Looking Back and Looking Forward
One last full-scale look at 2024-25, and thoughts on the seven Big Ten players drafted
As a reminder, next week will be my end-of-season Hoopla 40, a final look at who I believe were the best players in the Big Ten from last season. After that, I plan on taking a break until the end of May before looking at whatever the transfer portal fallout is at that time.
Before all of that though, we must talk about the WNBA Draft last night, and take another full-scope look at what happened this past season.
Last Week’s Hoopla:
An Anti-Climactic Finish
I entered the weekend with so much hope for three excellent matchups to close out the tournament. Instead, we got zero. Alas!
Preseason Rankings
While these are only accurate to my own personal feelings on these teams, I always find it interesting to look at how much each team over- or underperformed compared to where I placed them in the offseason.
Here is each Big Ten team, in order of how they finished in the conference standings, with my preseason rankings and the amount they moved in parentheses:
USC (Preseason: 1, —)
UCLA (Pre: 2, —)
Ohio State (Pre: 4, +1)
Maryland (Pre: 3, -1)
Michigan (Pre: 11, +6)
Michigan State (Pre: 9, +3)
Illinois (Pre: 7, —)
Oregon (Pre: 12, +4)
Indiana (Pre: 5, -4)
Nebraska (Pre: 6, -4)
Iowa (Pre: 8, -3)
Washington (Pre: 14, +2)
Minnesota (Pre: 10, -3)
Wisconsin (Pre: 13, -1)
Rutgers (Pre: 16, +1)
Purdue (Pre: 15, -1)
Northwestern (Pre: 18, +1)
Penn State (Pre: 17, -1)
Total: 3/18 Correct, 10/18 Within One, 2.0 Average Margin of Error
I only fully nailed the two California teams at the top and Illinois in seventh, but was within one spot of over half the conference which I will accept. Just like the season felt as it played out, it was the chaotic middle section of the Big Ten I was mostly clueless on, which makes sense considering teams ranked 5-13 all finished between eight and 11 conference wins.
Top Overperformers
Michigan
Oregon
Both of these teams make a lot of sense, and I completely understand both how I thought they would be worse and how they ended up making me look foolish.
For Michigan, who I was off by more than any other team in the Big Ten, it’s as simple as me thinking that three true freshman might need at least a little bit of time to succeed at the collegiate level in one of the toughest conferences in the country. Silly me!
This ranking felt cooked on literally day one when Michigan gave South Carolina a true scare thanks to Syla Swords heroics. The Wolverines weren’t perfect from there, but more than proved how much potential they possess and even won a NCAA Tournament game in the process. This group looks to be building in the portal and should be even more dangerous heading into next season.
Oregon was not full of first-year players, but it was a roster full of players who were playing their first season for the Ducks after an abysmal 2023-24 campaign. With Oregon’s trajectory feeling like it was going far more down and up heading into the season, I assumed that the transfers would also go through some rough patches despite the talent and end toward the bottom of the standings.
That did not happen! The Ducks were a constantly scrappy team that won a lot of games close, spread the ball around and nearly took Duke out of the NCAA Tournament in the Round of 32. It was an impressive run that should give Kelly Graves a lot more confidence moving forward.
Michigan State was the only other team I underrated by three placements or more. As much as I loved the new-look Spartans under Robyn Fralick last year, I was afraid that they lost too much with the departures of DeeDee Hagemann and Moira Joiner, and that they would have a similar sophomore slump to Illinois under Shauna Green. Nope! Fralick had the team playing great basketball once again, and I’m curious to see if that will keep rolling forward now without Julia Ayrault as well.
“Underperformers”
Indiana
Nebraska
While sure, there are two teams here that fell four spots from where I anticipated, as well as two other teams that fell three, all four of those teams either went to the NCAA Tournament or achieved different postseason success, so it’s safe to say that there were no significant disappointments here in my eyes.
The Hoosiers did not end up being a top five team, but that was perhaps too ambitious from me in the first place. Mackenzie Holmes was one of the best players in the country and there was no replacing what she brought. For Indiana to still make the mid-season adjustments to get to 20 wins, win a tourney game and again give South Carolina a fight felt like at least a modest success, certainly not an underperformance.
Nebraska fell four spots and did not win a NCAA Tournament game, but the Cornhuskers were also without Natalie Potts for basically the whole season. That was a huge unexpected blow, but Nebraska made it work, made some noise in the Big Ten Tournament yet again and showed a whole lot of promise for what the team can look like after Alexis Markowski. Again, not a season that felt like a failure to me.
The same goes for both teams that fell three spots from my preseason rankings: Iowa and Minnesota. The Hawkeyes had a remarkable second half of the season, and the Gophers won the WBIT despite losing their best player, Mara Braun, within the first few games. If anything, this season felt so promising for Minnesota that I am hoping to see this core stay together more than just about any other team in the conference.
WNBA Draft
Last night’s WNBA Draft, which always gives me whiplash coming like a week after the national championship game, offered a handful of surprises to sift through.
On the Big Ten front, seven players were drafted, but only one in the first round. I’m going to go through each of the draftees, as well as a bit of analysis on when they were taken and how I believe they can perform in the W.
Kiki Iriafen, First Round, No. 4 Overall to the Mystics
Iriafen was, as expected, the first Big Ten player off the board. I did not expect her to be alone in the first, but she is certainly a lottery talent that has the potential to be a real double-double threat on the interior. Iriafen has been a terrific rebounder, defender and secondary scorer for USC all season, and her midrange game should be of significant use in the WNBA. If she can expand her shot out further, or if she can find a touch more consistency as a primary option, I think she has all-star capabilities. A rebuilding Mystics roster is a great opportunity to get there as well.
Shyanne Sellers, Second Round, No. 17 Overall to the Valkyries
Sellers was a clear first round talent to me, so I believe Golden State is getting a steal here in the middle of the second. When healthy, Sellers can be the do-it-all point guard that the Valkyries can build around. She shot north of 40% from deep this season, is a tremendous passer and has the height and range to defend at the pro level. I worry about what WNBA teams saw regarding her health to have her slide this far, but if she can get to 100% there, this is going to look like a ridiculous placement in a few seasons.
Lucy Olsen, Second Round, No. 23 Overall to the Mystics
Kiki has company! Olsen joins Iriafen in Washington, along with other first-round picks Sonia Citron and Georgia Amoore, which may mean she has her work cut out for her to make the roster. Olsen became exactly what Iowa needed down the stretch last season, and her continued prowess as a lead guard makes her an exciting prospect. It may all come down to shooting, both on if a team will need her to be more consistent from deep, or if they will prioritize her impressive mid-range abilities.
Dalayah Daniels, Second Round, No. 24 Overall to the Lynx
This was a delightful second round surprise. Daniels was a terrific under-the-radar season for Washington, and showed great defensive ability averaging 1.5 steals and blocks per game. Minnesota has a deep roster that just went to the WNBA Finals, but the Lynx’s only draft pick ahead of Daniels — Russia’s Anastasiia Kosu — may not be available this season, which gives Daniels a real shot at making the roster.
Rayah Marshall, Second Round, No. 25 Overall to the Sun
A great landing spot for a player I am convinced is headed for a long WNBA career. Rayah Marshall may never be a high-volume scoring threat, but she was one of the best interior defenders in the country for USC last season and should continue to be an excellent defensive weapon moving forward. Connecticut is a perfect landing spot for her as well, as a team that is starting over, has space for her to develop, and also happens to have an all-time great vet at forward in Tina Charles to learn under.
Jordan Hobbs, Third Round, No. 34 Overall to the Storm
So happy to see Jordan Hobbs get drafted! She has grown considerably over her time at Michigan, and it was all rewarded with a breakout performance in the NCAA Tournament against Iowa State. She’s a great scorer, a solid passer and has the adaptability you would want from a rookie at the pro level.
Taylor Thierry, Third Round, No. 36 Overall to the Dream
Atlanta Dream fan checking in here, I am so amped up about both this pick and the Te-Hina Paopao selection in the second round. Thierry has always been an analytical darling at Ohio State because she is extremely efficient and does a little bit of everything while doing it well. I think that could be the exact type of player who can thrive off the bench in the WNBA, especially considering her size and versatility as a defender. Along with all of that, she is a knockdown shooter from three, something that the Dream don’t quite have from their current bigs. It’s always an uphill battle to make the roster from the third round, but Thierry is exactly who I was hoping the Dream would give a chance to do it.
Photo Credit: USC Women’s Basketball (@USCWBB), Twitter
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