Women's NCAA Tournament Outlook
Which Big Ten teams will survive the weekend?
Hello everyone, sorry for not posting on Thursday, It’s busy times over here for me, but it is also March Madness, so nothing can stop me this week.
Six Big Ten teams made it into the Field of 68 for the women’s bracket, as Northwestern ended up just missing the cut. But, these six teams all are the favored seed for their opening matchups, meaning that each of them have the potential to make deep runs.
Here is a look at the full bracket:
Now, let’s look at the road for each of the Big Ten teams.
Indiana
Seed: 3
Opening Round Opponent: Charlotte
Her Hoops Stats Prediction: Indiana 71-56 (89.8% win probability)
Indiana had an excellent season capped off by an excellent run in the Big Ten Tournament, and all of that resulted in home games for the first two rounds here.
With Mackenzie Holmes healthy, the Hoosiers are likely worthy of being ranked even higher, and the development of Chloe Moore-McNeil off the bench is so crucial for Indiana’s depth and ability to make a deep run.
This opening matchup against Conference USA champion Charlotte is an interesting one for more reasons besides it being my beloved 49ers. Charlotte completely switched offensive identities this season to a slower pace (77th in 2020-21, 264th this year) and defense-first (295th in points allowed in 2020-21, 53rd now) team. The switch worked, but the 22-9 record is a tad generous considering how many close wins this team has.
Indiana should — begrudgingly — win here, which would lead to a matchup between the Kentucky/Princeton winner. I don’t think I have to say much about how little anyone wants to play Kentucky right now, and this would be an absolute classic if we are fortunate enough to get it.
Her Hoops Stats gives Indiana the advantage against the Wildcats (70.6%) considering a home court advantage, and that would lead potentially, to another devastating matchup. This time, it’s UConn, now more healthy than it has been all season, and fresh off utter domination in the Big East Tournament.
Indiana has the experience to make this interesting, but UConn’s defense has been completely smothering as of late. The games might as well be home for the Huskies in Bridgeport, Conn., but UConn is favored regardless of location, and this is where I expect Indiana’s run to end.
Prediction: Sweet 16
Iowa
Seed: 2
Opening Round Opponent: Illinois State
HHS Prediction: Iowa 88-66 (93.6%)
The Big Ten Tournament victors earned a surprising 2 seed, making the road to a lengthy run even more likely for the red-hot Hawkeyes.
Illinois State is efficient in a very slow offense (36th in FG%, 319th in pace), which makes it hard for me to see a way the Redbirds can put up a fight against Iowa’s transition offense.
Next would be the Colorado/Creighton winner, and the 10-seeded Bluejays are actually considered the tougher matchup here (76.9 Iowa win percentage) to the Buffaloes (83.4%). Regardless, the red carpet is set for an all-time matchup in the Sweet 16: Iowa vs. Iowa State.
A much lesser version of the Hawkeyes fell to the Cyclones early this season, but the teams are a near coin flip heading into the tournament. HHS has Iowa at a very narrow 51.7% edge.
If Iowa moves on, its reward is South Carolina, the No. 1 overall seed. The Gamecocks have proven to be beatable as of late with some fourth quarter woes, and a showdown between the two top Player of the Year candidates — Aliyah Boston and Caitlin Clark — would be a true delight.
Clark could ignite against anyone regardless of how she is guarded, but I don’t see any way Boston can be contained down low. This clash of styles would be fascinating to see, but I tend to agree with HHS’ projection here and think the Gamecocks (77.7%) would pull through.
Prediction: Elite Eight
Maryland
Seed: 4
Opening Round Opponent: Delaware
HHS Prediction: Maryland 87-68 (91.2%)
I have absolutely no idea what to expect from Maryland. Here I go, anticipating a run to the Big Ten Tournament final, then the Terrapins go out and score 51 against Indiana.
The Blue Hens are an odd team that scores at a decent rate while not being very efficient at all, but Maryland shouldn’t have any problems there. The next matchup, which will be against either Virginia Tech or Florida Gulf Coast, I am far less confident in.
HHS likes Maryland with at least a 70% probability in either game. I don’t agree. Florida Gulf Coast is a mid-major juggernaut with a 26-2 record with a future WNBA draft pick in Kierstan Bell. The Eagles can and likely would score with Maryland, and whichever team is hotter from the field will win.
Let’s say Maryland does win that game. I think the run ends in the Sweet 16 regardless, as Stanford might be the best team in the country right now, and can deal with all the weapons the Terps have offensively. Sweet 16 is absolutely possible, but after the inconsistencies in Indy, I have Maryland getting upset this weekend, which would be a brutally underwhelming result with the talent on this roster.
Prediction: Round of 32
Michigan
Seed: 3
Opening Round Opponent: American
HHS Prediction: Michigan 73-52 (95.8%)
Michigan may be a lower seed than Iowa, but I think the Wolverines got the best draw of the conference. Upsets can always happen, of course, but I don’t think the Wolverines will struggle against American or either of BYU or Villanova to get out of this first weekend in tact.
That would lend to a potential Sweet 16 rematch with Baylor, who Michigan took down in OT earlier this year. I say potential with a lot of emphasis, because I think Ole Miss is a legitimate sleeper to worry about.
The Wolverines are the slight underdogs (47.7%) if it were to be Baylor, and would be favorites against Ole Miss (65.7%). I have a lot of belief in this Michigan team and its tournament potential, and I will give Michigan the slight nod over a very good Baylor team.
That would lead to an Elite Eight matchup that could be against Louisville, the lowest of the 1 seeds. I also think it could be Tennessee or Oregon. Earlier in the year, Michigan was pummeled by the Cardinals in a 70-48 defeat. The Wolverines had 15 points at halftime.
What lunatic would then pick Michigan in this matchup, if it were to happen again? Me. For one, I am not confident Louisville will even be here, but even so, I think Michigan’s experience, and improved ability to help Naz Hillmon gives the Wolverines an edge they didn’t previously have.
I truly believe the road is there for Michigan to make a Final Four run, and there is where I think it likely ends. Still, getting to Minneapolis would be one hell of a story for this program.
Prediction: Final Four
Nebraska
Seed: 8
Opening Round Opponent: Gonzaga
HHS Prediction: Gonzaga 68-66 (Nebraska 42.9%)
Nebraska won 24 games and has three wins against top 12 teams. Its reward? An absolutely brutal seeding and opening opponent. Both of these teams have a scoring margin in the top 20 in the country, and while Nebraska has picked up the pace this season, the Bulldogs have very much not, ranking 320th in possessions per 40 minutes.
This makes for a fascinating battle that should be a great game. Both teams spread the ball out, with Gonzaga doing it to almost an impossible level (four leading scorers with PPG between 10.0 and 10.9).
I will give the narrow edge to Nebraska here, but I don’t think the winner of this is getting past Louisville. The Cardinals may be a weaker 1 seed, but they still have been mostly dominant this season. Still, if Nebraska gets just one win, it will cap off a tremendous year for the Huskers.
Prediction: Round of 32
Ohio State
Seed: 6
Opening Round Opponent: Winner of Missouri State/Florida State
HHS Prediction: 70-67 vs. Missouri State (58.3%), 75-67 vs. Florida State (74.3%)
The Big Ten regular season champs got about what was anticipated with a 6-seed, and now awaits the results of the play-in game. It appears that the Buckeyes may have rooting interest there, as Missouri State’s stifling defense (54.6 PPG) could be more of a concern than Florida State’s efficient offense (43.7 FG%).
Regardless, I would pick the Buckeyes here. They have fared well against lesser competition, and I think the Jacy Sheldon-Taylor Mikesell duo would be too much to deal with. But can Ohio State get past LSU, with potential coach of the year Kim Mulkey completely turning around this once lackluster program?
LSU is the 64.3% favorite as the home team, and is a solid scoring team in its own right with 73.7 points per contest. Here’s the bright side, though: LSU is one of the very worst teams in the country against the three ball, something Ohio State is particularly built to exploit. Would I still pick the Buckeyes, especially considering their prior struggles in this tournament? I think yes, and maybe those two years out of the tourney from powers out of their control gives them an added boost to reach the Sweet 16.
Past there, I think Ohio State would falter to Texas. The Longhorns can match the Buckeyes’ shooting and is much, much better at defending the perimeter. But getting out of the first weekend would be a huge win for the Buckeyes as is.
See you back here on Monday to review how right I was.
All stats and win percentages come from herhoopstats.com
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