2022-23 Big Ten Women's Basketball Preview: Indiana
The Hoosiers lost key vets, but could they come back even stronger?
Rutgers check: Still at eight players!!! It is the middle of September!!!!! On to my predicted runner-up we go.
Last week’s preview:
The Indiana women’s basketball program had higher expectations than ever before last season. Fresh off the program’s first ever Sweet 16 and Elite Eight appearances, the Hoosiers brought back their entire starting five to run it back.
And, for the most part, head coach Teri Moren got one more successful season out of them.
Indiana was a great all-around team that played extremely efficient basketball, shooting well from all phases of the game while turning it over just 13.0 times per game, 33rd-fewest in the country.
Despite shooting less threes than the average team (485 attempts ranked 285th nationally), the Hoosiers made the most of their offensive opportunities, getting to the line a significant amount and converting on a rock solid 74.7 percent of attempts from the stripe.
All of this led to 0.89 points per play which ranked 23rd in Division-I. Indiana was also the best defensive team in the Big Ten, playing one of the hardest schedules in the country (opponent’s 62.5 win percentage ranked fourth-highest) and still managing to hold opponents to mediocre scoring and shooting numbers.
There were very few weaknesses on this Indiana team when it was at full strength, and the Hoosiers were able to capitalize on this. They went to their second consecutive, and second ever, Sweet 16 before falling to the mighty UConn Huskies. There are worse fates than losing to UConn in the second weekend, even if Indiana didn’t quite reach the same heights as the year prior.
But the 2021-22 Indiana team featured five upperclassmen starters, and that group combined for 5,259 of the team’s 6,649 minutes played. That group accounted for 2,060 of the team’s 2,353 points. That is 79.1 percent of the team’s minutes and 87.5 percent (!) of the team’s points.
Now, 60 percent of that starting lineup is gone, but there’s reason to think Indiana can not only stay at the same level, but get even better.
First, the departures of Nicole Cardano-Hillary, Aleksa Gulbe and Ali Patberg. Each of these players were absolutely crucial in getting the Indiana program where it currently is, and their contributions will be hard to match. Cardano-Hillary was an excellent point guard and a complete menace defensively. Gulbe was a stretch four who was always a consistent scorer. Patberg was the heart and soul of the Hoosiers, and was a reliable scorer and playmaker throughout all of her many years on the team.
That is a tough trio to replace, but at least Patberg is back as a team and recruitment coordinator. The two returnees from that starting five, however, may have been the most important.
First, Grace Berger, one of the best all-around players in the country. Berger is a mid-range specialist who, time and time again, can be relied on for gigantic buckets, whether it be a half-court heave or a game-winner in the final seconds.
Her stats (16.2 PPG/6.2 RPG/4.7 APG/1.4 SPG) were superb last year, and without Patberg or Cardano-Hillary, she should be the team’s primary facilitator on offense.
Next, Mackenzie Holmes, who was a true Big Ten Player of the Year candidate for the first half of the season. Holmes is one of my favorite players in the conference, an absolute delight to watch on the offensive end. Holmes finished last season with 0.37 win shares per 40 minutes, 40th best among 3,303 Division I players. She had some monstrous performances in huge games early on for the Hoosiers, including:
29 points (11/15 FG), 7 rebounds, 2 steals vs. Kentucky
24 points (9/14 FG), 4 rebounds vs. NC State
30 points (13/19 FG), 7 rebounds, 5 blocks vs. Ohio State
15 points (7/10 FG), 14 rebounds vs. Maryland
A mid-season injury limited Holmes in the second half of the season, but she still finished with 15.2 PPG, 7.0 RPG and 1.7 BPG on 60.0-percent shooting. She also hit 6 of her 15 three attempts (40 percent). Holmes is so, so good and could have an All-American level season with the roster Indiana has assembled.
Speaking of. Berger and Holmes are the main returnees, and Moren did a superb job at bringing in talent through the portal. All three transfer additions should play immediate major roles, and could fix the few issues the Hoosiers faced last season.
Screw saving the best for last, Sara Scalia is the top get by any Big Ten team this year if you ask me. She comes from in-conference foe Minnesota after a breakout junior campaign where she lead the Gophers in scoring. Scalia was the no-doubt primary scorer for Minnesota every night, and she still managed to shoot the three with remarkable efficiency on insanely high volume. Pairing her with Berger, who does most of her work inside, is a match made in heaven.
Three-point shooting wasn’t a weakness for Indiana last season, but it definitely wasn’t a strength, so adding both Scalia and Sydney Parrish is massive. Parrish started all 31 games for the Ducks last season and put up some pretty strong numbers, including 50 makes from deep.
Parrish is a former five-star, top 10 recruit who is now back in her home state, and Oregon transfers have loved the Big Ten in recent memory. Both Ohio State’s Taylor Mikesell and Nebraska’s Jaz Shelley went from good to outstanding in the move last season, with both landing on All-Big Ten teams. Parrish has the potential to do the same.
Finally, Indiana got Holmes some help inside with Alyssa Geary, who was asked to do a lot on some very not good Providence teams. I think Geary could really shine as a complimentary piece on a talented roster like this one, and her size could help take some pressure off Holmes on the defensive side of the ball.
These are huge gets, and they are joining more than just Berger and Holmes. Chloe Moore-McNeil (5.2 PPG, 42.6 FG%) was the first player off the bench last year and helped out with some needed complimentary scoring, especially during the heart of the Big Ten slate. Her and Kiandra Browne (2.9 PPG, 3.2 RPG) were the two major contributors outside of the starting five and should see larger roles as upperclassmen.
Moren also did well with her recruiting class, which seems to have players ready to make an impact on day one. Lexus Bargesser was the prize of the class as a four-star prospect who averaged 23.6 PPG/8.1 RPG/3.8 APG/3.8 SPG in her junior season. A torn MCL/ACL stopped her senior campaign, but her talent gives her an opportunity to see some major minutes, even if it’s off the bench.
Both Yanden Garzon and Henna Sandvik excite me as international prospects. Garzon was a sharpshooter and has loads of professional experience on national teams. Sandvik has similar experience in Finland and both could have a leg-up on typical first-years because of it. Garzon’s shooting numbers make me think she could see some large volume for Moren’s team.
Finally, Lilly Meister was dominant in high school and gives the Hoosiers another option inside. If Holmes’ three-point ability is to be believed, Meister could be a nice pairing inside.
Outlook
Indiana lost three cornerstones of the program and potentially improved its talent level. Berger and Holmes are true stars who gained a significant amount of talent, specifically improving the shooting talent.
Even when the Hoosiers were at their best, the offense could feel a little stagnant through isolations. This roster could make Indiana an elite offensive power, with excellent scorers in all phases of the game. Berger and Holmes will only benefit from Scalia and Parrish being on the outside, and it’s scary to think about Scalia being a team’s third option offensively. If Parrish can have even close to a type of transition that Mikesell or Shelley just had from Oregon, this offense has four of the best weapons in the conference.
I am curious what Moren decides to do with her starting lineup. The four I just mentioned should be no-brainers, but will the Hoosiers go smaller with Moore-McNeil or, potentially, Bargesser at point guard, or will they use Geary inside with Holmes. I think Berger will take point guard responsibilities regardless, but Indiana has more options than before on what it wants to look like.
Either way, this is another Hoosiers roster that should be very, very, very good. A third straight Sweet 16 is there for the taking, as is a second Elite Eight in three years. Indiana has been such a fun team to watch rise from nothing to something, and that rise isn’t over yet.
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I was not sold at all on Indiana coming into this preview, but I am much more convinced now. Still very concerned about how the losses of Gulbe and NCH will affect the defense, especially given that Scalia and Parrish don't have much of a track record in that regard, but a potentially significantly improved offense sure might help mitigate things!