2023-24 Big Ten Women's Basketball Preview: Nebraska
With a lot of the same faces, can the Cornhuskers get back to 2021-22 heights?
Here we are, officially in the second half of the team previews. There are so many teams this year with exciting rosters that it’s surprising to me that we still have six to go after this. But alas, we move forward.
Last Week’s Preview:
Overview
Long time Hoopla readers know the excitement I have had about Nebraska women’s basketball in the past. The 2021-22 season was a massive one for head coach Amy Williams and co. After just one 20-win campaign in Williams’ first five in Lincoln, the Cornhuskers put it all together, winning 24 games and making the NCAA Tournament.
The 24 victories were the most under Williams and the highest for Nebraska since 2013-14. The result was a No. 8 seed in the NCAA Tournament, and while that ended in a loss to an under-seeded Gonzaga team, the future looked bright for the Cornhuskers under Williams, as the program had a real energy to it that wasn’t there prior.
That energy didn’t vanish last season, but it was diminished, and Nebraska ultimately missed out on going back to the Big Dance.
Nebraska’s 18 wins were the second-most since 2017-18, the Cornhuskers did go to the WNIT and the team earned some big victories overall, including 23- and 33-point road wins over Maryland and Illinois, respectively, so the talent on the roster was clear.
Unfortunately, there was less of a flair here than last year’s roster, and the numbers were much more middling across the board. The 2021-22 team scored 77.8 points per game, outscored opponents by 13.5 per game and finished in the top 25 nationally in both field goal and three-point percentage. The defense remained about the same, but last year’s offense fell to the middle of the pack (for Big Ten standards), primarily because of the drop in efficiency.
The core of the 2021-22 roster that launched this program to new heights under Williams was, in large part, still here last season, and many of the key faces are still here heading into this season. Nothing about 2022-23 screamed disaster, more so just a tad disappointing.
Here’s last year’s Nebraska roster, sorted by Her Hoop Stats win shares:
Departures
Despite some of the struggles Nebraska faced last season, there is not one transfer out of the team. There are still four departures, two of which are significant. Isabelle Bourne ultimately decided to not use her extra year of eligibility, instead returning to her home in Australia. She was an excellent scoring forward, a Hoopla 40 member and a player that is difficult to directly replace.
Also difficult to replace is Sam Haiby, who played five seasons at Nebraska and was always far more impactful than the box score displayed. She was a clear leader on the court who battled multiple injuries to play last season before ultimately facing one that ended her season in the WNIT. It’ll be strange to see Nebraska without her.
Trinity Brady started all eight games she played last season before she went down to injury. Her and Nailah Dillard are no longer on the roster, but appear to be ending their college careers instead of looking to play elsewhere.
Returnees and Transfers
Nebraska is in the top half of the predictions this season because of Jaz Shelley. Her decision to return for one more season singlehandedly raises this team’s ceiling dramatically.
Shelley shouldered more of the offensive responsibility last year, and the results were mostly great. She lead Nebraska with 14.5 PPG while continuing to be a solid rebounder and terrific passer. On the other end, Shelley remains a defensive force, ranking top 10 in Big Ten defensive win shares for the second straight year.
Since transferring over from Oregon, Shelley has simply been among the very best players in the Big Ten, and her ability to heat up from deep has won Nebraska more than a fair share of close games in the past two seasons.
Last season there were more cold spells, and her efficiency dropped (40.6% → 36.1% from three, 42.5% → 38.9% overall), but Shelley started gaining that form back throughout the season. After 10 single-digit scoring performances in the first 22 games of the season, Shelley finished the year with 11-straight games of 10+ points, hitting multiple threes in all but two of those contests. A bounce-back feels not just likely, but inevitable.
Her main scoring partner will once again be Alexis Markowski. The former Big Ten Freshman of the Year didn’t quite take a leap as a sophomore, with her scoring and shooting percentages dipping slightly, but she improved on the glass and remained a great defensive presence inside.
Year three is a big one for Markowski, and I’m hoping to see some more dominance from her as an interior scorer. If she can be a consistent double-double threat, her and Shelley make for a truly elite duo to build around.
I don’t think I realized how much Allison Weidner’s season-ending injury last year may have hurt the team as a whole. Weidner was off to an exceptional start to her sophomore season, giving the Cornhuskers a little bit of everything while shooting over 60 percent from two and 36 percent from three.
Without Bourne and Haiby, a No. 3 option will be necessary, and Weidner was the fifth player on the roster to average double-digit points last season. She may be in for a big, big season next to Shelley and Markowski.
Maddie Krull and Annika Stewart are two very reliable veteran pieces who could see expanded roles this season. Krull played nearly 29 minutes per game in her first season at Nebraska from South Dakota, but was used more for her defensive prowess. Stewart could be Bourne’s replacement at forward, and is someone who can stretch the defenses out, especially if she can re-find her freshman shooting form (44.6 3PT% in 2020-21, 28.4% last season).
Rounding out the returnees are four second- and third-year players that each offer a solid amount of potential if they were to see larger spots in the rotation. Kendall Moriarty feels like a player that could show up and surprise everyone at any point. She earned her first start in the WNIT, gave Nebraska solid minutes off the bench all season, and has real flashes of excellence that could all come together this year. At 6-1, I could see her getting a starting role at the four if she impresses enough.
Kendall Coley is back for a fourth season at Nebraska, but is listed with junior eligibility assumedly due to the COVID year. She has been a solid option off the bench as a three-level scorer with decent efficiency, and looks to do that again this season.
If Callin Hake’s freshman year told us one thing, it’s that she is a Capital-S Shooter. Hake shot nearly 10 threes per 40 minutes, ranking 54th in the nation. Her 33.7 success rate from deep was good, not great, but seeing the confidence to fire away in a somewhat limited role was an excellent sign for her development.
Maggie Mendelson was the other true freshman on the roster, and her time split with volleyball caused her to miss some early action. That will slow her development, but she has clear potential based on size and athleticism alone. She remains on both the basketball and volleyball teams, but I’m hoping an extra offseason allows us to see more of that potential come through.
With only four players leaving, none through the portal, Nebraska brings in just one transfer: Montana State’s Darian White.
Even standing at just 5-6, White was a terror in the Big Sky, getting to the basket without issue for 14.3 PPG, 4.3 of which came at the free throw line. She is one of the best players in the country at drawing contact, and gives Nebraska another major facilitator which will be huge for Shelley, who has been turnover prone at times for the Cornhuskers.
Freshmen
There is a whole lot to be excited about with this three-player class, starting with Logan Nissley.
Nissley was a dominant scorer in high school who hit 47 percent of her threes as a junior. She was relentless as a defender and might be counted on immediately to make an impact off the bench, or perhaps as a starter considering just how good she was in North Dakota.
I’m also not counting out seeing Jessica Petrie or Natalie Potts getting significant spots in the rotation. Petrie joins the Cornhuskers from Australia, where Nebraska has somehow cornered the market on talent. Her significant experience on the Australian national team, as well as her impressive numbers in a semi-pro league, makes me think the transition to college will not take long.
Potts, like Petrie, brings solid size to the table immediately, but unlike Petrie she showed off her skills at the high school level. She is also a multi-time player of the year in her state and was a great scorer and rebounder inside. Nebraska has maintained success recently thanks in part to its terrific rebound rate, so this skillset should fit well with Williams’ game plan.
Outlook
Projected Starters
G - Jaz Shelley
G - Maddie Krull
G - Allison Weidner
F - Annika Stewart
F - Alexis Markowski
Projected Big Ten Finish: 7th
Guys, I still really love this Nebraska roster, and I fear I may be underrating it, but I just don’t know which of the six other teams left I’d put here.
Yes, this is in a lot of ways a very similar roster that we saw last year, and that team missed the tournament. But this team is now also playing with the knowledge of last year’s disappointment, while continuing to build team chemistry and developing together instead of individually.
There may not be as many additions as other rosters, but I really, really like the adds that Williams has made here. White should be an instant impact player, either as a starter or the first player off the bench. Regardless, she should get a lot of important minutes. I also expect to see a lot of these three freshmen, and was oh so close to putting Nissley in the starting five if Nebraska is going to go all out on the three ball.
Instead, I will stick with what is likely a “safe” pick for the starters. Shelley and Markowski are no brainers, Krull started nearly every game in the back half and Weidner, if healthy, should also be an easy choice. Stewart is a similar player offensively to Markowski, but may see her efficiency go up with all these extra threats on the floor.
Because we know how a lot of these players play, Nebraska’s floor feels relatively safe, and this is a team that really, really should be playing in the NCAA Tournament. The ceiling depends on seeing Shelley’s efficiency come back up, Markowski taking that next step into stardom and some of these new faces making an impact in the way they seem very capable of doing. Also don’t sleep on a big rise from Moriarty, I’m just saying.
Nebraska, at its best, is a delightful basketball team to watch, and I expect we will see a lot of what made the Cornhuskers so joyous two seasons ago. How much of it we see, and how much they can elevate past that, is unknown, but I am drinking the Kool-Aid that last year was a small misstep on the road to something greater.
This is Shelley’s last year, but Amy Williams has built a roster that has plenty of bright spots moving forward. More importantly, this is also a team that can — and should — be good enough right now to get to and win in the NCAA Tournament.
Photo Credit: Courtesy of Nebraska Athletics
If you are interested in more Big Ten women’s basketball content like this, you can subscribe with the button at the top or bottom of the post, or share it with the button below. Thanks!