Early Conference Matchups Takeaways
Plus Maryland and Iowa's big wins and Michigan's stunning loss
Big Ten women’s basketball is back in non-conference play until Dec. 28, and 12 of the 14 teams have played two in-conference matchups to make sweeping opinions from (Michigan and Northwestern only played each other).
So, let’s make some takeaways from the 14 Big Ten matchups that have occurred, but first, there were three big results in non-conference play worth touching on.
No. 16 Iowa 70, No. 10 Iowa State 57
The Hawkeyes got their first major victory of the season on Wednesday, taking down their in-state rival with a monster second half. Iowa scored just 23 points in the first half, and Caitlin Clark was 2 for 14 from the field. The Hawkeyes then outscored the Cyclones 47-29 the rest of the way, with Clark going 5 for 6 in that span.
It’s a win Iowa really needed after three early defeats, and it showed just how good this team can be when it’s firing on all cylinders.
No. 14 Michigan 68, Toledo 71
Toledo was outrebounded and had nearly double the turnovers (21 to 11), and still the Rockets managed to pull off the major upset, on the road, against a previously undefeated Michigan team.
The Wolverines trailed 43-31 at halftime off the back of some bad shooting and could not recover, ultimately falling by three. Laila Phelia (20 points, eight rebounds) and Emily Kiser (15 points, eight rebounds) had solid games, but not much else worked for Michigan on this day. This feels like a fluke, but certainly something to keep an eye on moving forward.
No. 20 Maryland 85, No. 6 UConn 78
Yes, UConn has a laundry list of key injuries right now, but any win over the Huskies is a very big deal. Abby Meyers (20 points), Shyanne Sellers (19) and Diamond Miller (17) led the Terps in scoring, with 10 of Miller’s points coming in the fourth to help seal the victory.
Maryland’s season has been very weird so far, but this is another moment that shows how good this team could be if it all clicks.
Early Conference Play Takeaways
Let’s try to take stock of where each Big Ten team is at this point in the season, with the in-conference matchups holding the most weight in valuing the teams.
Of course, 14 games is not enough to tell us everything, so non-conference games are not thrown out entirely. Still, there were results in the conference matchups that show some teams may be more ready to compete than expected, or vice versa.
Risers
Michigan (Preseason Hoopla Rank: 6th)
Purdue (Preseason Rank: 8th)
Minnesota (Preseason Rank: 12th)
Illinois (Preseason Rank: 13th)
Michigan, even with the Toledo loss, has been better than expected so far this season. With only a nine-point Northwestern win in conference, I’m going full body of work here.
I thought Purdue was going to be a potential NCAA Tournament team this year, and that is looking more and more like the case. A hard-fought Michigan State win and a loss to Maryland on a buzzer-beater showed that this team can compete with anyone in this conference.
Minnesota did get blown out by Iowa, but a double-overtime win over Penn State is not something I expected from a team this inexperienced. The Gophers aren’t lighting the world on fire, but they are playing solid basketball behind Mara Braun’s impressive freshman campaign.
THE riser of this group is Illinois, who I had near the bottom of the Big Ten when considering *gestures to everything Illinois has done the past decade*. But no, Shauna Green has crafted a team ready to win games now, and Makira Cook has been a true star in the process. Nearly upsetting Indiana then taking care of business against Rutgers is a great start to Big Ten play.
Fallers
Maryland (Previous Rank: 4th)
Michigan State (Previous Rank: 7th)
Northwestern (Previous Rank: 9th)
Wisconsin (Previous Rank: 11th)
None of these teams are in free fall, but I have less optimism about each of them in different ways.
Maryland has wins over Baylor, Notre Dame and UConn but lands here. Why? Because its two Big Ten games are a 23-point home loss to Nebraska and a nail-biter 77-74 win over Purdue. That’s not encouraging, and I need to see more of the Maryland team that’s winning those big games.
Michigan State started the season 6-0 and has lost five straight. Yes, the competition improved mightily, but losing to Purdue at home is tough to swallow. The Ohio State loss is more understandable, but the Spartans really need to find a spark.
Northwestern has been the Big Ten’s least interesting team so far. I haven’t had much to say about the Wildcats, who are 4-5 with four wins against bad teams and five losses by double digits from teams ranking from excellent to just alright. Ninth isn’t a very high bar, but I’m not sure Northwestern is even a top 10 Big Ten team thus far.
I thought Wisconsin would make a sizable jump in year two under Marisa Moseley, but the Badgers are now 4-8, including two Big Ten losses by a combined 59 points. Those defeats were to Iowa and Nebraska, sure, but I wanted to see more fight from a team that has been defensively strong at times this season.
As Expected
Iowa (Previous Rank: 1st)
Indiana (Previous Rank: 2nd)
Ohio State (Previous Rank: 3rd)
Nebraska (Previous Rank: 5th)
Penn State (Previous Rank: 10th)
Rutgers (Previous Rank: 14th)
Yes, Iowa is still No. 1 for me. The non-conference losses showed the team’s flaws, but the ceiling was clear in that Iowa State win, as do the Hawkeye’s dominant wins over Wisconsin and Minnesota.
Indiana is right there at No. 2, and has at the least closed the gap significantly. The Tennessee and North Carolina wins were great, but the four-point Illinois and nine-point Penn State wins were less so. I want to see the Hoosiers dominate a conference opponent before they get the top spot.
Ohio State is similar to the Hoosiers in both undefeated record and merely OK conference play results. The Buckeyes are also far less explosive without Jacy Sheldon, who was last seen in a boot. Without her, third place is likely Ohio State’s ceiling.
Nebraska had a rough start to the season, but has slowly earned back my trust by bulldozing both Maryland and Wisconsin by a combined 51 points. The difference is clear: Jaz Shelley. Shelley has scored 26.8 PPG in Nebraska’s last four wins, and she averaged 9.0 PPG in the three defeats. She is the star, and she’s starting to really play like it.
Penn State, I see the promise, I really do. But the Nittany Lions also went 0-2 in Big Ten play, both narrow defeats. I still think this team could click in a big way, so I’m not ready to move them yet.
Rutgers is as expected because Rutgers is the worst team in the Big Ten. What we do love to see is that all eight players have played all 12 games so far. A single injury could be a very bad thing for such a small roster.
What To Watch
I’ll be honest friends, this is not a very good slate of games. Not a ton of must-see entertainment, but there are a few intriguing matchups worth noting.
Wisconsin @ Green Bay, 12/14, 8 p.m., ESPN+
It was a strong start to the year for the Badgers, but the losses have started to pile up. The Badgers travel with an opportunity to shift the tide, taking on a solid Green Bay team that has started the year strong.
Rutgers vs. Princeton, 12/15, 7 p.m., B1G+
As stated many times, Rutgers is in a rebuild, but there’s a big chance for a statement win this week with the Scarlet Knights hosting a Princeton team that made the NCAA Tournament last season.
Northwestern vs. Air Force, 12/17, 7 p.m., B1G+
Northwestern needs a quality victory bad, and while Air Force is no juggernaut by any stretch, it would be the Wildcats’ best win of the year. This one should stay low scoring, which could play to Northwestern’s strengths.
Illinois @ Missouri, 12/18, 5 p.m., SEC Network
This is my favorite matchup of the week. Illinois has been playing miles above expectations, but mostly with wins against inferior competition. This is an 11-1 Missouri team holding opponents to 53.0 PPG while playing extremely efficient basketball. This is a great benchmark test to see where the Illini hype should be.
Feature photo credit: Iowa Athletics
If you are interested in more Big Ten women’s basketball content like this, you can subscribe with the button at the top or bottom of the post, or share it with the button below. Thanks!