A Month From March
A look at NCAA Tournament aspirations with four weeks left in the regular season
We have entered February. The chaos is at an all-time high, the wins and losses are starting to pile up and every game feels like it’s just a little bit more important right now.
It seems like the right time to dive deep into some March projections… after we discuss a little bit of said chaos that ensued this past week.
Last Week’s Hoopla:
Quickly, let’s talk about last week. A lot can be thrown into tournament talks, but some won’t be, and I will not let these games be lost in the Hoopla catalogue.
Caitlin Clark History Watch
After a routine 38-point, 12-assist outing against Maryland, Caitlin Clark sits at 3,462 career points, 66 shy of breaking Kelsey Plum’s NCAA record.
Clark is averaging 32.4 points per game this season — 5.1 points ahead of JuJu Watkins in second. That average is up to 34.2 PPG in Big Ten play, which would put her on pace to beat the record in Nebraska this Sunday.
Her brilliance has become the norm, but don’t let that get in the way of how beyond ridiculous Clark has been this season. With all the pressure from *everywhere* on her back, Clark’s shooting a career-high from the field and from three, and she has Iowa at a 21-2 record. It’s out-of-this-world impressive.
By the way, if you want to watch more out-of-this-world impressive, Watkins’ 51-point performance over Stanford is among the most insane college basketball performances I have ever seen. Watching the highlights should be mandatory. As a reminder, she will be in the Big Ten next season.
Rutgers 71, Nebraska 70
Rutgers gets its first Big Ten win of the season! On the road! Against a team that’s projected to go to the NCAA tournament! Without its best player!!
The Scarlet Knights took a double-digit lead into the fourth quarter and held on for dear life down the stretch, and I mean held on. Nebraska cut the lead to one with 49 seconds left, then Rutgers missed a three, turned it over and missed a pair of free throws in the final 14 seconds.
Nebraska had two layup attempts and a shot at a three, any of which could have stole the victory. All three missed, and the Scarlet Knights got on the board in Big Ten play. With no Kaylene Smikle, it was 21 points, 5 rebounds and 4 assists from Kassondra Brown off the bench that made the difference.
The Cornhuskers won the turnover battle 23 to 8, had 21 more shot attempts and 8 more free throw attempts, but shot 33.8 percent on the game in the loss. Rutgers shot 59.6 percent (!!!) in the win.
Northwestern 69, Wisconsin 43
This felt like a win that 2020 Northwestern would have gotten. Everything clicked here for the Wildcats, who held the Badgers to 25.8-percent shooting overall in a complete dismantling.
Caroline Lau — who was shooting 37.1 percent from the field entering the game — was a perfect 9-for-9, including 4-for-4 from three, to earn a game-high 24 points. Serah Williams, who has been so dominant for Wisconsin as of late, had 11 points and 6 turnovers on 3-of-12 shooting.
As big of a win as this was for Northwestern, it was an equally disastrous loss for the Badgers. Wisconsin’s other game last week was an 87-49 loss to Ohio State that saw the Badgers stay within striking distance at halftime, only to be outscored 39-11 in a historic third quarter by the Buckeyes. Wisconsin’s had some strong performances this season, but a week like this to fall to 10-11 is disheartening.
Tournament talk time.
There are, in my opinion, 10 Big Ten teams that have some sort of shot at making the NCAA Tournament, outside of a run in the conference tournament. These teams are separated into a few tiers, and I will discuss those down below.
I’ll be using a couple of metrics and tournament projections from outside sources: the NET rankings, ESPN’s Bracketology and Her Hoop Stats’ Bracketology. The NET gives a solid overall gauge of a team’s résumé, while the other two give an idea of where experts see teams as far as current seedings.
Note: ESPN and Her Hoop Stats last updated their projections on Feb. 2 and Feb. 1, respectively, as of writing this. I will make sure to note games that have happened since the projections when relevant.
Fighting For Home Games, 1 Seeds
Iowa (21-2, 10-1 Big Ten)
NET: 5th | ESPN: No. 1 Seed | HHS: No. 1 Seed
The Hawkeyes have followed through on last year’s successes in a big way, and have all but locked in home games in the first two rounds. The only question left for them now is if they can maintain their spot as a projected 1 seed.
The NET still has Iowa below South Carolina, Stanford, UConn and Texas, but the Hawkeyes are without a bad loss since Kansas State has risen into the elite ranks, and look to be in good shape to stay here, especially if they can get revenge on Ohio State in the final game of the season.
Ohio State (19-3, 10-1 Big Ten)
NET: 14th | ESPN: No. 3 Seed | HHS: No. 3 Seed
The Buckeyes are playing their best basketball as of late, which was emphasized by a 74-69 victory over Indiana on Sunday. That win should put Ohio State ahead of the Hoosiers in tournament projections, even if the NET kept Indiana above.
As of right now, Ohio State is atop the Big Ten with wins over both Indiana and Iowa and that pesky loss to Michigan being the only blemish. But the Buckeyes got both of those teams at home, and will likely have to take down Iowa again to keep that 1 spot. Still, Ohio State have now won nine in a row, and are looking closer to a 2 seed than to dropping out of the Top 16 and missing a home game.
Indiana (18-3, 9-2 Big Ten)
NET: 13th | ESPN: No. 3 Seed | HHS: No. 3 Seed
The Hoosiers are an analytics dream team: All three losses were on the road to top 10 teams, and Indiana has a top 10 offensive and defensive rating, per Her Hoop Stats.
Indiana feels as rock solid as the numbers say, and have continued to prove that against all other competition. The question of this team’s ceiling may be fair, but the Hoosiers were without Sydney Parrish in Columbus this weekend and played the Buckeyes much closer than the Cardinal or Hawkeyes.
Indiana is not a lock to stay as a top four seed, but it would take a surprising loss to enter that conversation. For now, the Hoosiers feel relatively safe in the Top 16.
Should Be In, Fighting For Top Eight
Michigan State (16-5, 6-4 Big Ten)
NET: 20th | ESPN: No. 8 Seed | HHS: No. 8 Seed
The Spartans are in a good place right now to return to the NCAA Tournament in Robyn Fralick’s first season as head coach, but aren’t completely out of the woods on that front yet.
Michigan State has a three-game stretch of at Indiana, Ohio State, at Michigan coming up. That’s followed with a much more friendly four-game close to the season, but you simply never know in the Big Ten.
That said, the NET has loved the Spartans all year, and Michigan State has won three straight heading into Minnesota this evening. This team has played great basketball all season, and has a realistic shot of being the favored seed in the first round, which would be a massive accomplishment for Fralick and co.
Penn State (16-6, 7-4 Big Ten)
NET: 25th | ESPN: No. 7 Seed | HHS: No. 10 Seed
Similarly to the Spartans, Penn State feels somewhat safe in at least getting into the Big Dance, even after a five-point home loss to Michigan this weekend. The NET has maintained that the Nittany Lions are Top 25 caliber, even.
The loss was Penn State’s first since Ashley Owusu entered the fray, snapping a six-game winning streak. A road game against Iowa next is a difficult ask, but at Wisconsin and home against Illinois should get the Lions back on track.
This team feels so well-rounded with Owusu in the picture, though Tay Valladay’s absence will hurt if it is a long-term one. Even if not as a Top 8 seed, I expect to see Penn State in the NCAA Tournament, and that’s a major credit to Carolyn Kieger and her slow build of this program back to where it once was.
On The Bubble
Nebraska (14-8, 6-5 Big Ten)
NET: 33rd | ESPN: No. 8 Seed | HHS: No. 9 Seed
A few days ago, Nebraska would have been above this line and seemed at least the slightest bit comfortable as a team that should be in the NCAA Tournament. But you can’t lose to Rutgers at home in February with seven prior losses on the résumé without falling to the bubble.
I am curious where ESPN and Her Hoop Stats list the Cornhuskers in their next updates, but Nebraska fell six spots in the NET following the defeat. There are a few good wins on the schedule to counteract this: the six-point road win over Michigan Stat likely being the best, but Nebraska has also been more or less running in place for about six weeks now.
Since Dec. 20, Nebraska is 5-6. Two of its next three games are against Iowa and Ohio State. It’s not Code Red in Lincoln, but the Cornhuskers can’t afford another loss like it took this past weekend.
Minnesota (14-7, 4-6 Big Ten)
NET: 37th | ESPN: First Four Out | HHS: No. 8 Seed
ESPN and Her Hoop Stats disagree heavily on where this Gophers team should sit, and Minnesota has not played since either of these projections.
The problem is that, immediately following a statement 19-point win over Michigan State, Minnesota has dropped three straight. Two were on the road by single digits, but those losses were also to Wisconsin and Illinois. Two losses were also without star guard Mara Braun, who is out indefinitely after requiring surgery on her foot.
The Gophers face the Spartans again, then get Ohio State at home, but are welcome with a sequence of Rutgers-Northwestern-Wisconsin following those two. With or without Braun, those need to be wins, and those need to be where Minnesota finds an identity that works without their best player. Dawn Plitzuweit has worked a lot of wonders in a small amount of time already for this program, so I do think it’s possible to do so here and keep Minnesota in the tournament picture.
Maryland (12-10, 4-7 Big Ten)
NET: 34th | ESPN: No. 12 Seed (Last Four In) | HHS: No. 10 Seed
After earning their 10th loss of the season and fourth defeat in a row on Sunday to Iowa, I expect Maryland to be out of the tournament picture for at least ESPN. The analytics (and my eyes) would say that the Terps are definitely talented enough to make the NCAA Tournament, but that record is not good enough as of Feb. 5.
All is not lost for Maryland yet, and Brenda Frese can absolutely keep this team’s NCAA Tournament streak alive. The next four games are: at Rutgers, at Illinois, Penn State, Rutgers. Yes, the Nittany Lions did beat Maryland by 36 eight days ago, but these almost need to be four wins if the Terps want to gain any sort of tournament safety.
It feels like everyone is waiting for the Maryland that always shows up to, well, show up. This team has had injury misfortune and a brutal schedule, but it also hasn’t found that extra gear we are used to seeing. This is a stretch of games it could happen in, and it needs to happen if Maryland wants to dance once again.
Michigan (15-8, 6-5 Big Ten)
NET: 52nd | ESPN: First Four Out | HHS: First Four Out
This team confounds me.
You look at some of these wins — Ohio State, Maryland, at Illinois by 36, Middle Tennessee State by 14, and as of this weekend, at Penn State — and it feels like Michigan can’t be left out.
But then you look at some of these losses — all eight losses by double-digits, including Toledo by 23, Florida by 17, Minnesota by 16 at home, Nebraska by 19, Illinois (the very same one they beat by 36 on the road!) by 13 at home — and you wonder how the Wolverines have even remained in the conversation.
The NET seems equally confused by all of this. Michigan has beaten Maryland and has a much better overall record than the Terps, but finds itself 18 whole spots below them.
What matters the most here is that Michigan is a respectable 15-8, is above .500 in the conference and has proven capable to beat just about anyone on the right night. The Wolverines also have a favorable schedule to end the season, with 4 of 7 games at home, and three games against Rutgers, Northwestern and Purdue.
But to say the Wolverines can beat about anyone also means the reverse in that this team has lost some games I would not have anticipated. That can’t be true down the stretch if Kim Barnes Arico wants this team to return to the NCAA Tournament. That Penn State win Saturday was a *huge* one, and the Wolverines need more like it.
Never Say Never
Illinois (10-10, 4-6 Big Ten)
NET: 51st | ESPN: N/A | HHS: N/A
Yeah, I am not ready to call it on the Illini just yet. After two straight wins over teams discussed above (Minnesota, at Michigan), Illinois is back at .500, and are similar to Maryland in the sense that the analytics believe in this team.
Illinois currently rates above Michigan in the NET and, outside of that embarrassing defeat to the Wolverines in December, have lost every other game by 11 points or less. The Illini also have an end-of-season schedule that gives them a real opportunity.
The next two Illinois games are at Purdue and home against Northwestern. If those are wins, the Illini are now equal to Maryland’s current record with a .500 Big Ten record to boot.
It will likely come down to if the Illini can beat, or legitimately compete, with one or both of Indiana and Iowa in back-to-back late February games. They get the Hoosiers at home, which may be their best bet.
Shauna Green’s team is hitting its groove late, but it might not be too late. If Illinois can go 3-0 this week, with Maryland at home on Sunday being the other, I will be all aboard this express next Hoopla.
Photo Credit: Michigan Athletics
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