2022-23 Big Ten Women's Basketball Preview: Maryland
Maryland has once again rebuilt to win in the short-term. Can the Terps keep getting away with this?
Not to be a broken record, but friends, September is here on Thursday and Rutgers still has an eight-player roster. The Scarlet Knights start their season on Nov. 7. Things are looking good over there.
Rutgers used to be one of the powers of this conference so, as I search for a segue, let’s talk about a current mainstay at the top of the Big Ten.
Last week’s preview:
It is hysterical to consider what Maryland did last season — 23 wins and a Sweet 16 appearance — as a down year, but that’s the type of expectations that head coach Brenda Frese has brought to the Terrapins program.
The nine losses Maryland suffered in 2021-22 were the most since the Terps joined the Big Ten in 2014-15. You have to go back to a 21-13 campaign in 2009-10 to see a year as “bad” as this past one. Those two seasons are the only ones with 9+ losses since Frese led Maryland to a national title in 2006.
You don’t win over 500 games with a program in 20 seasons without constant, unrelenting success, and that is what Frese has built in College Park.
I mean look at these stats, just hideous! The offense feel from tops in the nation to fifth??? The analytics don’t even rate the Terps inside the top five?!?!?!?! The HORROR.
Maryland was, once again, dominant offensively, but not quite as dominant as the year prior. That led to more losses because, for the second season in a row, the Terps were bad on defense after eight consecutive prior seasons ranking in the top 100 nationally in defensive rating.
Defensive errors can be overlooked when the team scores 90.8 PPG, but even dropping to a still-incredible 78.8 PPG was enough to show more cracks than the program has seen in over a decade.
But, there are two very easy alibi’s that give reason to think this past Maryland season is more an anomaly than the new norm.
The schedule. All nine of Maryland’s losses were not just to good teams, but to the very best teams in the country. The Terps lost to teams ranked Nos. 1, 2 (twice), 3, 11 (twice), 12 (twice) and 14 in the final AP Poll. Not a single loss came against an opponent outside of the top 15.
The injuries. Maryland never really got to full form thanks to unfortunate injuries to key cogs. Ashley Owusu (27 of 32 games) and Diamond Miller (22) played the majority of the year, but missed big games early on and never seemed at 100 percent even after returning. Only four players on the roster played all 32 games, and that much roster shifting makes it difficult to win regardless of talent.
Maryland’s non-conference schedule this season is still plenty difficult (vs. South Carolina, @ Baylor, vs. UConn), but hopefully this roster that is definitely extremely similar to last year’s will stay healthy so we can find out how much it played a part.
*taps ear* What’s that? The roster is what now?
Ahh.
Eight players on the 2021-22 roster are no longer there, a number that is not super out of the ordinary in the portal era. But, aside from Minnesota and Rutgers, no team lost as significant of contributors as the Terps.
Maryland lost its top four players in win shares, and five of its top seven. Two of these were unavoidable: Katie Benzan and Chloe Bibby played out their eligibility and could not return, but they will very much be missed.
Benzan specifically never got the respect she deserved for how unreal good she was. She was as lockdown a shooter as anyone in the country, was a solid defender and became the team’s primary facilitator over Owusu in 2021-22. Her 130.0 player offensive rating was sixth in the nation out of over 3,300 players in Division I. She was also excellent in her brief WNBA stint and absolutely deserves another chance.
The Mimi Collins departure hurts as well, and she will be great for the Wolfpack, but losing both Owusu and Angel Reese is a borderline disaster. These were two of the most talented players in the Big Ten at their respective peaks, and if both came back I likely have Maryland at No. 1 or 2 in this preseason ranking.
Owusu is such a remarkable offensive presence, a force both as a scorer and a facilitator that can take over a game in an instant. She ranked in the top 21 nationally in her first two collegiate seasons then, out of nowhere, shot 40.6 percent from three as a junior. If she puts all that together, you’re looking at an All-American at Virginia Tech.
Speaking of a future All-American, it would be more surprising if Angel Reese wasn’t one by the time her college career is up. I mean you saw the stats in the graphic above: she averaged 18 and 11 in her first full collegiate season. Now, she gets coached by another all-time great in Kim Mulkey, so those numbers should only go up.
I usually don’t harp on the departures that long but Maryland has to replace A LOT, and yet somehow I still have the Terps in the top four. That’s because no one in the Big Ten reloads like Maryland, and Frese is bringing in four incredible talents to soften the blow.
The highlight of the group is difficult to pick, but I’m most excited to see Princeton star Abby Meyers join the Big Ten. Meyers was exceptional for the Tigers, doing it all on both ends of the floor to finish 19th with 10.1 win shares. Meyers also has no problem with the larger stage, scoring 29 (!) points to help Princeton upset Kentucky in the NCAA Tournament.
From there, the remaining trio each brings important qualities that were lost with all the key departures, and each of them will see ample time coming into the program. Brinae Alexander is a volume shooter that was a pest defensively for Vanderbilt, potentially filling Benzan’s role. Allie Kubek took a big leap in year two for Towson, and is a force on the offensive glass in similar ways to Reese. Pinzan, like Owusu is one of the nation’s best playmakers and could see starting point guard duties immediately.
With all these shift, you might be wondering how many players return from last year’s roster that, for most programs, did extremely well. The answer is five, and it really is more like four.
Diamond Miller - 13.1 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 1.4 SPG
Shyanne Sellers - 7.8 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 1.9 SPG
Faith Masonius - 6.4 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 60.5 FG%
Emma Chardon - 0.9 PPG, 0.6 RPG
Lavender Briggs - 12.5 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 2.6 APG
Two caveats: Masonius played in just nine games and Briggs put up those stats in 14 games for Florida before transferring to the Terps midseason.
The big returners are Miller and Sellers, who are immensely talented and will get even more opportunities to prove it. Miller, like Owusu, never looked quite like herself last season. She still put up perfectly solid numbers and might be one of the safest breakout candidates the conference has ever had.
The same breakout potential exists with Sellers, one of the top freshman performers in the Big Ten in 2021-22. She started just 10 games but made a sizable impact no matter how she was utilized.
There are enough difference makers with game experience that the freshman shouldn’t be asked to do too much for Frese’s squad this season, but last year proved that anything can and will happen to a Maryland program that seems to thrive on the chaos.
Bringing in three top 60 prospects and another three-star for good measure should ease the burden of a depth concern. Cooke is a versatile point guard that filled up the box score with more than scoring in high school, while McDaniel was named to the Illinois all-state first team two separate seasons.
Mila Reynolds (listed as a guard on ESPN) was a big-time scorer in high school, averaging 19 PPG and 9 RPG as a junior. She seems like a versatile wing option that brings great skill and size immediately. Finally, Sciolla was, you guessed it, a great scorer in high school, averaging 17 PPG as a junior.
Outlook
I don’t know how long Maryland can get away with this, but this roster is still so unbelievably talented even with the significant pieces that left through the portal or graduation.
On paper, Maryland looks pretty damn close to as good as it did last season, with a core of Miller-Sellers-Meyers-Alexander-Kubek-Pinzan-Briggs being as good as you will see in the conference, and that’s before bringing in four highly regarded freshmen.
The real question is how well it works together, which is something that is pretty much impossible to predict. Maryland’s core is over 70 percent new faces that have never played a game together, so to try and guess how this group will look early on against the likes of South Carolina and UConn is futile.
I think it’s absolutely possible that the Terps have a similar record to the year they just had, but in a much different way. Maryland is more unpredictable now, and that could lead to some big time wins and really not good losses early on, but if the cogs start to connect and the roster stays healthy, this is not a team I want to see in March.
The Maryland machine had its version of a jam last season, and its answer was to replace two-thirds of the roster. Will it be enough to get past the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2015? The talent amassed here absolutely makes it a possibility.
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Honestly think this might be the most fun Maryland has been in recent memory. Just long, scary, athletic ball-handlers who can shoot all over the floor, can't wait to see them all play together