticipate the conference falling to fifth behind the Big 12, but there is a clear explanation as to why this happened.
Despite 12 being larger than Ten, the Big 12 has 10 teams and the Big Ten has 14, and nine of those 10 Big 12 teams rate very favorably in the HHS system. Was that the most confusing, numbers-heavy sentence ever written? I hope so.
The Big Ten has five teams at the bottom of its conference with a rating of 6.8 or lower. No other conference, including the Big East, had as many teams that low. There were also only seven teams in power conferences with a negative HHS rating: Four in the Big East, one in the Big 12 (TCU, -2.3) and two in the Big Ten: Northwestern (-2.2) and Rutgers (-5.7).
The Scarlet Knights rating makes a significant impact. Despite Coquese Washington finding some late wins with this eight-player roster, the analytics were not buying it, and it put Rutgers as the 235th best team in all of Division I. Without the Rutgers score, the Big Ten is solidly in third with an average team rating of 18.70.
But Rutgers is in fact a part of the conference, so its rating must stay in.
Average Offense Ratings
1.) Big Ten - 105.21
2.) Pac-12 - 104.75
3.) SEC - 104.11
4.) Big 12 - 103.16
5.) ACC - 101.63
6.) Big East - 101.23
Despite being second-to-last in team rating, the Big Ten continues to prove itself as an offensive powerhouse of a conference.
The Big Ten had five of the top 13 teams nationally in points per game, led by Iowa at the top of the NCAA with 87.3 PPG. Nine of its teams also had a higher offensive rating than the averages from the Big 12, ACC and Big East, showing just how deep the scoring went for the conference even with some lesser performances at the bottom.
Thanks to the Hawkeyes and Terrapins, the Big Ten is known for its high-octane offenses more than anything. Indiana’s exceptional efficiency on that end has also proven that it isn’t just about the fast pace, either. It’s why this conference is such a treat to watch: these teams are all outrageously fun on that side of the floor.
Average Defense Ratings
1.) SEC - 83.14
2.) ACC - 83.96
3.) Pac-12 - 84.50
4.) Big 12 - 85.71
5.) Big Ten - 88.24
6.) Big East - 88.85
You likely saw this coming.
The Big Ten narrowly avoided finishing last among the top six conferences in average team defense ratings, as with the strong offenses comes not-so-strong defenses.
Six Big Ten teams had a defensive rating of 90 or higher. While the Big East has seven such teams, no other major conference had more than two. Wisconsin also earns the pleasure of having the worst defensive rating (96.8) of any team in a major conference.
Iowa made it clear this past season that a team with its play style can absolutely win a national championship, so this is not a huge “oh no” moment to see by any means. It does, however, explain why other conferences are liked more by analytics than our beloved Big Ten.
Conclusion
Where does the Big Ten rank among major conferences in women’s basketball? Let’s do one more stat to see if it gives a good answer.
Average Placement on Lists Above*
T-1.) ACC - 1.75
T-1.) SEC - 1.75
3.) Pac-12 - 2.75
4.) Big Ten - 3.00
5.) Big 12 - 5.00
6.) Big East - 5.75
The asterisk is because this includes four of the rankings: March Madness Teams, March Madness Wins, Final Top 25 Teams and HHS Overall Rating since the offense/defense ratings go into the overall one.
If you consider all four of these metrics to be evenly important, the Big Ten is the fourth-best conference, clearly ahead of the Big 12 and in a true battle with the Pac-12. If you think top-end success is the most important, the Big Ten would likely jump the Pac-12 after winning five more tournament games with the same amount of teams. If top-to-bottom success of teams is your game, the Big 12 might have an argument to push the Big Ten to fifth.
What do I think? I think the Big Ten is not a top two conference just yet, but is also absolutely not outside of the top four. The SEC still reigns supreme and the ACC continues to prove how deep it is year after year, and that’s enough to stay in second comfortably.
The Big Ten vs. Pac-12 debate is fascinating, as one conference (Pac-12) was much better according to the numbers, while one (Big Ten) clearly had the better top-end teams as made clear by the final Top 25 and tournament success.
I think three Elite Eight teams to zero would be the thing to tip the scales in my head, and I would put the Big Ten just ahead of the Pac-12 as the final podium finisher. Of course, the Big Ten is about to poach two Pac-12 teams that just made the tournament, so this debate may not go on much longer.
Team. Previews. Next Week. I am so so so excited, we are so back folks.
Feature Photo Credit: Courtesy of Penn State Athletics
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