2024-25 Team Preview: Michigan State
Can the Spartans keep moving up after last year's stunning rise?
It’s been a little since I’ve used this space for a Caitlin Clark update, and dear reader, it appears she’s fully figured out this WNBA thing.
Clark has broken a whole litany of WNBA records in her rookie year, including most points, assists and three-pointers by a first-year player. She also has the most assists in a season by anyone, ever.
I knew Clark would be a special player, absolutely, but I didn’t think she — or the Indiana Fever for that matter — would be there so quickly. The Fever are locked into the playoffs and have been rolling through the second half of the season, while Clark averages 19.5 PPG, 5.7 RPG and 8.4 APG on 41.7/34.1/90/4 shooting splits.
The WNBA postseason is near, and I would absolutely not want to deal with this Fever team if I was one of the higher seeds.
Last Week’s Preview:
Overview
The vibe I got on Michigan State from afar heading into last season was a lot of uncertainty.
This roster, which had mostly underperformed where it should have been in 22-23, was led by a new coach in Robyn Fralick, but had a lot of returning faces that had promising results, but never anything that made the Spartans feel like a significant contender.
That uncertainty quickly changed to hype and excitement under Fralick.
These Spartans were so damn fun in 23-24, leading one of the nation’s best and most efficient offenses through a play style that managed to be both extremely selfless (18.8 assists per game, 7th in NCAA) and careful (11.9 turnovers per game, 9th in NCAA) at the same time.
Michigan State was a top-10 team in the country in two- and three-point percentage, finished third in assist-to-turnover ratio and did it with a core rotation of seven players that gave opponents fits all season.
If the Spartans had an Achilles’ heel, it would be closing out games against top-tier opponents. Of Michigan State’s nine defeats, five of them were by six or less to NCAA Tournament-level teams: UNC by 3, Indiana by 3, Iowa by 3, Ohio State by 5 and Nebraska by 6. The Spartans had a chance to win each of those games, and often held early leads, but just could not get over that hurdle to become a true threat come March.
Despite this, last season was still a roaring, thunderous success for Fralick in her first season, and I thought it deserved a Big Ten Coach of the Year honor. But it also felt like Michigan State had to “settle” for “only” 22 wins in a season that could have been even more incredible.
Here's last year’s Michigan State roster, sorted by Her Hoop Stats win shares:
Departures
Six players from last year’s roster exit, with four leaving through the transfer portal.
Gabby Elliott unfortunately struggled with injuries since arriving in East Lansing, and Lauren Ross and Bree Robinson never broke through into the main rotation. Those exits feel reasonable and I will be intrigued to see how they each fare elsewhere, specifically with Elliott at Penn State.
The other three losses, however, are huge chunks out of what Michigan State managed to accomplish last season, and they will be hard to make up.
Two of these ones — Moira Joiner and Tory Ozment — were unavoidable. Joiner had a career year to finish her tenure with the Spartans, shooting the absolute lights out all season long. She was reasonably close to a 50/40/90 season with 47.2/44.2/86.0 splits, which is something to behold considering the volume of her three-point looks. Ozment was also a huge factor as a spark plug off the bench, and her specific energy and feistiness will be hard to replicate past the box score.
All of these sting in a variety of ways, but losing DeeDee Hagemann in the transfer portal was a real tough blow. In one season under Fralick, Hagemann went from shooting 39.5% from the field and 30.3% from deep to 51.5% and 41.0%, respectively. She had a top-15 assist-to-turnover ratio in the country, and maybe most importantly to me, played with such a level of swagger that was so fun to watch. I will miss her, and so will the Spartans.
Returning Players
Julia Ayrault missed the entirety of the 2021-22 season with a foot injury. She came back and was a small piece of Michigan State’s rotation in 2022-23. Then, 2023-24 happened:
Points Per Game: 3.6 → 15.4
Rebounds Per Game: 2.5 → 7.3
Assists Per Game: 0.5 → 2.3
Steals Per Game: 0.5 → 1.3
Blocks Per Game: 0.6 → 2.1
Field Goal Percentage: 38.1 → 50.8
Three-Point Percentage: 29.8 → 34.8
Free Throw Percentage: 50.0 → 75.7
Win Shares: 1.0 (1994th in the nation) → 4.3 (74th in the nation)
I would say that was overkill but there is no overkilling what Julia Ayrault did in 2023-24. This was a full-blown metamorphosis that both saw Ayrault back as the exciting talent we saw pre-foot injury, while also seeing her catapult herself to places never before thought possible. She quite literally went from a fringe Top 2,000 player in college basketball to comfortably into the Top 100.
The numbers show why Ayrault was so special last year, but she was also just a tremendous do-it-all gadget for Fralick with her skillset. She can defend all five positions, is one of the best shot blockers in the country and also can score from about anywhere. Foul trouble remains her major flaw area, but when Ayrault was on the floor, there were a very select few players in the country who were better last season.
Ayrault is one of four key returners from last year’s rotation, as is reigning Sixth Player of the Year Theryn Hallock. Hallock was the most efficient scorer of an extremely efficient lineup, shooting 52.2% while being a pest on defense and hitting nearly 37% of her threes. I’ll be curious to see if she prefers coming off the bench or if she’ll be utilized more as a starter this season.
Abbey Kimball and Jocelyn Tate are the other core returnees. Both started all 31 games and bring more specific skillsets to the table. Kimball was a good shooter last year (36.4 3PT%) who feels like she has the potential to be a great one based on her remarkable free throw percentage. Tate is more of an interior presence who is an important rebounder and key defender to bring back for her fourth season under Fralick, the first two being at Bowling Green.
Mary Meng and Isaline Alexander both had their seasons cut short due to injury, and both should factor into the rotation if healthy. Meng showed early promise working inside as a true freshman, and Alexander was set for key minutes through the three games she played.
Incoming Players
The Spartans have loaded up this offseason, bringing in eight total players — four from both the portal and their incoming freshman class.
The transfers in are dynamic and do a great job at filling potential holes among the returnees. Hagemann was an extremely turnover-averse point guard who played with fire? The replacement could be Ball State’s Nyla Hampton, who also has an assist-to-turnover above two and averaged well over three steals per contest. Three-point shooting potentially hurting post-Joiner? How about Ohio State’s Emma Shumate, who absolutely lit it up from three in limited action last season.
You also have, simply put, excellent talent potential with Oregon’s Grace VanSlooten, who managed to impress in spite of what was an extremely terrible Ducks team last year. Finally for the transfers, Jaddan Simmons has experience in a power conference, is another capable playmaker and also was tremendous at forcing turnovers.
It’s not as flashy as some other hauls in this conference, but Michigan State truly did great work in the transfer portal this offseason, and the roster looks more complete than I anticipated it to largely because of it.
If healthy, it feels like the Spartans are already deep enough before considering first-year options, but this class has some potential star power that could merit game action early on. Sinai Douglas stands at 5-4, but was a proven facilitator at the high school level and could be a great long-term option at point guard with two graduate transfers coming in.
The three incoming forwards will all be in a battle for minutes, both with each other and with Meng and Alexander for who will be behind Ayrault (who can definitely play forward), Tate and VanSlooten. Juliann Woodard is worth watching for considering her pedigree coming in, and I hope we can see some opportunities for her since interior depth is not quite decided.
Outlook
Projected Starters
Nyla Hampton - G
Abbey Kimball - G
Julia Ayrault - G
Jocelyn Tate - G/F
Grace VanSlooten - F
Projected Big Ten Finish: 9th
My big takeaway with Michigan State is “there is no way this team is ninth,” which I know I’m going to be saying in some variety for the next few weeks. Minnesota felt too low, but the Spartans have built a roster that deserves better than me saying they will finish five spots lower than last season.
Are there areas of concern for me? Partially. It felt like so much went right for Michigan State last season that the team might be in for a slight dip, but maybe I’m only saying that because it happened to Illinois after the remarkable 22-23 season. Regardless, sometimes staying excellent is harder than getting there in the first place, especially in Year Two under a head coach.
That being said, Michigan State is still going to play such fun basketball and be really good while doing it. Bringing Ayrault back as a centerpiece, getting VanSlooten as a major interior scorer, finding another efficient playmaker in Hampton, this team has the pieces to be better than it was last season in spite of my ranking here.
It might come down to finding more players who can take a leap. Hallock likely starts unless she prefers coming off the bench, and if she does maybe a star turn takes place. I could see Shumate taking a leap in this type of system, and I think Alexander returning to the lineup is a huge deal to help the Spartans be more of a threat on the inside and the glass.
Michigan State is ninth on this list, and yet I would still be very surprised if the Spartans missed out on a return to the NCAA Tournament. There’s talent lost, but it was assessed excellently through the portal. Three-point shooting may take a dip, but I expect to see a lot same beautiful basketball I saw from this group last year make a return in 24-25.
Photo Credit: Michigan State Athletics
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