Big Ten's Breakout Candidates
Five returnees I think could have a big 2024-25 season
I’m back again, now at 27 years of age, and I have more or less a game plan for the start of Preview SZN here on Hoopla. It’s going to go as follows: All 18 team previews will be released starting July 15 and ending October 14. They will be released the same order as in past years, from worst to best according to my own personal predicted order.
I’m keeping more or less the same structure from last year’s team previews, with a look at the roster changes, the key players to watch and the general storyline worth watching for with each team. This timeframe stretches 14 weeks, an amount of time that would have been perfect in prior seasons! But with four new Big Ten programs to add, that means I’ll just have to sneak in some weeks with multiple previews. This may lead to shorter previews overall, but it also may not mean that because I tend to get too invested in any team I write about in this conference.
Next week I will look at how I did in predicting the order from last season, and do a little bit of a wide-ranging conference overview before we jump in head first the following Monday. It truly is almost that time and I’m excited to get there.
Last Hoopla:
Now, onto the breakout candidates. As is the general case around here, there’s no super specific criteria that has to be met, besides that I only considered players returning to the Big Ten from last season. This does not necessarily mean players on the same team as last year as long as they remained within the conference.
These are listed in my personal order of most to least obvious choices.
Rashunda Jones, Purdue
23-24 Stats: 18.7 MPG | 7.8 PPG | 2.3 RPG | 1.7 APG | 0.9 SPG
I start my list with Jones because she feels like a clear breakout candidate for a few specific reasons. First, she’s coming off a first year that landed her on the Big Ten All-Freshman team. Second, she’s on a Purdue roster without a lot of key veterans from the year prior, so there’s room for a minutes increase.
But perhaps most importantly is that, when Jones did flash in her first year with the Boilermakers, she really, really flashed. Even with a PPG total below eight, Jones scored more than 15 points six times, three of which were against Big Ten opponents and another against Texas A&M.
One of these breakouts also came in the Big Ten Tournament, where Jones’ 19 points against Northwestern helped Purdue avoid an early upset. That was the game that fully sold me on the ceiling, as she looked fully ready to take on that spotlight and be Purdue’s No. 1 option when called upon.
Jeanae Terry and Abbey Ellis are both gone, as is Mary Ashley Stevenson, who was Purdue’s most decorated freshman last season. The stage is set for Jones to get a larger workload for the Boilermakers in year two, and I suspect she will rise to the challenge.
Taylor McCabe, Iowa
23-24 Stats: 8.2 MPG | 3.3 PPG | 0.6 APG | 35 3PT made | 46.1 3PT%
How does a player barely playing eight minutes per game become, to me, a clear candidate to break out? I would argue that Taylor McCabe did it by looking like one of the best shooters in the Big Ten despite such limited action.
The Iowa fanbase likely would have McCabe as the top candidate here, and for good reason. McCabe has made 55 threes on 124 attempts across 410 total minutes of action in her first two seasons. That’s a 44.4% efficiency on deep balls while averaging 5.4 made threes per 40 minutes. McCabe’s 5.2 threes made per 40 mins last season ranked third in the NCAA (minimum 20 games) behind only Binghamton’s Kaylee Krysztof and a little-known player named “Caitlin Clark.”
Another Iowa guard putting up a single Clark-level number should be considered a big deal, and that’s exactly what I hope Jan Jensen is thinking with McCabe. With Lucy Olsen entering the fray at point guard, it feels like McCabe could be the perfect three-point specialist to keep the Hawkeye offense humming as they enter a new era.
Despite the departures of Clark, Kate Martin and Gabbie Marshall, Iowa has once again remained very stable, only bringing in Olsen and without a single transfer out. Players like McCabe feel like the reason why, as Iowa may feel more comfortable finding a new offensive spark when they have a potential three-point flamethrower waiting in the wings.
Emma Shumate, Michigan State
23-24 Stats (Ohio State): 9.3 MPG | 4.1 PPG | 0.3 BPG | 43.1 3PT%
Shumate made the move from Columbus to East Lansing this offseason, and Robyn Fralick feels like the right kid of coach to get the best out of the rangy guard.
Shumate held an extremely similar role as McCabe for Ohio State, playing very limited minutes but firing away from deep when given the option — her 4.6 threes per 40 minutes was fifth in the country.
What makes Shumate stand out more is her defensive potential, which was evident in her 27 blocks as a true freshman. She has also been impressively turnover averse thus far in her collegiate career, with just 18 total across nearly 600 minutes of play.
While Shumate has to join a deep Michigan State roster, I think her skillset should be of plenty use to the Spartans, who preferred to spread their minutes out last season anyway. Moira Joiner is not the type of player to be directly replaced necessarily, but if Shumate can keep up a three-point efficiency that rose exactly 20 percentage points from her first year, she will get a sizable role for this Michigan State team.
Niamya Holloway, Minnesota
23-24 Stats: 13.2 MPG | 3.6 PPG | 3.1 RPG | 1.3 SPG
It was a real bummer to see Minnesota’s red hot start mostly fall to the wayside by the back half of the season due to injuries, but there is plenty of excitement to be had about the potential this roster still has, and I don’t think Holloway is discussed enough in that potential.
Coming off a full season missed from a knee injury, Holloway’s freshman campaign showcased decent scoring, but exceptional offensive rebounding and immense defensive potential. Holloway brought in 1.5 offensive boards and 1.3 steals per game last season, even in only 13 minutes per game. Her 4.6 offensive rebounds and 4.0 steals per 40 minutes were both among the best in the nation.
Both times Holloway played more than 20 minutes last season, she grabbed five offensive rebounds and had multiple steals. That is the type of player that can make a dramatic impact for you alongside scorers like Mara Braun, Amaya Battle and Grace Grocholski.
The way the Gophers are set up, Holloway feels like the perfect complimentary piece that can do far more than score. Now with a full collegiate season under her belt, I’m hoping Dawn Plitzuweit finds more ways to bring Holloway onto the court, because her skillset is extremely useful and only should grow from here.
Jayla Oden, Penn State
23-24 Stats: 15.3 MPG | 5.6 PPG | 1.1 APG | 0.7 SPG | 37.5 3PT%
My final choice is Oden, who comes into her second year with the Nittany Lions in a much different situation than a season ago.
While this is Oden’s second season with Penn State, it’s her fourth in the Big Ten after a pair of years with Illinois. That combination of experiences, plus where the Nittany Lions roster currently sits, makes me believe Oden could be the leader for Penn State in 24-25.
On the court, Oden made the most of her role with Penn State. She gave Carolyn Kieger solid production off the bench, improved her three-point accuracy by 17 percentage points from 22-23 and improved overall in rebound, assist and steal rates. This year, she is returning to a roster that loses its top six scorers, including long-time vets like Makenna Marisa and Leilani Kapinus.
There are new faces coming in, but Penn State is going to be searching for a new identity in many ways, and Oden’s Big Ten experience, specifically with a team that went through a major rebuild, could be crucial. Oden was on an Illinois team that was completely revamped under Shauna Green, and while Oden’s role didn’t change dramatically, most of everything around her did, and that should make this adjustment an easier one.
Penn State just had its best season yet under Kieger, but it is going to be a tough act to follow up. Oden’s stability and experience could make her a prime candidate for a huge role as they look to build on 23-24 and get into the NCAA Tournament.
Photo Credit: Purdue Athletics
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