2023-24 Big Ten Women's Basketball Preview: Northwestern
The Wildcats enter Year Two of a rebuild, who can help lead them out of it?
We are here, it is time.
Welcome to the third installment of Hoopla’s team previews, 14 weeks of in-depth looks at each Big Ten women’s basketball team heading into the new season. Here, we will look at what the team’s did last year, who left/arrived over the offseason and what the outlook is for that specific team heading into the new year.
I do these team previews in order of how I expect the Big Ten standings to look at the end of next year. That means that yes, apologies to Northwestern fans, but I am starting with your Wildcats at No. 14. But don’t be alarmed, the goal of these team previews is to talk about why each team is worth watching. Will there be negative things said in these previews? Absolutely, but the ultimate purpose is to endorse watching and discussing the basketball in this conference, not tear it down.
Without further ado, let’s get into our first team of the new year.
Overview
It was a disappointing season for the Northwestern Wildcats in 2022-23, no doubt about it.
Let us not all forget that just four seasons ago, Northwestern won a share of the Big Ten regular season title after a 26-4 season. Under star players Lindsey Pulliam and Veronica Burton, the Wildcats were ready to make significant noise in the NCAA Tournament before COVID-19 wiped it out.
Unfortunately, that core never got a better chance than that one, and the win totals have been declining since. Last year was the first without either of Pulliam or Burton, and it ended with single-digit victories for the first time since head coach Joe McKeown’s first year with the team in 2008-09.
Northwestern played at a significantly faster pace than it had for any of the Pulliam/Burton years, and the result was a decline on both sides of the ball. The offense scored 3.2 less per game, but the major fall off was on defense, where the Wildcats allowed 7.2 more per contest.
McKeown’s “blizzard” defense has always led to significant steal rates, and Northwestern’s 9.4 steals per game did rank 41st nationally. But that was not enough to overcome a scoring defense that dropped 141 spots in the national rankings from the year prior.
Those defensive stats were where Burton, the three-time Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year, was missed the most.
So how does Northwestern start to get back to the levels it saw in 2019-20? It must find difference makers and primary scorers that it just did not have last season. Some players on this current roster have flashed potential, and 2023-24 appears to be all about finding more of that.
Here's last year’s Northwestern roster, sorted by Her Hoop Stats win shares:
Departures
The Wildcats are losing 4.8 total win shares from last season while returning just 4.2, which is certainly not an ideal way to continue a rebuild. But over half these losses were out of Northwestern’s control: Both Sydney Wood and Courtney Shaw, the two largest losses, were due to exhausted eligibility.
Wood’s impact last year kept Northwestern from slipping to historic lows, as she filled the box score on both sides of the court. Her 34.2 minutes per game were nearly 10 whole minutes above the next player, proving how necessary she was to anything the Wildcats wanted to do last season.
Her and Shaw will be missed for two of the most consistent pieces on the roster, while Kaylah Rainey and Jillian Brown’s exits signify places of missed potential. Rainey’s a fifth-year player, yes, but saw her first significant collegiate action this past season and became Northwestern’s primary facilitator.
Brown on the other hand is entering her junior year and has flashed scoring prowess, but never put together the efficiency to see that come to fruition. Both Rainey and Brown shot poorly from the field last year, but excellently from the free throw line. This tells me there’s real potential for improvement for both of them, and it’ll be interesting to see if that happens at their new destinations.
Laya Hartman and Anna Morris are the other two transfer exits, and both leave after three-plus seasons with the Wildcats. Hartman was a solid rebounder in limited action but also struggled from the field, while Morris is switching sports entirely to join Ohio State’s impressive volleyball program.
Returnees and Transfers
Northwestern is hoping that last year was rock bottom. For that to be true, the team will likely be relying on the frontcourt duo of Paige Mott and Caileigh Walsh to lead the way. Mott and Walsh are the clear top returning contributors from the season prior, with a combined 69.0 percent of the remaining win shares.
Walsh led the team with 12.1 PPG in her sophomore season. More importantly, she made massive strides in her efficiency, improving from 33.3 to 39.3 percent from the field in year two. Her rebounding, assists and free throw percentage also had noticeable bumps, showing she might be Northwestern’s best chance at a star this season.
Mott also made the needed leap, more than doubling her scoring (3.4 → 8.9) from 2021-22 to 22-23. This came thanks to a 13.3-percent (!) rise in shooting percentage as a junior, something that was a fresh change of pace to the not-so-good shooting most of her peers faced.
Both Mott and Walsh have proven capable of making the needed leaps and will be relied on as primary options this season, but the backcourt they will be playing with is going to need to have similar improvements to make the Wildcats competitive.
Luckily, Northwestern has brought in help on that front.
The Wildcats may only have one transfer in at this point, but Maggie Pina is a very solid one. The four-year starter at Boston has 94 total starts to her name and should bring some much-needed consistency to Northwestern’s guards. She shot 5.3 whole percentage points better than the Wildcats’ top three-point shooter last season (Rainey), and her 51 made threes was 15 more than Walsh’s team-leading 36.
Pina was also a great defender for Boston, which led to her impressive win share total. The Big Ten is a lot different than the Ivy League, sure, but Pina’s experience and shooting should make the transition easier.
Aside from Pina, Caroline Lau should be in a prime position for a larger role. Similar to Walsh’s first year, Lau was not the most efficient at 35.1 percent, but showed the ability to score well and had more flashes than most on this roster. She will compete primarily with Pina, Jasmine McWilliams and Hailey Weaver for a starting role.
McWilliams is the incumbent starter, but did not impress in the role, averaging 2.7 PPG on sub-30-percent shooting. The 20 starts may give her an edge, but Lau and Weaver hold more potential, and I think that should be the focal point this season.
Speaking of Weaver, she made the most of limited action and was the team’s best defensive player, according to defensive win shares per 40 minutes. I want to see more of her next season, as well as Melannie Daley, who played in just nine games but showed a real ability to score the ball.
Freshmen
Because of where Northwestern sits currently, it is safe to assume these freshmen should get some sizable action relatively quickly.
Casey Harter is the most likely candidate to do so, both because of Northwestern’s questions at guard and because of her skillset. Harter was an all-around star in high school and that, along with being a two-time captain, should make for a first-year player with more poise than most in that position.
I’m intrigued to see what Crystal Wang brings to the table immediately. Her numbers don’t fly off the page because Wang played for Sierra Canyon, the best high school team in the country. That level of talent surrounding her could also make for an easier transition to the college game.
Finally, Rachel Mutombo brings needed size to the roster at 6-3, and could certainly see action behind Mott and Walsh as key forward depth. I also wanted to add Lauren Trumpy here, who is 6-5 and has an impressive athletic background in multiple sports. She did not see action last year, which may have been added recovery from an ACL tear she suffered in high school.
Outlook
Projected Starters
G - Caroline Lau
G - Maggie Pina
G - Hailey Weaver
F - Paige Mott
F - Cailiegh Walsh
Projected Big Ten Finish: 14th
Some team has to be projected last in this conference, and Northwestern feels most likely to be there for the second straight season.
This Wildcats roster looks largely the same as the one that went 2-16 in 2022-23, but is notably lacking two key veterans, specifically their best player in Wood. There is a clear rebuild happening here and rebuilds take time, but losing only four players to the transfer portal is a decent starting point considering the lack of success on the court.
Mott and Walsh made big strides a year ago and are in a great spot to do it again with even more minutes headed their way. I think that duo could make some real noise, and adding Pina in the transfer portal gives them a solid perimeter option to work with.
I really hope to see a big sophomore bump from Lau, the former ESPN top 100 recruit, as this roster is in need of a spark at guard. The best-case scenario for Northwestern this season is getting back to around .500 overall, seeing Lau blossom as a sophomore, Pina continuing to shoot well and the Mott-Walsh duo taking another stride toward being the primary options.
The 26-4 highs still feel like they are at least a few years away, but there’s hope that McKeown can find his next Pulliam or Burton here, or at least replicate what made those teams so special. For that to happen, the shooting must get better, the defense must get way better and an unexpected name has to rise up.
Photo Credit: Courtesy of Northwestern Athletics
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