Michigan's Doing It Again
Plus some Caitlin Clark numbers, because why not
Next week begins the biggest of BIG matchups that will likely decide the conference champion: Iowa-Ohio State, Indiana-Michigan, Indiana-Ohio State, Maryland-Michigan, all in a four-day span from Jan. 23-26.
So, next Monday will be a deep dive into that title race. This week, I want to give more attention to Michigan, who is very good once again.
I, likely mistakenly, expected Michigan to be good, not great in 2022-23. I have said this a few times throughout the season, but I want to start with that again because that was also the general expectation for this Wolverines roster.
But Kim Barnes Arico has proven, once again, that she is one of the very best coaches this sport has to offer, because this Michigan team is much more than that.
The Wolverines are now 15-3 on the season, two of those losses coming by single digits to Ohio State and Iowa, two of the best teams in the country. Yes, that Toledo loss still looks pretty bad, but the Rockets are a top-50 team nationally, per Her Hoop Stats, and could very well make the NCAA Tournament.
I think that loss to Toledo made me go back to my preseason mindset for a few weeks. Surely, Michigan is actually taking a step back, but this full midseason résumé absolutely disagrees.
+16.2 points margin per game (27th in the country)
110.5 HHS offensive rating (16th)
77.5 HHS defensive rating (13th)
And these numbers do not come from a cakewalk schedule. The aforementioned Buckeyes and Hawkeyes are great teams, but Michigan also has wins over teams like Baylor, Miami (Fla.), North Carolina and South Florida. Yes, these games all happened weeks ago, so why talk about Michigan now?
Because last week was, in my eyes, a great test for where the Wolverines stand in the conference this year. We have seen Michigan battle the top teams, but both did end in defeat. Victories over Nebraska and Penn State aren’t nothing, but both of those teams have yet to reach their respective ceilings either.
So for the Wolverines to come out this week and pulverize Purdue on the road, then follow that up with a convincing victory over Michigan State, proved to me that they are still the elite team we’ve come to know.
The Purdue game specifically stood out. Michigan took a 39-35 lead into halftime, then came out and flattened the Boilermakers, in their own gym, with a 21-9 third quarter advantage. That wasn’t enough for the Wolverines, who also won the fourth 20-15 to end up with the 21-point advantage.
As has been said all year, the key to the success has been Michigan’s big three of Emily Kiser, Leigha Brown and Laila Phelia, who have combined to score 63.4 percent of the Wolverines’ points this season (875 out of 1,381). All three are doing the scoring evenly (Kiser 17.2 PPG, Phelia 16.3 PPG, Brown 16.0 PPG), and all three are doing it with impressive efficiency (Kiser 58.0 FG%, Brown 50.8 FG%, Phelia 44.9 FG%).
What excites me the most about Michigan is that I believe it still possesses a second gear that could click in at any point. Some role players have flashed at moments this season, mainly Cameron Williams, who had 18 points and 10 rebounds in 37 key minutes against Ohio State. But there’s also Oregon State transfer Greta Kampschroder who holds significant potential as a former top prospect, as well as Jordan Hobbs, who has earned more significant playing time in recent games.
But the big, clear answer here for Michigan to take another jump and become a legit Big Ten contender, is unlocking the Maddie Nolan we have seen in past seasons, and that’s already starting to happen.
Nolan had a slow start to the 2022-23 campaign, hitting multiple threes on 40+ percent efficiency just once in the first 12 games. She has now done it four times in the past six contests. Her scoring has also improved in the past six games, averaging 10.3 PPG compared to the 7.2 PPG she was averaging prior.
The nickname Maddie Nylon started for a reason: Nolan shot 40.5 percent from deep last season, and if she can get to a similar clip again down the stretch, the space that will create for Michigan’s core should push the offense to another level. No matter what, Nolan is much more than her shooting, as her 1.5 steals per game illustrates. She is an exceptional perimeter defender for the Wolverines, and if her offense gets back to previous levels, she’s absolutely a top-25 level player in the Big Ten.
More big games are coming for Michigan, which means more opportunities to prove how much better this team is than expected. KBA is awaited in Valhalla for what she’s done to this program.
Clark (Somehow) Is Getting Better
Caitlin Clark probably gets about as much national coverage as the rest of the Big Ten combined, and that’s why I try to not make every single Monday post about her.
But folks, Caitlin Clark is an exceptional basketball player and she’s having her best season yet, whether or not the stats agree.
The stats, as always, are despicably good:
Clark is once again one of the top scorers, passers and rebounders in the country. Her scoring is down 0.2 from last season, her rebounds are down 0.5 and her assists are down 0.7, but the most important improvements are in the shooting percentages.
By the end of last season, Clark shot 33.2 percent from three, which is fine, but not a number you want to see for a player known for chucking it up from the logo. It makes those insane shots have a bittersweet when less than a third of the three attempts go in.
This year, Clark has the same gravity on offense, but is being smarter with her opportunities and connecting on a very solid 37.6 percent of her threes. Her interior scoring — which remains underrated — has stayed great, and it’s led to her shooting nearly 47 percent from the field.
Above is Clark’s offensive and defensive ratings each of the past three seasons, with her freshman year at the bottom and junior year at the top. Even as her numbers ballooned as a sophomore, the offensive rating went slightly down to a still-exceptional 112.9.
This season, Clark has taken a slight, slight hit to her numbers and has become a better all-around offensive weapon for it. That 8.3-point jump is no small feat considering how highly she’s always been rated.
The more steep improvement has come on the defensive side of the ball, where Clark (and Iowa, in general) has gone from a complete liability to extremely solid.
Combine all that together, and it’s clear how Clark has went from 0.42 win shares per minute in 2021-22 (23rd nationally) to 0.52 in 2022-23 (12th). She’s a special, special talent.
What To Watch
The top of the top tier matchups come next week, but the Big Ten always has something to offer, and this week is no exception.
Penn State vs. Minnesota, 1/18, 7 p.m., B1G+
Both of these teams need a win so bad. Penn State had a no good, very bad week, losing two games by a combined 70 points. But, these teams have talent and one of them will find some momentum here.
Purdue vs. Nebraska, 1/18, 7 p.m., B1G+
These teams also need a win, as both are firmly on the NCAA Tournament bubble. With this one in West Lafayette, I think it’s really anybody’s game.
Illinois vs. Indiana, 1/18, 8 p.m., B1G+
Game of the week! Illinois fought the Hoosiers down to the wire in Bloomington early in the season, and now the teams will travel to Champaign. One small difference in this one, though: Grace Berger is here, and Indiana looks monstrous with her back.
Michigan State vs. Rutgers, 1/22, 3 p.m., B1G+
Rutgers has picked up some wins lately, and Michigan State has picked up some losses lately. The Spartans, at home, really should beat this Scarlet Knights roster, but momentum could lead to some madness.
Penn State vs. Wisconsin, 1/22, 5 p.m., BTN
I’m watching Penn State closely this week with two winnable games that could make or break this team’s hopes for either NCAA Tournament or NIT play. The Badgers have been a pesky team lately unless you’re Indiana, and Marisa Moseley might be rounding this group into shape late in the year once again.
Feature Photo Credit: @umichwbball on Twitter
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