Hoopla Tournament Preview: The Lower Seeds
Talking the 9- and 10-seeds in the NCAA Tournament, plus the WBIT and WNIT
Friends, we have a bracket. In fact, we have three brackets, and I want to make sure I talk about all of them this year.
Because of that, I’m splitting tournament talk into two parts. This post will be about the five teams in the WNIT and WBIT — Illinois, Minnesota, Penn State, Purdue, and Wisconsin — as well as the three Big Ten teams that are NCAA Tournament underdogs by seeding — Michigan State, Maryland, and Michigan.
Here, I’ll look at potential tournament routes, team strengths and weaknesses, and give a prediction for how far each team can go.
Women’s Basketball Invitational Tournament (WBIT) Bracket
Women’s National Invitation Tournament (WNIT) Teams
Last Week’s Hoopla:
The Hoopla Groupla Tournament Challenge Returns
Before I get into everything said above… I invite you all to JOIN MY WOMEN’S TOURNAMENT CHALLENGE. We are back with another Hoopla Groupla, with the group name being “The Hoopla Groupla 2024” in ESPN’s Tournament Challenge, in case that link gives any issues.
The prize in year’s past has been that anybody who finishes better than me in the group — both in the overall standings and in properly selecting where Big Ten teams fall — will be shouted out in a future Hoopla. It has looked something like this, and we will be keeping this as a reward for you and a punishment for me.
But I am very excited to announce we will have a few more prizes to give out this year. Second and third place in this year’s group will win gift cards to Homefield, a collegiate apparel website that I love dearly. They have apparel for every Big Ten school, and second and third will win $20 and $10 gift cards, respectively.
For first place? A free Homefield shirt of your choosing. And while I’d love to say it has to be a Big Ten shirt to stay on brand, I won’t hold you to that.
So, make sure you enter my group and make your bracket name something SAFE FOR WORK that I can read out in a Hoopla if you beat me. And hey, maybe you’ll win a gift card or even a whole dang shirt. Let’s ride.
Maryland
NCAA Tournament 10-seed
Portland 4 Region
Matchup: vs. No. 7 Iowa State, 3/22, 7:30 p.m.
Yes, we will get to a pair of Michigan teams with better seeding than these Terps. But, I think if any of these three teams has a best chance at winning more than one game, it would have to be Maryland.
Strengths
The Terrapins struggled at a few points this season, but started to find their rhythm at the right time in the season. Before falling to Nebraska in the Big Ten Tournament, they had not lost to a team other than Indiana, Iowa or Ohio State since January. They are 7-3 in their last 10 games, including a dominant victory over the Buckeyes in the conference tourney.
All of this is to say that these Terps are battle tested: Their opponents average 101.9 points per 100 possessions this season, most of any team in the country. Maryland’s offense has really found a groove, with a big three of Shyanne Sellers, Bri McDaniel and Jakia Brown-Turner that is as versatile as any trio in the country.
Sellers (15.5 PPG/5.8 RPG/5.5 APG) was free from a knee brace in the Big Ten Tournament and looked the part, especially in a 25-point, 8-rebound, 7-assist effort against Ohio State. If Maryland can get that type of output from the All-Big Ten guard, it opens up everything for players like Brinae Alexander (9.3 PPG, 39.1 3PT%), who is a serious X-factor with her shooting.
Sellers’ big game helped cover up a tough performance for McDaniel, who has had a terrific season on the whole (12.7 PPG/1.7 SPG/39.3 3PT%). She was 0 for 10 against the Buckeyes, then fouled out in 16 minutes against Nebraska. She’s such a energizer for this team when on, and the Terps really feed on her energy on both sides of the floor.
Finally, Brown-Turner (13.8 PPG/6.5 RPG), who is as rock solid as they come. She has three years and eight games of tourney experience from NC State, and two of her three highest scoring performances this season came against Iowa and Indiana, so she’s not afraid of the moment.
As a team, Maryland runs a very efficient attack, with solid shooting numbers all over the floor. Despite mostly playing without a true center, the Terps' have solid all-around size and have maintained a solid rebounding rate (51.7%, 103rd in NCAA). They also get to the line a lot and score on those attempts a lot: Maryland is fourth in the NCAA with 509 free throw makes, and 39th with a 76.7% percentage.
Weaknesses
Through no fault of their own, depth. Maryland has had three season-ending injuries happen this season, and that has resulted in a six- or seven-player rotation taking over.
That makes foul trouble a significant concern for this team, which is troubling when two of the Terrapin stars — Sellers and McDaniel — are in the bottom 10 percentile nationally in fouls per game, both averaging 2.8. Maryland simply can’t afford to lose one or both of those players for significant lapses of the game.
The Terrapins shoot the three ball efficiently, but they don’t shoot it much overall. Maryland shoots 35.7% from three, 28th in the nation, but only shoots threes on 21.4% of its scoring attempts, 329th in the nation. That can make it harder for the Terps to keep a big lead or come back from a larger deficit.
Tournament Path
Iowa State’s season mirrors Maryland’s in an eerie amount of ways. The Cyclones started the season 2-3, had a terrible stretch in January, but have rebounded nicely and are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
The major concern here for Maryland is the interior. Iowa State was 11th in the nation with a 55.9% rebound rate. The Cyclones are specifically excellent at defensive rebounds, ranking third with a 77.1% rate. This is thanks to the freshman duo of Audi Crooks (18.9 PPG/7.7 RPG) and Addy Brown (13.1 PPG/8.3 RPG/4.9 APG), who have been fantastic all year.
Brown and Crooks don’t have a massive height advantage over Maryland, but they have both been tenacious all year, and Crooks especially has shown the ability to take over games for Iowa State when needed, ending the year with four straight games of 22+ points.
This is not an easy matchup for Maryland, but it’s certainly a winnable one and will take the Terps finding a way to keep Crooks and Brown contained. If they succeed, Maryland likely faces Stanford in the next round, though I’m not going to fully count out Norfolk State making that interesting.
The Cardinal probably should be a 1-seed, but I do think of the lower-seeded Big Ten teams, this is the best chance for an upset. Cameron Brink (17.8 PPG/11.9 RPG/3.5 BPG) is a matchup nightmare for anyone, but maybe Maryland can space the floor, force Stanford to speed up from its typical slow pace and cause some issues. I wouldn’t predict an upset here, but compared to the other options we will get to, I think there’s more of a realistic path to the Sweet 16.
Can Maryland get past Iowa State though? I think it’ll be an excellent game, but I will rely on the Terps experience to make the difference and at least get to the next round.
Prediction: Round of 32
Michigan
NCAA Tournament 9-seed
Portland 3 Region
Matchup: vs. No. 8 Kansas, 3/23, 2 p.m.
The next best draw went to the Wolverines, who get a somewhat favorable first-round matchup and a not-South Carolina 1-seed likely awaiting in the next round.
Strengths
The Wolverines are strong perimeter shooters, ranking 37th in the NCAA in three-point percentage (35.3%). They also aren’t afraid to let it fly, with 231 made threes on the season, far more than the 195 made all of last season.
Michigan’s very hard to contain because of how well four of its starters shoot it from three. Laila Phelia, Jordan Hobbs, Ellissa Brett and Lauren Hansen all average at least one made three per game, with everyone but Phelia being above 35 percent one efficiency. Hobbs is the most efficient shooter of the bunch, and shot 40.2 percent from three in conference play.
Phelia (16.8 PPG) is the star that can lead the Wolverines to big things. She was massive in Michigan’s upset win over Indiana in the Big Ten Tournament and has the aggressiveness to take over in the critical moments. After a slow start to the year, she really rounded into form in that tournament, breaking 21 points in all three games.
Michigan’s also a strong rebounding team (53.7% rate, 44th in NCAA), and get 4+ rebounds a game from four different players.
Weaknesses
Michigan hates a close game, and this goes both ways. More Wolverines games finished with a margin of 20+ (12) than single digits (seven), though Michigan did go 5-2 in those games.
It felt like weird stuff simply happened in Michigan games: Indiana’s perfect first quarter, beating Illinois on the road by 36 and losing to Toledo by 23 within a few days, outscoring the Hoosiers 48-21 in the second half of the Big Ten Tournament, it’s just hard to understand the Wolverines sometimes.
Teams shot quite well against Michigan this season and averaged 1.04 points per scoring attempt, which was 304th in the NCAA. Part of that is being in the Big Ten, and Michigan’s defensive rating is 51st on Her Hoop Stats, but there’s not a defensive shooting stat the Wolverines excelled in.
The Wolverines also were bottom half in the NCAA in both steals and blocks per game. Teams still turned it over 16.7 times per game against them (108th in NCAA), but Michigan didn’t force the action as much as other top defensive teams.
Tournament Path
Kansas runs a typically efficient offense that gets well-rounded scoring from its entire starting five, with all five players averaging between 9.6 and 15.2 PPG.
At the top of that list is Taiyanna Jackson (15.2 PPG/9.8 RPG/3.1 BPG), an honorable mention for All-American who is a monster defensively while also bringing in over three offensive rebounds per game. Interestingly, despite Jackson’s dominance, Kansas is actually a lackluster rebounding team overall (48.5% rate, 241st in NCAA).
The Jayhawks are happy to slow the pace down in games and grind out wins, which they have done against a very difficult schedule this season. Containing Jackson will be a challenge, but Michigan should have the tools to still win on the glass and find a way to win this.
That would lead to a matchup with the Trojans, and I do struggle to see a path to a Michigan win here. JuJu Watkins is an all-level scorer who would have to be ice cold for the Wolverines to have a chance, but even so, USC is more than one player, and are actually well-rounded in the team metrics. Michigan has found lightning in a bottle at times this season, but it would take quite an effort to get to the second weekend.
Prediction: Round of 32
Michigan State
NCAA Tournament 9-seed
Albany 1 Region
Matchup vs. No. 8 North Carolina, 3/22, 11:30 a.m.
The poor Spartans have been put in South Carolina jail. The Tar Heels are no easy matchup, but even with a win there, Michigan State would get the Gamecocks in the following round, and that is very unfortunate for a team that I think deserved a better seed than this anyway.
Strengths
Michigan State has one of the best offenses in the country, point blank period.
The Spartans are sixth nationally with 83.7 PPG, fifth with a 55.7 effective field goal percentage and third with 1.00 points per play. The offense moves so freely and consistently gets open looks for its numerous knockdown shooters.
Seven Spartans average at least 22 minutes per game, and all seven shoot 42.6% from the field or better. Six of them hit over half of their shots from two, and two players — Moira Joiner and DeeDee Hagemann — hit over 41 percent of their three attempts.
Joiner (14.7 PPG) is a tremendous shooter from all over the floor and has been fully unlocked in Robyn Fralick’s offensive scheme. Hagemann (12.4 PPG/5.1 APG) is a great scorer and even better facilitator, boasting one of the best assist-to-turnover ratios in the country.
Those two are joined by First-Team All-Big Ten forward Julia Ayrault to make a mighty big three. Ayrault (15.4 PPG/7.2 RPG/2.1 BPG) has been unbelievable for Michigan State all season. She’s a solid three-point shooter and an even better finisher inside, while also being an elite rim protector and overall defender.
This team has weapons on weapons offensively, and they know how to get each other open. Michigan State’s 19.0 assists per game is eighth in the country, and its 1.62 assist-to-turnover ratio is second. Defensively, the Spartans are top 60 in steals and are mostly solid on the back end, which is all they have needed to be with so much going for the offense.
Weaknesses
Michigan State has consistently handled lesser competition all season. It has also consistently not been able to beat an elite team. The Spartans have gotten oh so close on more than one occasion, but they are 0-6 against Indiana, Iowa, Nebraska and Ohio State on the year.
That’s really the big flaw, because it’s hard to poke holes at much specifically that Michigan State does this season. The team’s rebound rate is 50.0%, which is the definition of average. The Spartans don’t get to the free throw line very frequently and don’t collect offensive rebounds at a solid rate, but they also don’t let opponents do those things either.
It’s really about getting over the hump with this team. They are so rock solid in so many ways, but that has not led to big wins this year.
Tournament Path
The Tar Heels are led by a veteran trio of Deja Kelly, Alyssa Utsby and Lexi Donarski, all of which are seniors and all of which play more than 33 minutes per game.
Kelly (16.7 PPG) is the team’s leading scorer, and while somewhat inefficient, she’s also a solid playmaker (3.3 APG) and is never afraid to go for a shot. Donarski came over from Iowa State and has given UNC solid production (10.8 PPG, 71 threes made).
Utsby (12.4 PPG/9.3 RPG/3.6 APG/1.7 SPG/1.3 BPG) is a do-it-all wing for the Heels that will cause issues all over the floor. She also has more fouls (105) that nearly any other player in the country.
North Carolina is a good team, and nearly took down Ohio State in last year’s tournament, but I think it’s hard to argue Michigan State here, even as the lower seed. Again, I thought the Spartans deserved better than this placement, and I would have them favored here.
I apologize to Michigan State fans, but there’s just not a feasible discussion to be had against South Carolina. This team is a juggernaut, and I don’t think Michigan State is a strong enough team defensively or on the glass to give the Gamecocks a real fight.
Prediction: Round of 32
That’s right, I am going for an undefeated first round for the Big Ten in the NCAA Tournament. Am I a homer? Maybe, but I do believe the matchups worked out favorably to make that happen.
Now, let’s look at the other postseason tournaments at play for the conference:
WBIT
Penn State — 1-seed vs. George Mason
The Nittany Lions missed out on the NCAA Tournament, but get a top seed in the new WBIT with a real chance at some hardware. Immediately, I think George Mason is a tough matchup, as the Patriots are a very strong defensive unit that can force turnovers and fluster their opponents.
Penn State has the talent to advance here, and could get a few more tricky mid-majors the following round. I think the key to the Nittany Lions making a run is consistency, because the talent on this roster is evident.
If Penn State can properly utilize Ashley Owusu, Makenna Marisa, Shay Ciezki and Leilani Kapinus, those four are talented enough to get this unit far. I think a Mississippi State, Villanova or potentially North Texas could be their toughest foes on the way to getting to the finals.
Illinois — 4-seed vs. Missouri State
Despite the seedings, I think the Illini have the easier matchup out the gates, as the Bears feel beatable defensively, something Illinois can certainly exploit with its high-powered offense.
The Illini have Miami (Fla.) as the 1-seed in their region, and that would certainly be a great matchup the following round. The Hurricanes play slow and are strong defensively, which was much of the success in their NCAA Tournament run the year prior. This is a different Miami roster and it is a beatable one for Illinois, but the Hurricanes were also a projected Big Dance team by many, so they could come in with a chip on their shoulder.
WNIT
Unfortunately, the WNIT bracket was not published as of time writing this, and while I love writing this stuff, I am also on vacation and ran out of patience waiting for it.
That said, I’ll talk a bit about each Big Ten team involved, and how I feel about their chances for a run.
Minnesota — I want to see more of Amaya Battle taking charge. The Gophers looked like it found some rhythm with Battle finding form in the Big Ten Tournament, and the WNIT should give her that opportunity again. This is a valuable postseason for a young group still without its star.
Purdue — Of the three Big Ten teams in this, I think the Boilermakers have the best chance at a deep run. This team is full of veterans playing their final collegiate games, and Purdue’s defensive tenacity makes it a difficult out. If Abbey Ellis and Madison Layden can get going from deep, I really like Purdue’s chances.
Wisconsin — The Badgers get postseason play! This is a great opportunity for Serah Williams and this team filled with underclassmen talent to show what they are capable of. Williams will need to be dominant for Wisconsin to advance, but she’s certainly shown the ability to do exactly that.
Photo Credit: Maryland Women’s Basketball (@TerpsWBB), Twitter/X
See you back here tomorrow for Part 2 of the tournament preview. <3