Indiana's Efficiency Explosion
Plus Caitlin Clark's usage and how Iowa is still winning because of it
For those who did not see, I posted my midseason update for the Hoopla 40 on Thursday. It ranks the top 40 players in the conference with my thoughts on each player listed below.
Indiana had a conference-high five players on that list. As it turns out, that’s a good segue for what I’m about to talk about.
The Hoopla 40:
Two games into Indiana’s season, it appeared we already saw something significant that could define the rest of what the Hoosiers do in 2023-24. At the time, that thing we saw was Stanford beating Indiana in dominant fashion 96-64. It raised a lot of questions about expectations for what had been the Big Ten’s best team last regular season.
Looking back on what Indiana has done since Nov. 12, I think I was right to define Indiana’s season on one of those first two games. I was just looking at the wrong one.
The Hoosiers’ won their season opener against Eastern Illinois 96-43. Indiana shot incredibly well from the field — 65.2% overall, in fact — well over an arbitrary percentage of, oh I don’t know, 57.7%. Indiana shot this well even with 22 three-point attempts.
Why do I bring this up? Well, this shooting effort no longer feels like an anomaly, because Indiana has decided it’s time to make all of the shots. Like all of them.
Indiana is the top team in the NCAA with a 52.1% field goal percentage. The Hoosiers have shot over 50% in each of its last five games, and over 57.7% in three of their last five. In each of those three 57.7%+ games, Indiana attempted at least 16 three-pointers.
These type of games do not come easy. In fact, there are only 53 such games this season with a team shooting at least 57.7% overall with at least 16 threes attempted. Four of them are Indiana, and three of them have come since Dec. 18. The Hoosiers are tied with Iowa with the most of these games this season.
Stat picking aside, there’s something that separates Indiana’s hot streak of games with Iowa’s four games of this magnitude: The Hoosiers did two of these games against Michigan and at Nebraska, with the Wolverines being an excellent defensive team and the Cornhuskers being a good one and at home. They also had those two showings in back-to-back games.
The Michigan win started all of this, with Indiana bolstering a perfect 13-for-13 first quarter, eventually taking until shot No. 16 to miss in what ended up being a comfortable Hoosiers victory. They followed that up with the Nebraska game, where Indiana shot 60.7% overall and 60.9% from three to win big in Lincoln.
Just like that, Indiana is 13-1 and playing like a top 10 team in the country. Mackenzie Holmes has been at peak form in recent games, scoring 42 points on 17-of-24 (70.8%) shooting in those two wins over the Wolverines and Cornhuskers. Sara Scalia (35 combined points, 9 combined threes made) has also been extremely consistent, but a return to form for Sydney Parrish has been the key in Indiana looking truly dangerous.
Parrish — who I had dropped to No. 32 in the Hoopla 40 — has ignited:
Sydney Parrish, first 12 games: 11.2 PPG / 36.7 FG% / 29.1 3PT%
Parrish, last 2 games: 17.0 PPG / 70.6 FG% / 81.8 3PT%
With Parrish shooting like this, or even close to like this, Indiana’s offense becomes nearly unguardable. Adding her improved shooting to a lineup that already includes not one, not two, but three players hitting above 40 percent from three, all along with one of the most dominant post players in the country makes the Hoosiers a true, outrageous force. It mirrors a lot of what Iowa had done in previous years, speaking of!
The More-Clark-Than-Ever Offense
Caitlin Clark has been the focal point of what Iowa has done offensively since she has arrived on campus, no doubt about it. But before this year, the Hawkeyes felt more able to rely on other players at times, namely Monika Czinano and McKenna Warnock, both of whom departed after last year’s championship run.
This version of Iowa is still great, clearly: The Hawkeyes are 15-1 and still ranked in the top five of the AP Poll. But it certainly feels different, namely, that even more of the weight has been on Clark’s shoulders to make an otherworldly impact every game.
Caitlin Clark’s Usage, Last 2 Seasons (22-23 → 23-24 stats):
Field Goal Attempts: 18.8 → 22.3 FGA
% of team’s FGA: 30.8 → 34.1%
Points Per Game: 27.8 → 31.3 PPG
% of team’s points: 31.8 → 34.6%
Usage Percentage (% of FGAs, FTs, TOs by Clark when on floor): 36.4 → 40.5%
Assist Rate (% of team’s makes assisted by Clark): 49.5 → 48.4%
In almost every statistic, it shows that Clark is being asked to do more than she did last season, except for a minor decrease in assist rate. She scores over a third of her team’s points, takes over a third of the team’s shots and still assists nearly half of her team’s field goals.
This doesn’t feel sustainable, but it’s hard for me to say that considering who I’m dealing with here. Is Caitlin Clark showing any sign of this not working long term? We will only know that answer if she is forced to do it throughout the rest of the season, but for now, what if I showed you this:
Caitlin Clark’s Efficiency, Last 2 Seasons (22-23 → 23-24 stats):
Field Goal Percentage: 47.3 → 48.5%
Three-Point Percentage: 38.9 → 39.9%
Turnovers Per Game: 4.2 → 4.1
Turnover Percentage: 15.7 → 14.2%
Points Per Play (points per FGA, FTA, TO): 1.05 → 1.08
Clark is being asked to do more than ever, and she is improving her efficiency in most areas. Yes, there are games where it feels like Clark is taking too many deep shots, but on the whole, she does that because it works in the long run for her and her team.
Iowa has not been a one-player team, and Kate Martin, Hannah Stuelke and Sydney Affolter have specifically stepped up well into their roles to keep the Hawkeyes moving. But Clark has been more of the No. 1 than ever before, and she is still not showing signs of being burdened by it.
With Clark’s insane ability to stay efficient and Indiana’s new rise to outrageous scoring prowess, I can’t wait to see these two teams facing off.
Could I really go 3/3 on perfect segues here? Folks!!!
What to Watch
**INDIANA AT IOWA, 1/13 (SATURDAY), 8 P.M., FOX**
Things can always change in the Big Ten, but for right now, these two teams have separated themselves from the pack, and the first of two regular season showdowns between them is on Saturday night.
As said above, Indiana has played its best basketball recently and is more versatile offensively. But Iowa has Clark, and Clark’s heroics have gotten the Hawkeyes past the Hoosiers before. The Mackenzie Holmes-Hannah Stuelke matchup inside could be the X-Factor in deciding this, but don’t let the NFL Playoffs get in the way of this absolute banger matchup.
Maryland at Michigan State, 1/9 (Tuesday), 6 p.m., BTN
Earlier in the week, we get another excellent showdown that should have some offensive fireworks. The Terrapins are rounding into form while the Spartans continue to impress. I am very intrigued to see how these two teams match up.
Minnesota at Michigan, 1/9 (Tuesday), 8 p.m., BTN
Tuesday’s two-game slate is all heat. Minnesota has lost two straight against strong opponents, and heads into Ann Arbor against a Michigan team that has had some big wins, but most recently lost big to Indiana. This is a big win for momentum, and to see where each team sits in the conference.
Northwestern at Wisconsin, 1/10 (Wednesday), 7:30 p.m., B1G+
The Wildcats head to Madison searching for a spark after back-to-back blowout losses, but this is not the Wisconsin team of old, it appears. The Badgers just took down Illinois and have a great chance to get an in-conference winning streak going here.
Nebraska at Minnesota, 1/14 (Sunday), 3 p.m., B1G+
Minnesota has a big week ahead. The Gophers will get a Nebraska team that has teetered with greatness this season. Both of these teams play very fun basketball, and its another huge momentum builder game for one of these teams.
Michigan State at Ohio State, 1/14 (Sunday), 4 p.m., BTN
The Buckeyes have shown vulnerability recently, and Michigan State could end this week with a huge road victory if the Spartans can capitalize. This one could be high flying all game, and maybe this is the game where Cotie McMahon rises to her form from the end of last season?
Feature Photo Credit: Indiana Women’s Basketball, Twitter/X
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