Big Ten In The Big Dance: Part One
Paths and predictions for the Big Ten teams not hosting in the first two rounds
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Last Week’s Hoopla:
Third Time's A Charm
I won’t touch on the regular season awards too much, but JuJu Watkins was named Player of the Year within the conference to nobody’s surprise. Her coach, Lindsay Gottlieb, won Coach of the Year, while UCLA’s Lauren Betts earned Defensive Player of the Year. The toughest battle to choose, Freshman of the Year, ultimately went to co-winners Jaloni Cambrid…
Selection Sunday has passed, and more or less, the Big Ten got what it was hoping for.
A tournament-high 12 teams from the conference made it into the Field of 68, with UCLA earning the No. 1 overall seed. USC also took a 1 seed, while Maryland and Ohio State stayed within the Top 16 to host in the first two rounds. All of that is great, but I’ll wait until tomorrow to talk about them.
Instead, let’s start with the other eight teams to make it: Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Nebraska, Oregon and Washington. These eight teams will all have great opportunities to win their opening games, but how far can they each go?
Let’s go through them, in order of seeding (worst to best):
Washington
11 seed, First Four
Region 2
Matchup: 11 Columbia, winner plays 6 West Virginia
The Huskies got hot at just the right time to end the season and made it into the field with a First Four matchup on deck.
Washington’s strength this season has been its three-point shooting and overall efficiency, which the Huskies accomplish through a slowed-down pace and by playing through its core four of Elle Ladine, Sayvia Sellers, Hannah Stines and Dalayah Daniels. Ladine (17.1 PPG, 39.3 3PT%) has been the most significant X-factor down the stretch, scoring 15+ points in nine of her final 10 games.
They will face one of three Ivy teams (!!!!) to make the field on Thursday night. Columbia plays a similar slow style to the Huskies, but are led more by a trio of stars at the top in Riley Weiss, Kitty Henderson and Cecelia Collins. Weiss leads the team with 17.8 PPG, while Henderson and Collins both add 13+ PPG along with 4.5 assists per game apiece.
The Lions may have the advantage on the glass, where they have been excellent most of the season. Columbia is specifically impressive at creating second chances, with a 43.3% offensive rebound rate that ranks third in the nation.
This should be a fascinating matchup against teams that feel more similar to each other than one would think. I am going to lean the Huskies escaping the First Four though, as they are playing their best basketball as of late and should have the three-point shooting to survive, even if they lose the rebounding battle.
I think Washington has the build of a team that could also make an upset happen. Unfortunately, I don’t see it in this matchup. West Virginia is under seeded, in my opinion. This team is a terror of a unit that forces nearly 24 turnovers per game with plenty of impressive wins on the résumé.
If Washington gets hot from deep, they will always have a chance, but I really like this Mountaineers team as one that could make a significant run in this tournament.
Prediction: Round of 64
Oregon
10 Seed
Region 2
Matchup: 7 Vanderbilt, winner plays 2 Duke or 15 Lehigh
The Ducks are back in the NCAA Tournament, a major accomplishment after how poorly they finished last season.
Oregon is one of the most unique teams in this tournament with just how much they spread the scoring around: Six players score between 6.5 and 11.6 PPG, including leading scorer Deja Kelly. The Ducks know how to win a close game — they have done so many, many times this season — and are a generally very solid defensive unit.
Vanderbilt will be an interesting challenge. The Commodores are battle-tested through the SEC gauntlet and have two true stars leading the way in Khamil Pierre (20.5 PPG, 9.7 RPG, 3.0 SPG) and true freshman Mikalya Blakes (23.2 PPG, 2.3 SPG). If Blakes gets hot, the Commodores can beat just about anyone, but Vanderbilt has been susceptible defensively even with their impressive turnover numbers.
If Kelly or Peyton Scott can take over more of the Oregon attack and do so effectively, the Ducks will just need to contain that Vandy star power and this will be a battle. But that star power is very hard to contain, and I do give the Commodores the advantage here.
IF Oregon does advance though, I think Duke could be a very intriguing matchup as another defense-first unit that lacks a primary scorer.
Prediction: Round of 64
Nebraska
10 Seed
Region 3
Matchup: 7 Louisville, winner plays 2 TCU or 15 Fairleigh Dickinson
The Cornhuskers feel like a real dangerous bunch to play once again. Nebraska has shooters up and down the roster, and they particularly enjoy using a lot of said roster with a 10-player rotation that has played nearly every game this season.
If the threes are falling, Nebraska is hard to stop. The Cornhuskers are 22nd in threes made and 12th in three point percentage on the season, and have five players with 20+ threes made this year.
One of those players is Alexis Markowski, (16.5 PPG, 7.9 RPG), who has recently added a three-point weapon to her arsenal after already being a constant threat in the paint. Her increased versatility, along with the impressive poise of true freshman point guard Britt Prince (13.4 PPG, 3.7 APG), makes for a tough matchup in March.
Louisville is a NCAA Tournament staple, and similarly to Nebraska, they spread the ball around with multiple scorers who can make an impact. Teams have generally shot the ball quite well on the Cardinals this season, and Louisville is less inclined to rely on threes to win.
I like this matchup for Nebraska, and I think they can pull a mini upset here and take down the Cardinals. Jeff Walz has had plenty of tourney success for this group, so this is not a pick I make with extreme confidence, but I think the Cornhuskers can play spoiler on a Hailey Van Lith revenge game that is waiting in the next round.
Speaking of! A Nebraska win would likely lead to a matchup with TCU. The Horned Frogs are one of the most efficient teams in the country across the board, led by Van Lith (17.9 PPG, 5.3 APG) and another player (17.5 PPG, 9.6 RPG). If any team can compete with the Cornhusker’s barrage of threes, it’s likely TCU, and I’d predict Nebraska’s run to end there.
Prediction: Round of 32
Indiana
9 seed
Region 2
Matchup: 8 Utah, winner plays 1 South Carolina or 16 Tennessee Tech
The Hoosiers are back once again. At the beginning of the season, it didn’t look like a certainty as the group figured things out in a world without Mackenzie Holmes, but Indiana has shown flashes down the stretch to prove they are both worthy to be here and capable of making some noise.
Indiana’s offense continues to be efficient and free flowing, with an assisted shot rate that ranks 17th in the NCAA. Their veteran guard group of Yarden Garzon, Chloe Moore-McNeil, Sydney Parrish and Shay Ciezki are how this group often lives and dies, as each are capable of having a big performance when the team needs it.
Garzon is the big name to watch here, as she hits over 41 percent of her threes and has never been afraid of the big moment. Also watch for Tennessee transfer forward Karoline Striplin, who has become a key starter for the Hoosiers down the stretch.
Utah is a fascinating first opponent because they have an extremely similar story. The Utes lost Alissa Pili in the WNBA Draft and started the year slow with a stunning lost to Northwestern, but ultimately re-established their identity and come in among the nation’s best three-point shooting teams.
If Indiana wants to win this game, the Hoosiers must slow down Gianna Kneepkens (19.2 PPG, 45.0 3PT%), who is a true star that can score from just about anywhere. I anticipate this being a great, great game, and it may come down to which of these teams can hit more shots in the end. That makes me leeeeeeeean Indiana, as Utah’s three-point defense has been lackluster to this point. But this one’s truly a coin flip in my eyes, and is one of the must-watch games of the first round.
The winner of this is going to get a South Carolina team that somehow has found a way to feel slighted as the No. 2 overall seed in this tournament. They will also remember when Indiana very nearly pulled of an all-time stunner last season. I, unfortunately, don’t think the Hoosiers will be able to pull that same magic again.
Prediction: Round of 32
Illinois
8 seed
Region 3
Matchup: 9 Creighton, winner plays 1 Texas or 16 High Point/William & Mary
The Illini deserve so much credit for not only getting to this NCAA Tournament, but getting to it as a favored seed in the first round. None of that felt possible when Makira Cook and Gretchen Dolan both went down with season-ending injuries early in the season, but this group has figured out a way to make it work.
What is that way? A very narrow rotation of primarily 6-7 players, many of which have significant experience and the capability of winning games in this tournament. Kendall Bostic (15.9 PPG, 11.1 RPG) is one of the best, and most underrated, players in the conference, and Genesis Bryant (15.1 PPG, 39.3 3PT%) will not be afraid to take on a high volume of looks. Adalia McKenzie (13.5 PPG) has also been an excellent third option for this team down the stretch.
All of this is true and will be true for this opening matchup, but I think Creighton is a really unfortunate draw at the 9-seed. The Bluejays are an elite shooting team with elite assist-to-turnover numbers. They also don’t have a bad loss, period. Their six defeats are to UConn three times, UCLA, at Kansas State and at South Dakota State, aka four games against teams hosting NCAA Tournament games, the 5-seed Wildcats and the 10-seed Jackrabbits.
Creighton hasn’t lost to a team named UConn this calendar year, but if Illinois is to do it, Bostic will have to go nuclear on the boards, an area that is not the Bluejays’ strength. The Illini will have to find shots from not just Bryant, but also a player like true freshman Berry Wallace, who has shown a lot of bright flashes.
This should be a great game as well, but I would lean Creighton to take it with their impressive scoring repertoire. I actually think both of these teams have a legitimate chance to pull a upset over Texas, though I’d ultimately pick the Longhorns.
Prediction: Round of 64
Michigan State
7 seed
Region 1
Matchup: 10 Harvard, winner faces 2 NC State or 15 Vermont
The Spartans enter the NCAA Tournament on a bit of a sour note, losing six of their last 10 games, including an immediate exit to Iowa in the Big Ten Tournament. The last four of these defeats were to the aforementioned Hawkeyes, but also to UCLA, USC and Ohio State, so it’s hard to not at least say some of that cold stretch is due to the schedule.
Regardless, Michigan State is a team to fear thanks to a frustrating defense that forces the 10th-most turnovers in the country, along with a balanced, fast-paced attack that is 10th in assists per game as well.
If I have stopped singing the praises of Julia Ayrault, it will mean that I have passed away. She is a tremendous player who does not get enough credit for her last two seasons, and her versatility win both sides of the ball creates plenty of matchup nightmares for opponents. Grace VanSlooten and Theryn Hallock also share a large part of the workload, as do the five other Spartans that average 15+ minutes per game for a pretty deep rotation.
Harvard is going to be a hot pick for an upset, and understandably so. The Crimson are the Ivy League champs in a historically good year for the conference, and currently boast a 2-0 record against Big Ten teams. Harmoni Turner (22.5 PPG, 3.4 APG, 2.8 SPG) is also one of the best players in the country and can turn any game on its head.
The good news for Michigan State? The team is also 2-0 against the same Big Ten foes as Harvard (Indiana, Northwestern). Still, the Crimson average nearly as many turnovers forced as the Spartans and at a much slower pace, so this will be a real battle of who can hold onto the ball.
If Harvard can successfully slow down Michigan State, the Spartans are in trouble. If Michigan State can speed the Crimson up and slow down Turner, Harvard is the one in trouble. I understand why the upset will be chosen here, but I do believe in this Michigan State core to come through with its pressure and its ability to score from the charity stripe, something Harvard doesn’t do nearly as often.
The winner of this one likely faces NC State, who I think is not getting enough credit as a potential title contender. The Wolfpack are loaded at guard with experience and talent, and avoid turnovers or costly fouls. Those are both things Michigan State likes to exploit, and if NC State takes those away, it will likely find a victory at home.
Prediction: Round of 32
Michigan
6 seed
Region 3
Matchup: Winner of 11 Iowa State/Princeton, winner plays 3 Notre Dame or 14 Stephen F. Austin
The Wolverines have taken an extremely inexperienced group to some impressive heights already this season, with 22 victories including a recent blowout against Maryland.
Olivia Olson and Syla Swords combine to average 32.3 PPG and 11.5 RPG for this team as true freshmen, with nearly identical scoring numbers between them. Mila Holloway (9.8 PPG, 4.3 APG) is the third starting first-year player, and each are joined by the veteran Jordan Hobbs (13.4 PPG) to make for a really impressive unit to go up against.
The Wolverines have started five guards, the fifth being Greta Kampschroeder, the entire season, which could cause some matchup issues against Iowa State and Audi Crooks, who is a dominant presence inside. If they do face the Cyclones, Michigan’s 29th-ranked three-point percentage will be a huge deal, as Iowa State has been among the nation’s worst at defending the three ball all season.
Princeton is the other option for a first round opponent, and would make it a perfect 3 for 3 of Ivy League teams matching up with Big Ten opponents. Princeton, like many Ivy teams, plays a very slow pace that has caused fits for teams this season, including Rutgers who they took down with ease earlier in the season.
Of the two options, Iowa State instills more fear in me, but I do think the Wolverines have enough weapons to advance against either opponent they can face. I also think if their 3 seed was legitimately any of the other options, I would have seriously considered a Sweet 16 run for this talented group.
But Michigan got stuck with Notre Dame, who was in legitimate consideration for a 1 seed before losing 3 of 5 to end the season. The Fighting Irish have a remarkable guard duo that shoots the lights out and causes massive disruption on defense. As a team, Notre Dame is No. 1 in three-point percentage while opponents shoot below 27 percent from three. That’s a whole lot to overcome, and while I think Michigan is skilled enough to have a chance, I can’t get myself to pick against the Irish in South Bend.
Prediction: Round of 32
Iowa
6 seed
Region 4
Matchup: 11 Murray State, winner plays 3 Oklahoma or 14 Florida Gulf Coast
Finally, we have the Hawkeyes, who come into the tournament as the most in-form Big Ten team of this group.
Iowa has won 10 of its last 13 games, with the three defeats being to Ohio State, UCLA and USC, all by single digits. The Hawkeyes have looked like a much different team than the one that lost five straight in January, especially with Lucy Olsen (18.0 PPG, 4.9 APG) really coming into her own offensively.
While not the same team that went to back-to-back championship games, Iowa still has pieces from those runs, namely Sydney Affolter and Hannah Stuelke, who were key contributors and who could now lead this team on a run.
Their first test is Murray State, an offensive power that moves up and down the court, but is susceptible on defense. While Iowa could be prone to the three here, the Hawkeyes are a very good interior scoring team which is a weakness for the Racers, and I think Iowa will advance to the next round.
There, I don’t think it’s a given that it will be Oklahoma, but the Sooners are the big favorites and who I expect to get through over a new-look Florida Gulf Coast. If so, Iowa will have to face the nation’s No. 1 pace, which Oklahoma uses to score more than 85 PPG. Reagan Beers (17.5 PPG, 8.9 RPG, 66.0 FG%) is the highlight inside, but the Sooners have a long list of players after her that aren’t afraid to fire away.
Oklahoma has only lost to NCAA Tournament teams, but each of those losses saw them give up 80+ points. Iowa has the attack to do it, but the Hawkeyes simply cannot be forced into the Sooners’ pace, as Oklahoma is a deceptively excellent defensive unit with opposing numbers that only look bad because of how many possessions they prefer to have in a game.
I’m going to take Iowa in a nail-biter here to get to another Sweet 16, but there I believe they would fall to UConn. This season had more than four teams deserving of 1-seeds, as the Huskies are as talented as they have been since they last won a title in my eyes.
Still, a second weekend exit would be a massive success for the start of Jan Jensen’s tenure, and more five-stars are entering the door for this team very soon.
Tomorrow: Maryland, Ohio State, UCLA and USC breakdowns
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Photo Credit: Iowa Women’s Basketball (@IowaWBB), Twitter
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