Depth On Display
Michigan and Penn State's hot starts in the face of struggles at the Big Ten's top tier
It’s been an interesting up-and-down two weeks for the Big Ten to open up non-conference play. Eleven of 14 teams have already taken a loss. Many of those were to be expected, but there have been a handful of head-scratching results that have taken the national perspective down a peg on the teams at large.
But there were also some really, really impressive wins this week by Big Ten teams that both I and the national landscape don’t talk about enough, so let’s start there.
How is the strength of a conference measured? Fair or not, the answer is usually based on how the best teams are performing, at least in general conversations.
If a conference is getting a lot of teams into the NCAA Tournament and those teams are winning games in the Tournament, that’s the look of a good conference. If that conference is picking up marquee non-conference victories over ranked opponents, that means a lot.
It means less if, say, teams toward the bottom of a conference are overperforming. It could be used as a larger argument later on, but usually only to show how many “good wins” the top teams have by playing strong competition throughout conference play.
All of this is to say one thing: The Big Ten has not picked up an impressive win at the top outside of Iowa’s victory over Virginia Tech. On my arbitrary measure of the “big games” between the Big Ten’s projected top teams — Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Maryland and Ohio State were all ranked in the opening Top 25 — and other ranked opponents, the conference currently holds a 1-6 record.
So, is the Big Ten bad? Are my agendas crumbling?
Fortunately, this conference is more than its preseason rankings.
Lions, Badgers And Wolverines (Oh My)
Michigan, Michigan State and Penn State are the Big Ten’s final undefeated teams. And while yes, the Spartans deserve credit for that, I want to see them play tougher competition before talking about their new look. But still, wow they are crunching these opponents, averaging nearly 100 PPG in the process.
Penn State is the team that has impressed me the most to this point, and the Nittany Lions earned a pair of solid victories this week to prove they are headed in the right direction. The 91-85 home win over Kansas, immediately followed by a 69-53 road victory against St. John’s are games against beatable teams, yes, but by no means pushovers for a team coming off a 14-17 season.
Kansas won 25 games last year. St. John’s won 23 and made the NCAA Tournament. But Penn State took down both of them, even without Ashley Owusu entering the fray yet. The offense is moving really well so far, with the Nittany Lions ranking 10th in assists (21.5 per game) and 4th in effective field goal percentage (60.3%) nationally.
A lot of players have stepped up to get to this 4-0 start, but Makenna Marisa’s resurgence has been the key. Marisa was still a great player last season, but the dips in efficiency were a concern. Thus far, she is averaging 19.8 PPG on 56.1/46.7/88.9 splits, exceptional shooting from every level. She also had her best performance against the toughest competition, igniting for 34 points (11/18 FG, 4/6 3PT) and 7 assists against Kansas. It was a superstar performance, and it makes me excited to see where she can take this Penn State roster in her final season.
Hopefully Owusu is back on the court soon, and Penn State has huge matchups coming up this week that could certainly end this undefeated stretch. I want to see what happens after a loss and with Owusu playing, but this has been the start I was really hoping to see from this roster.
I want to talk about the Wolverines as well, who are 4-0 and tipping off against Ole Miss at noon the day this goes up. That game is not included here, but regardless of the outcome this has been an excellent start for a program that faced more questions than normal.
Despite *gestures at Kim Barnes Arico’s entire Michigan tenure*, this Wolverines roster was not ranked, it was not projected very highly for NCAA Tournament bids and it was picked to be in sixth place by this very newsletter. There’s obviously so much season left, but the Wolverines are looking like the same great team they have been for awhile now.
Two neutral site wins over Middle Tennessee and South Dakota by double figures should not be overlooked: those are two excellent mid-major programs that have given fits to plenty of teams in recent years. These two victories also came very differently, showing the Wolverines still have loads of depth to work with.
Against the Blue Raiders, Michigan was led by Laila Phelia, who has been very good for most of these early contests. She had an efficient 20 points, didn’t turn the ball over, and the Wolverines controlled most of the contest. South Dakota was different: Phelia shot 5 of 21 for the day, and the first quarter ended 10-9 as neither team could get it going.
Enter Western Michigan transfer Taylor Williams. The fourth-year led Michigan with 19 points and 18(!!) rebounds, 12 of which were offensive (!!!!!!!). She also had five steals in one of the best all-around performances of the season in the Big Ten. Michigan outscored the Coyotes 60-43 the rest of the way.
I knew Phelia would be the star, and she has been, all while committing one single turnover through four games. But it is the complementary scoring that will allow the Wolverines to fully hit their stride. So far, so good.
I finally wanted to talk about Wisconsin, who did lose its first game of the season to Kansas State, but proved plenty to me with what it did earlier in the week.
South Dakota State has won at least 20 games in 12 straight seasons. It is a mid-major juggernaut that was favored by 7 points on the road against the Badgers. But Wisconsin scratched and clawed and battled its way to a 66-64 victory, doing so with a flair for the dramatic as Brooke Schramek hit the game-winning layup with a second to go. Extra kudos to freshman D’Yanis Jimenez for keeping her composure (and dribble) after stumbling to find Schramek for the winner.
Marisa Moseley’s teams have felt defensive minded from the start, and the Badgers used 28 South Dakota State turnovers to earn this huge win. It was also a breakout performance for Ronnie Porter, who tallied 17 points, 6 assists and 5 steals to lead the way.
I was low on Wisconsin in the preseason, but this is the type of win that can really inspire confidence in a young roster. This is hopefully a much-needed step in the right direction for the Badgers
Maryland Struggles Continue
The good is more enjoyable to talk about than the bad, but both of these things needed to be talked about.
Let’s start with Maryland. The Terrapins always have a difficult non-conference schedule and I think that is an overall plus for both them and the sport at large. Big games are awesome, and the wins that could come from them are more significant than an early loss to a great opponent.
That changes when you lose both big games by a combined 70 points.
Maryland’s 38-point loss to South Carolina stung, but that Gamecocks roster looks completely terrifying. It was the 32-point loss to UConn that changed the dialogue for me, as the Huskies have already proven vulnerable this season and were without guard Azzi Fudd for the game.
This is a UConn team Maryland beat last year. Yes, I know the Huskies were significantly injured last season, but to go from a win to a 32-point beatdown when UConn was again not 100 percent is a real sign of worry.
Maryland’s nail-biter of a victory against Syracuse to end the week didn’t change much in the narrative. The Orange are a solid team, but were middle of the pack in the ACC, and the Terps needed 23 huge points from Allie Kubek off the bench to win by 2.
If anyone can get this team to play more towards what we all expected, it is Brenda Frese, who has done it plenty over her tenure with the program. This is not a Code Red, Press The Eject Button signal, but I really want to see a convincing Maryland win, and I want to see this defense allow under 75 points for the first time this season.
The Caitlin Clark Game From Hell
Sigh, this one was tough, my dear readers.
Iowa lost to Kansas State for the second straight year, this time at home, and this time by scoring under 60 points.
The Wildcats have the Hawkeyes’ number in some way, but these two upsets felt entirely different, and it all has to do with the main character.
In the loss last year, Caitlin Clark had what I would label an average performance by her standards. She had 27 points, 10 rebounds and 7 assists with only 3 turnovers. She only shot 6 for 17 from the field, but made up for it with 16 free-throw attempts in what ended up being a high-scoring 84-83 defeat.
That was not the case on Thursday.
Iowa shot the ball 61 times. Players not named Caitlin Clark shot the ball 29 times. Clark shot it 32 times. She made just 9 of those attempts and only went to the line for 5 free-throws. She went 2 for 16 from three.
With 2:43 to play, Iowa held a 58-53 lead. Their offensive possessions went as followed:
Missed 2PT by Clark
Turnover by Hannah Stuelke
Missed 2PT by Clark
Missed 3PT by Clark
Missed 3PT by Clark
Missed 3PT by Clark
Kansas State ended the game on a 12-0 run to win 65-58.
I watched this game, and the box score paints the same picture my eyes did. The entire Kansas State team knew where the ball was going, the Wildcats played terrific defense and Clark kept firing anyways, often missing badly down the stretch to try and keep her team in the game.
It felt like a version of Clark’s 2021-22 season, where she shot a career-low 33.2 percent from three and committed 4.8 turnovers per game, often because she was trying to overly force the action.
Iowa followed this up with an offensive masterclass against Drake, and Clark’s numbers on the season are still excellent, so don’t take this as me turning against Clark’s game. She is one of the most exciting and talented players the collegiate level has ever seen.
But she can’t do that in games like this. She avoided doing that throughout the NCAA Tournament, carrying the heavy scoring burden but doing it well, getting to the rim when the shots weren’t there. Each of those final missed threes against Kansas State felt like a bad shot, and not in a Clark “deep but makable” way. There were better options available, and the misses cost them a victory.
Clark is averaging 23 field goal attempts a game, far more than she ever has. No one else on the team is even averaging 8 attempts per game. She is averaging 18.4 more points than Hannah Stuelke (31.0 → 12.6), who is second on the team. That is not sustainable if Iowa wants to go on a similar run it did last season.
The Drake win may help open things up. Kate Martin had a breakout performance on Sunday and may need to continue to fire in order to help Clark find space. I’m also waiting on Gabbie Marshall, who has been so good throughout her Hawkeyes career, to catch fire. In five games this year, Marshall has scored 17 points once, scored 2 points once, and has been completely shut out three times. If she can find consistency, it will mean everything to what Iowa can achieve.
Though both Kansas State losses feel very different, they both have one thing in common: They happened in the first month of the season. Iowa can fix this with ease, and have plenty of time to do that. Maybe it took a game like this for Lisa Bluder to realize it.
There are so many tournaments happening throughout this next week that What To Watch could be 15 games long. Whichever team you’re interested in probably has games worth checking out, and I’ll just link you to the Big Ten Schedule to let you decide.
Feature Photo Credit: Penn State Athletics
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