Cincinnati Can Beat Alabama
But a loss of any kind doesn't change anything
Hello my dear readers of Hoopla, this is going to be a relatively short read as I mentally prepare for the stress of watching my beloved Cincinnati Bearcats take on Alabama in the ultimate David vs. Goliath.
It is David vs. Goliath, though, on names alone. Nick Saban is the greatest college football head coach of all-time and Alabama is in the running for a title more often than it isn’t under him, but these two teams do not scream mismatch when looking at résumés and each team’s respective strengths and weaknesses.
Alabama’s strengths are clear: Bryce Young is a Heisman-winning quarterback, and Jameson Williams very well could be the best wide receiver in the country. Against Georgia, the two were unstoppable:
Young: 26 of 44, 421 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT | 3 rush, 40 yards, TD
Williams: 7 catches, 184 yards, 2 TD
I think the thought generally around the country right now is that if Georgia’s defense couldn’t stop this team — a defense considered historically great — than how can Cincinnati’s?
For starters, I was certainly shocked how well Alabama moved the ball against the Bulldogs, but Georgia’s defense was exceptional for different reasons than Cincinnati’s. Georgia has freak athletes all over the field and completely suffocated the first 12 opponents it played thanks to that athleticism.
Cincinnati has good athletes, certainly, but Luke Fickell is maybe the best defensive mind in the nation, and it is the schemes and the way he utilizes his guys that makes the Bearcats special. Also, Georgia’s key defensive strength was not in its secondary. Cincinnati’s is, with Sauce Gardner and Coby Bryant making up the best corner duo in the country, almost undoubtedly.
Gardner and Bryant are the key in this game. Alabama’s two-headed receiving monster is down to one after the injury to John Metchie. This corner duo is capable of slowing down Williams, and if they do, this offense doesn’t have much left to work with.
Alabama’s rushing offense has been, to put it kindly, shit all year. It wasn’t good against Georgia either, with both Brian Robinson and Trey Sanders averaging 3.5 yards per carry or less. With no Metchie to help take attention away from Williams, Young will need other receivers like Slade Bolden, freshman Ja’Corey Brooks or tight end Jahleel Billingsley to step up, and even then one of Bryant or Gardner is still available to help.
Sticking with Alabama’s offense, the O-Line has been a concern much of the season before having a breakout game against Georgia’s usually dominant front seven. Maybe the Tide’s line rides the momentum into this game, or maybe they relapse into what they have been most of this season.
If Cincinnati can hold Alabama’s offense to 30 points or less, which I think is absolutely possible, then the Bearcats can win this game. Desmond Ridder is a veteran presence at quarterback that has the arm strength to do damage to the Crimson Tide’s secondary. Remember: if Auburn had an offense that was remotely capable, this game wouldn’t even be happening.
The Bearcats certainly have more weapons than Auburn, with running back Jerome Ford playing exceptionally late in the year and Alec Pierce remaining as a tremendous receiver threat for Ridder to use.
Cincinnati does not have to change its identity to play with Alabama, and that is huge. What the Bearcats shine in can work again here, but I think the big thing to watch is how Cincy comes out of the gates.
For as much as I have enjoyed watching the Bearcats this year, they tend to start slow or have a lull mid-game before coming out of that lull and destroying whoever was in its way. The exceptions, which is a good sign, were two of the biggest games of the year:
Cincinnati went up 17-0 on Notre Dame at halftime before winning 24-13
Cincinnati went up 41-0 on SMU after three quarters before winning 48-14
If Cincy comes out like that against Bama, I think they’ll win. Even if they don’t, I think they absolutely can win because they are one of the best teams in the country and Alabama looked like garbage for a month before beating Georgia.
Remember that Cincy killed Houston and Bama almost lost to Auburn. Houston beat Auburn a few days ago if the transitive property means anything to you. Anyway
In Case of a Loss
This is me covering all my bases because I can sense the takes getting fired up if Cincinnati loses this game, especially if it is lopsided.
I want to reiterate that I do not expect that to happen, but you never know, so I felt I should say why the loss would not matter regarding future Group of Five teams, etc.
For starters, as I said above, Cincinnati has earned this. The Bearcats went 13-0 as the only undefeated team in the nation, won its conference in dominant fashion and beat Notre Dame, the No. 5 team in the country, on the road, handedly.
Second, teams get blown out in the playoff literally every year.
If a G5 team getting blown out means that other G5 teams should never get in, I would like to revoke the opportunity for Michigan State, Washington, Oklahoma or Notre Dame to ever make it in here again. Ohio State has been blown out. Clemson has been blown out. Yelling about Cincinnati if it were to lose big is ridiculous.
Third, and most importantly, you are lame and cringe if you yell about Cincinnati making it in. This is, very clearly, a cool and good thing for the sport and if you wanted a team like two-loss Ohio State in here instead I suggest you never watch the sport again.
I think Cincinnati is going to beat Alabama, I really do. I also think that if the Bearcats lose, they will lose close because they are a team that fights like hell and have proven over and over again that they are a top four team in the country.
What a ride this year has been for this season’s protagonists. Let’s hope it continues forward.
If you are interested in me talking about random topics like this, or on my more focused posts with Big Ten women’s basketball, you can subscribe with the button above or share with the button below.