Big Whiffs In The Big Dance
On a frustrating NCAA Tournament opening weekend, and the two from the Big Ten that made it through
Before getting into the mud of the NCAA Tournament, I must shoutout the five other Big Ten teams competing in postseason play.
Illinois, Minnesota, Penn State, Purdue and Wisconsin all entered either the WBIT or WNIT, and all five are still playing games as of me writing this. The teams are a combined 6-0, with the Illini and Nittany Lions both advancing twice, while the Boilermakers and Badgers utilized their first-round WNIT byes to get wins yesterday. Minnesota plays Pacific for its first game of the WNIT tonight.
There have been a lot of great performances here — both Illinois and Penn State came back from deficits to survive the first round, and the Nittany Lions did it through an overtime frame — but nothing compares to what Wisconsin did to advance last night.
The Badgers played Southern Indiana and fell down a cliff immediately, trailing 30-12 in the second quarter and 44-25 at half. It was looking grim, but Wisconsin’s defense found another great coming out of halftime.
USI was held without a point for more than five minutes, and while the Badgers only scored six in that span, it helped them establish some footing in the game. Still, even with a late three by Sania Copeland, Wisconsin trailed 55-42 with just 10 minutes to go.
Then, again, came the Badgers D to start the fourth. Another 3:15 of scoreless action for the Screaming Eagles led to a 7-0 Wisconsin run to cut the deficit to six. Even when USI found a basket, Ronnie Porter immediately countered it with a three to keep the snowball pushing. Then, a steal and three by Copeland made it 57-55 USI with 5:33 to go.
Wisconsin found the tie, then the lead with 4:25 to play, going up as much as 63-57 before the Screaming Eagles could end the run: a 21-2 Wisconsin barrage in the fourth quarter to take the lead it would not give up the rest of the way.
Serah Williams (24 points, 11 rebounds, 7 blocks) and Porter (19 points) led the charge on this incredible comeback to keep Wisconsin’s seasons alive. Well done, Badgers.
If you read my stuff last week, you were read a lot of thoughts that ended up being very wrong. Sorry about that!
Some of my overall NCAA Tournament upsets (Marshall, yikes) were very not good, but what hurt the most was my misses on how the Big Ten would fare through the opening weekend. But, to be fair to myself on those, this conference was in position to win basically every game it lost, minus the Nebraska defeat to Oregon State.
The Big Ten is 6-5 in the NCAA Tournament right now, and has two teams into the Sweet 16: Indiana and Iowa. We will talk about them in a moment, but let’s first talk about the shortcomings that… well that hurt to witness.
Round of 64
Michigan State
This is the anomaly, because the Spartans were actually down basically the entire game.
North Carolina jumped out to a 23-10 first quarter lead, and Michigan State looked unprepared for the big moment. But the next 30 minutes where the Spartans, very slowly, inching themselves back into the game, highlighted by a third quarter where both teams combined to score 17 points. Michigan State averages 83 points per game themselves!
The UNC lead was 54-42 with 2:25 to go, and the game felt over, but then Michigan State made it interesting. Some free throws, a UNC turnover followed by a layup, then another Tar Heels turnover followed by three made free throws to make it 54-49 with 48 seconds to play.
Then, yet another UNC turnover leading to a DeeDee Hagemann layup. 54-51 Tar Heels with 38 to go off a 9-0 Michigan State run. North Carolina split free throws, and Tory Ozment followed that with another layup to cut it to 55-53. UNC free throws, then bang, a Theryn Hallock three. It was a one-point game with eight seconds left.
But, alas. UNC split free throws, but got an offensive rebound and went back to the line. Remarkably, the Heels split the pair AGAIN, but got another offensive board to wrap it up. Alyssa Utsby was remarkable in this game: 16 points, 17 rebounds, 6 assists and 3 blocks. She helped North Carolina outbound Sparty 45-27, which was the major difference between the teams.
Maryland
OK, time for the real pain.
Maryland played what I would describe as a near-flawless first half. The Terps were hitting shots, they were moving the ball well and they were containing just about everything Iowa State was doing.
Just about.
The Maryland lead was as high as 20 in the first half, and the Terps led 52-36 at halftime, but Audi Crooks was proving to be an issue inside.
Well about that! Maryland’s entire halftime lead vanished by the end of the third quarter. A 30-14 Iowa State advantage made it tied at 66 with 10 minutes to go, and the answers for Crooks were still not showing up.
This fourth quarter was excellent viewing as the teams exchanged blows each way, but with Iowa State controlling the small lead and the overall momentum. And most importantly, the Cyclones always had the answer: Crooks, who finished with 40 points on 18-of-20 shooting. The definition of unstoppable.
Maryland couldn’t keep up with what felt like two free points whenever Iowa State considered it, and the Cyclones finished the historic comeback with a 93-86 win.
This one hurt because it felt like Maryland was doing everything else right. The team shot the ball well, kept it respectable on turnovers and got an unbelievable 29 points off the bench from Allie Kubek to get there. It didn’t matter because Crooks didn't allow it to matter, and the Terps were sent home.
Michigan
This was another great game, and we even got an extra frame of it, but this was another one that a Big Ten team let slip through its fingers.
Michigan went up 60-50 with six minutes to play, and had successfully contained Kansas’ offense the entire day. It quickly became 60-56 after a Michigan turnover, missed shot and two fouls, but the Wolverines hit shots of their own and still remained up two possessions — 67-62 — as this game went under two minutes.
That’s when the Wolverines’ offensive possessions stopped moving. I know it is important to kill clock late in the game, but Michigan did it to the full detriment of getting a remotely good shot in the final few chances it got in regulation. That led to the Wolverines not scoring the rest of the fourth quarter, and Kansas finding a miraculous three with 12 seconds left that rattled in to tie this game at 67.
Overtime was not quite the same. Lauren Hansen had five points to keep Michigan in striking distance, but the Jayhawks controlled the tempo and ended up with an 81-72 victory to advance.
The Wolverines controlled turnovers all game, but committed 5 of their 13 on the game after going up 10 points halfway through the fourth. Cameron Williams (18 points) did excellent work inside all game, but did end up fouling out, and Michigan wasn’t able to make up the difference in OT.
Michigan’s program should be getting a lightning bolt of a jolt with who is coming in this offseason, and this was still a success of a season getting to the NCAA Tournament in the first place. But still, the loss hurts simply on how it came to be.
Round of 32
The four Big Ten teams favored by seed did get through their opening games with varying difficulty. Three of those teams would also be favored here, but only two are still playing this weekend.
Nebraska
The Cornhuskers scared the life out of me against Texas A&M, threatening to also blow a big lead before just barely surviving to play Oregon State.
Nebraska stayed in striking distance throughout the first three quarters, but the offense just absolutely could not find a spark to make it happen. The Cornhuskers shot 31.3% from the field and 20% from three, their top three scorers (Alexis Markowski, Jaz Shelley, Natalie Potts) were a combined 8-for-35, and Oregon State controlled the fourth quarter for a 61-51 win.
It was a lackluster ending compared to the potential Nebraska showed in the Big Ten Tournament, but a win for the program here is significant. And the Cornhuskers should be set up for success with how strong Potts and Logan Nissley were in their freshman seasons, even with the departure of Shelley.
Ohio State
Alright, final section of pain is saved for the one that hurt the most, and I know Ohio State knows it too.
The Buckeyes were, for many weeks, the No. 2 team in the country and was absolutely playing like it. They won every game on their schedule for the first two months of 2024. To finish the season 1-3 in their last four games is agonizing, but that’s what occurred on Sunday.
Man, this game started so strong, too. Ohio State started the game up 30-14, Cotie McMahon was playing in her peak form and, even with no three pointers falling, the Buckeyes were fully controlling the game through their smothering press defense.
A three-point make from Duke changed everything. The Blue Devils found confidence, then they immediately hit another one, and it was 30-20 with Duke momentum. Another Reigan Richardson three falls, and it helps spark what ends up being an 18-6 Duke run to end the half, and we officially had a game.
All year, third quarter Ohio State has been a terrifying beast that teams really struggled to do anything about, but that fell flat against Iowa and Maryland, and it fell flat against the Blue Devils, too. Players not named Cotie McMahon scored three points for Ohio State in the first 9:59 of the third quarter. Two Rikki Harris free throws to end the frame made it 51-50 in favor of the Blue Devils, with the Buckeyes absolutely still in the contest.
The fourth quarter started back and forth, and Ohio State was up 57-56 with 5:36 to go. But Richardson came up huge, going on a personal 7-0 run to put Duke up six. She scored Duke’s next three points as well to make it 66-59 with 1:51 remaining, and Ohio State simply could not score. All the strong shooting and efficient attack from the earlier season was sniffed out and well contained by an excellent Blue Devils defense, and it was Duke who stunned the Buckeyes in Columbus with a 75-63 win.
Ohio State was 1 for 11 from three on the day. The Buckeyes shot 35.2 percent from deep all season on 21.6 attempts per game. It was obviously disappointing to see them miss the shots, but it was equally disappointing to see Ohio State give up on taking those shots after a year proving it was capable of that.
Cotie McMahon (27 points, 9/17 FG) was spectacular in keeping the Buckeyes in this game, but the rest of Ohio State was 13 for 37, which just can’t happen. Ohio State had three steals in under six minutes to start the game, all by Celeste Taylor, then had just four steals the rest of the game as the defense slowly lost control of the contest.
It’s a bummer, and credit to Duke for finding the answers to make the comeback in rapid fashion. But Ohio State knows it had to be better here. Now, for the second year in a row, the Big Ten regular season champ falls in the Round of 32.
In Summary, these losses stung in a big way to me, and to anyone who roots for these teams. I think each of them feels they were a few bounces away from playing another game. But, man most of these games were just excellent from a neutral viewpoint.
Crazy comebacks, wild swings of momentum, star turns and great clashing styles of play, these games had it all. Unfortunately, the Big Ten was on the wrong side of so many of these bangers, but that’s just how it goes sometimes.
And the conference isn’t done just yet!
Sweet 16 Outlook
Indiana
The Hoosiers have had a great run to get to the second weekend, taking down a Fairfield team that hadn’t lost since November. It was a close game for much of the first half, but once the Hoosiers found the gear, there was no looking back, and it led to a dominant victory.
The Oklahoma game was less smooth sailing. This was a battle from start to finish, and an excellent game to watch like so many other Big Ten contests have been this tournament. The difference here was that the Hoosiers showed the composure to finish.
Indiana trailed the Sooners 64-60 with 2:41 to go after an Aubrey Joens’ and-one the other way. That’s when Mackenzie Holmes took over. In her final game at Assembly Hall, Holmes was fantastic, finishing with 29 points, 6 rebounds and 4 blocks. Her personal 6-0 run gave the Hoosiers a lead with 1:17 to play, then Yarden Garzon and Sara Scalia added to it to seal the deal on a 10-0 run when the team absolutely needed it most.
Scalia and Garzon were quiet in this one, shooting a combined 4 for 17. Sydney Parrish (17 points, 8 rebounds, 5 assists) picked up the slack, as did Chloe Moore-McNeil (9 points, 9 rebounds, 5 assists), who controlled the tempo and slowed the Hoosiers down when it was needed.
Of course, this leads to Indiana having to play South Carolina, a team that dominates all aspects of most games it plays. If you’re going to pull off the upset against these Gamecocks, you’ll need to find a way to win on the perimeter. This has gotten harder now that South Carolina is the second-best three-point shooting team in the nation, but the Gamecocks still prefer to work the ball inside and don’t take an abundance of deep shots.
Their actual flaw is free throw shooting, where South Carolina shoots 68.8%. I am not suggesting a hacking strategy, but it may be of note that, of the Gamecocks’ six players with the most minutes, five of them shoot below 70% from the line.
Indiana will need to hit threes, because South Carolina’s size and athleticism make it extremely difficult to work it inside. Kamilla Cardoso is a superb defender and will be a tough matchup for Holmes, so Scalia, Garzon and Parrish will have to be at their very best, because they do actually matchup well with guard size.
I think Indiana can win this, and I think the Hoosiers are one of just a few teams in the nation that I can say that about barring a full South Carolina collapse. However, I wouldn’t anticipate it, so I’ll wait out this matchup to see if I should discuss future Hoosier opponents.
Iowa
The Hawkeyes are yet to play their best basketball in this NCAA Tournament, which is both a good and bad thing since hey, at least they are still here playing games to try and find their form.
The 91-65 Holy Cross win was fine, especially considering Hannah Stuelke missed the second half out of precaution for her illness, but the West Virginia game was a sloppy war that easily could have went the other way.
A 48-38 Iowa lead to start the fourth quarter became a tie game after the Hawkeyes failed to score for more than five minutes. It was tied again at 50 and 52, but from there, Iowa limited West Virginia’s attack, got to the free throw line, and finished out an ugly one with a 64-54 victory. Caitlin Clark had 32 points and 8 rebounds, but shot 8 of 22 and had six turnovers to just three assists. Kate Martin and Gabbie Marshall were 2 for 11 overall, and Marshall was shut out entirely.
These are things that Iowa can survive against West Virginia. I’m not sure the Hawkeyes can do it at any point from here on out. They avoided a third Kansas State matchup, but Colorado has proven capable of mucking it up for teams (63-50 win in Round of 32) or playing with pace (86-73 win in Round of 64). It should be an exciting matchup, and the Hawkeyes would get one of LSU or UCLA after that.
A quick detour on the foul talks for Iowa-West Virginia. The fouls in the game were 27-11 West Virginia, and the free throws were 30-5 Iowa. Those numbers with no context look very bad, I get it, and I can understand some frustration. But West Virginia did settle for 34 three attempts while Iowa’s main attack in the game was forcing contact inside. That is the larger reason for the disparity in my eyes.
Anyway, LSU or UCLA. Maybe that Kim Mulkey bomb drop of a story comes out before the next games. I would love to see it, personally, and the Tigers have already looked anything but stable to start this NCAA Tournament. The Bruins handled business in the first round, but scrapped out a 67-63 win over a good Creighton team thanks, largely, to a 40-22 rebound advantage.
That’s the type of thing that concerns me about an Iowa matchup against either of these teams. LSU has been more prone to sloppy play and bad turnovers this tournament, while UCLA has felt more stable and methodical in its approach. Get LSU when that team is hot and the Tigers can absolutely repeat as champions. Maybe a Mulkey hit piece turns them into full-blown villains and they come out on fire. Regardless, Iowa will need to stay competitive on the glass and avoid any sort of foul trouble to avenge last year’s loss, or to take down a very good UCLA team if they get there.
See you back here, likely on Tuesday as long as Iowa beats Colorado. Or earlier if Indiana pulls a miracle against the Gamecocks.
Photo Credit: Rich Janzaruk, Bloomington Herald Times (via @MattGlenesk, Twitter/X)
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