2023-24 Big Ten Women's Basketball Preview: Iowa
Do the national runner-ups have enough firepower to run it back?
We are here. The final preview of the offseason.
After talking about 13 teams, all of which have their own very exciting storylines and expectations, we have reached the (projected) mountain top. Let’s finally talk about my preseason No. 1.
Last Week’s Preview:
Overview
Let’s start with the obvious: Iowa’s 2022-23 season was nothing short of spectacular.
After three early losses in the non-conference slate, the Hawkeyes got rolling in Big Ten play, only losing three more contests heading into the conference tourney.
There, Iowa really started to get it rolling, winning tight battles against Purdue and Maryland before completely blowing out Ohio State to win the Big Ten tournament for the second straight season.
That momentum continued into the NCAA Tournament, where the Hawkeyes dominated Southeastern Louisiana, battled out victories against Georgia and Colorado, then won convincingly against a talented Louisville team.
Then, of course, the big one: A 77-73 stunner over No. 1 overall seed South Carolina in the Final Four.
Iowa’s first ever run to the national championship did not end with the program’s first ever title, with LSU taking the Hawkeyes down. But man, what a run.
Head coach Lisa Bluder led one of the nation’s best teams thanks entirely to its offense, which could not be stopped much at all last season. The Hawkeyes scored over three whole points more per game than anybody in the country, and were the only team to shoot over 50 percent from the field. Iowa did this by shooting nearly 60 percent (!!!) from inside the arc.
The outrageously good interior shooting was met with extreme efficiency from the outside, all of this helped by a nation-leading 20.9 assists per game. Iowa’s 1.02 points per play was, and you won’t believe this, best in the country, and their 1.46 assist-to-turnover ratio was fourth-best.
Finding an offensive stat that Iowa wasn’t top 10 in is difficult, and it meant the defense simply had to be good enough to get this team to 31 wins.
I wonder if the Hawkeyes had a certain player that stood out throughout all of this?
Departures
Here’s last year’s Iowa roster, sorted by Her Hoop Stats win shares:
Only three players exit after last year’s historic run, but two of them are significant.
Monika Czinano has been one of the best interior scorers in the country throughout her time with the Hawkeyes, and that level of consistency will be hard to replicate. Her 17.1 PPG was top 100 in the nation, and her field goal percentage ranked seventh, both of which were huge to getting Iowa through to the finals.
I’ve sung McKenna Warnock’s praises repeatedly on Hoopla, but I will do it again here. It is hard to find a forward that did everything Warnock did for the Hawkeyes in her time there, and she will be the hardest piece to directly replace this season, in my opinion. Warnock was a solid defender, a great rebounder and an excellent scorer everywhere on the floor. She was able to space out opposing defenses, allowing more success for Czinano inside while being a great threat to score herself.
Warnock’s skillset is rare, and I’m curious to see how Iowa adapts without her in the lineup.
Shateah Wetering is Iowa’s lone transfer out. She wasn’t able to find a large role with the Hawkeyes through her two years there, but appeared willing to shoot the three ball in limited action.
Returnees
Where do I even start with Caitlin Clark?
The former five-star electrified from day one with the Hawkeyes, showing off outrageous range, electric playmaking and a knack for the spectacular as a true freshman. She hit a slight sophomore slump, came out of it with a Big Ten tournament title, then struggled again in the Round of 32 to go home early. The narrative at that time was that Clark struggled to show up when it mattered most.
So what did she do as a junior? The National Player of the Year set that narrative on fire.
Across six NCAA Tournament games, Clark averaged:
31.8 PPG
5.2 RPG
10.0 APG
1.8 SPG
48.8 FG%
42.7 3PT%
88.1 FT%
She finished her tournament run with four straight 30-point performances, including a pair of 41-point games against Louisville and South Carolina. It was one of the most impressive tournament runs by a single player of all-time, if you ask me.
These stats, along with the style Clark plays, has made her the most known name in women’s college basketball, maybe even all of college basketball. It’s been incredible to see, and it means that everything her, and Iowa, does this season will be given a whole lot of attention.
For as great as Clark is, she is losing two huge co-stars this season, which means other returning faces will have to step up. Getting both Kate Martin and Gabbie Marshall backfire their super senior seasons was massive for the Hawkeyes, as both have been key role players throughout this run of success.
Martin and Marshall are both great all-around weapons as solid defensive players who can hit the three ball. Martin has also thrived as a secondary playmaker, while Marshall has had a knack for hitting the big shots at the right times. Both of their numbers could rise significantly this season as the most experienced options on the roster.
Czinano’s successor is most likely to be Hannah Stuelke, who showed flashes of excellence in her first collegiate season. The reigning Sixth Player of the Year in the Big Ten shot well and scored in bunches during limited minutes all season, and I think she brings a bit more intensity as a rebounder and defender compared to Czinano. Stuelke was also a poor free throw shooter (45.0%) and had some foul issues which would come into play with a larger role, but both feel easily solvable as she gets more experience under her belt.
The other option inside is Addison O’Grady, who is entering her third year and has also impressed off the bench. Both O’Grady and Stuelke will likely see a minutes increase, but having that inside weapon to work with Clark, Martin and Marshall will be critical to Iowa’s offense remaining as elite as it has been.
I’ll be curious to see if O’Grady and Stuelke both start with Warnock also gone, but it would make more sense to see Iowa bring in another three-point weapon instead. Molly Davis would make the Hawkeyes much, much smaller, but she was an excellent scorer at Central Michigan and could be elevated. I could also see Taylor McCabe getting the spot, as she was quietly excellent as a three-point shooter in 18 games for the Hawkeyes last season.
There’s also Sydney Affolter, who fits Warnock’s archetype as a 5-11 wing who was a great rebounder off the bench last season. Kylie Feuerbach has solid experience from both Iowa and Iowa State, and could return to a prominent role after missing last season with an injury. None of these players bring exactly what Warnock did, but Iowa has a sneaky amount of returning options, all of which Bluder has worked with, which should make life without two key cogs a little easier.
Past Stuelke and O’Grady, Iowa also has AJ Ediger, Sharon Goodman and Jada Gyamfi as forward options. All three chipped in off the bench similarly last season, but the door is now open for any of them to carve out a sizable role behind that duo.
Transfers
None. Bluder apparently felt comfortable enough with the team she has to replace what was lost in house. It’s one of those moves that could backfire in hindsight, but is something I will have to trust for now. Bluder is a great coach, and I’ll choose to believe she is right on that decision until proven otherwise.
Freshmen
Even without Iowa bringing in new faces through the transfer portal, I wouldn’t expect to see a significant amount of game time for either first-year player this season.
Kennise Johnson could have an opportunity as a backup point guard based on her numbers at Example Academy. Standing at just 5-4, I will be hoping to see her get involved, even if it is late in games.
Ava Jones is also not likely to see the court much as a freshman, but not because of anything that was in her control. Jones was severely injured on July 5, 2022 when a car crashed into her and her family while they were walking. The crash killed her father, Trey, and left both Ava and her mother, Amy, in critical condition.
Jones is still recovering from this, but is walking and able to practice. She also scored a basket last season to a large applause. Jones is hoping to one day play for the Hawkeyes, and Iowa has kept Jones on scholarship regardless. She was a terrific high school player, and I hope to get to write about that clear talent some day in the future.
Outlook
Projected Starters
G - Caitlin Clark
G - Gabbie Marshall
G - Kate Martin
G - Sydney Affolter
F - Hannah Stuelke
Projected Big Ten Finish: 1st
The Big Ten is loaded front to back with exceptional women’s basketball talent, and I’ve spent tens of thousands of words talking about all of it over the past few months. Despite that, it is so hard to deny Iowa from this top spot, at least based on what this team proved last year down the stretch.
The last time Iowa played a Big Ten opponent, it won that game by 33, and that opponent went on to beat UConn and make the Elite Eight. Ohio State has gotten better and Iowa, on paper, may have gotten worse, but the Hawkeyes deserve this spot heading into what might be Clark’s final season.
Iowa will be the most talked about team in the nation this year, almost definitely. It could also be LSU or UConn, but Clark has gotten more national attention than any one player, and it will lead to a whole lot of people checking in to see if they can repeat last year’s success. That is a lot of pressure to deal with, and I’m curious if that pressure feels noticeable on the court. But the Hawkeyes felt like they thrived on that expectation last season, and I’m hoping that comes true again.
Clark, Marshall, Martin and Stuelke should all be starters, but what Bluder decides to go with next to them is very intriguing. I think Davis, Feuerbach, McCabe and O’Grady could all be there, and all will be important pieces to the puzzle regardless. But I’m going to lean Affolter for what she’s done as a rebounder, and hope the extra spacing gets her three-point shot going.
For a team that didn’t bring in any transfers, Iowa sure feels deep still, and I’m sure Bluder felt that too. There should be a noticeable level of cohesion when watching this team, and I’m excited to see returning players make a big leap in the same system.
But, of course, all of this has to come back to Clark, whether it is fair or not. This team will go as far as Clark can take them, and she is likely going to break a lot of conference and national records along the way. If this is her last collegiate season, make sure to enjoy it, because players like her do not come around often.
Iowa’s run last year was special in so many ways, and it will take something equally special to get back there. But with a superstar like Clark, and weapons like this Iowa roster still has, it is 100 percent possible. Getting back, and winning it all this time, should be the expectation.
Photo Credit: Iowa Women’s Basketball (@IowaWBB), Twitter/X
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