2024-25 Team Preview: Northwestern
Can the Wildcats find a new spark with a solid returning core?
Howdy!
As we all know, it is now the start of Hoopla Summer. This does not overtake the BRAT and Charm summers happening around us as we speak, but it is in the same spirit. I have decided it is well past time to get into the depths of Big Ten women’s basketball as the 2024-25 season inches closer, so that’s what we are starting here.
This is the fourth year of my team previews, but for those new here, a quick welcome and explainer of the content coming.
I will be doing individual posts for every Big Ten team over the next 14 weeks in my predicted order of the conference from worst to best. That means, yes, I am putting Northwestern at the bottom, my apologies to all Wildcats fans out there.
With that said, the purpose of the team previews is to talk about why each team is worth your time. I may have negative comments on teams, but the ultimate goal is to talk about the storylines I find interesting with all the programs, not to tear any of them down.
These will come out over the next 14 weeks, but with 18 total teams, that means there will be some double-post weeks. It won’t be this week (spoiler), but I’ll make sure to get every team done in the timeline I made for myself.
Now, let’s get this party started.
Overview
For the second year in a row, Northwestern is the first team I am talking about, and that’s probably not a great sign.
We are about to be five seasons removed from the magical 2019-20 season in which the Wildcats won 26 games and earned the regular season conference title. COVID-19 eliminated Northwestern’s chance to capitalize on that campaign, and the program has not looked the same since the departure of star Veronica Burton to the WNBA.
The good news for Northwestern was that it, in fact, did not finish in last place in the Big Ten. It also didn’t get worse last season. Instead, the Wildcats finished in 13th with the exact same 9-21 record as the year prior, showing that the program has experienced some stagnation in its post-Burton era.
Dspite the record not changing, Northwestern looked worse doing it this past season. The Wildcats lost 19 games by double digits, and 14 of those losses were by 20+ points.
Rebounding continued to be an issue for the unit, and the offense had its troubles, but it was Northwestern’s defense that kept the team toward the bottom of the Big Ten. Opponents averaged 0.94 points per play, 18.9 assists per game and had a 1.51 assist-to-turnover ratio against the Wildcats. Those numbers rank the worst, worst and second-worst in the country, respectively.
Teams were able to shoot at will, pass at will and rebound at will against Northwestern, a program that forced 20.7 turnovers per game off 11.5 steals per game in 2020-21. Three years later, the Wildcats forced 12.6 turnovers and had 5.9 steals per game, numbers that both rank in the bottom 50 nationally.
Last year’s Northwestern offense is an interesting case study. It was rarely the main cause of concern, but it was still troubling to see how the Wildcats utilized its talent.
Northwestern shot decently from the field overall, but specifically thrived from deep with a top-50 percentage in the country. The Wildcats were also excellent at converting from the free throw line, hitting 77.6% of attempts (18th in the NCAA).
So, why then did Northwestern rarely shoot threes and never get to the free throw line? The Wildcats shot the deep ball on 23.7% of all attempts, good for 293rd-most in the country. Northwestern had a free throw rate of 13.3%, 341st in the nation. It felt like a team that was limiting its own potential by not changing the style of attack.
Here's last year’s Northwestern roster, sorted by Her Hoop Stats win shares:
Departures
Northwestern’s difficult 2023-24 season is shown well here, with only three players finishing in the green for win shares. All three of those players return, but the Wildcats lose some key experience elsewhere.
Maggie Pina was a solid guard addition for her three-point shooting, while Paige Mott has been with Northwestern for four seasons as a reliable interior presence. Both Alana Goodchild and Jasmine McWilliams held consistent roles off the bench, but neither should find their shooting last season, both finishing under 26% from the field.
Considering it was a season filled with turmoil, including a lengthy absence from head coach Joe McKeown for an illness in the middle of the year, it’s impressive how well this Wildcats roster has stayed in tact.
Returnees
Nine players return to this Northwestern roster from last year, including five of the top six in minutes per game. Of the group, Melannie Daley, Caileigh Walsh and Caroline Lau is the trio I am looking for to step up if the Wildcats are going to make big strides next season.
Daley played in only nine games for Northwestern in 2022-23 due to injury, but she came back and took over for the Wildcats last season. Daley led the team in points, averaged 1.5 steals per game and was efficient working inside. Walsh was not far behind with 13.0 PPG, and did so with more well-rounded scoring and nearly a block per game. I like this duo, especially if Walsh can continue to expand her three-point ability as she has the past two seasons.
Lau may have finished in the negatives for win shares, but she still possesses significant potential that comes out in bursts. Her shooting improved last season (35.1 → 40.6 FG%, 31.3 → 36.1 3PT%), as did her assist totals, more than doubling from 2.6 to 5.4 per game. Turnovers remain an issue, Lau averaged 3.8 per game, but there is a lot to like about where her game is headed through two seasons.
Hailey Weaver is another key returning piece that had a solid third season in Evanston, but she saw her role diminished in Big Ten play as she was taken out of the starting lineup for Casey Harter. Harter struggled finding her shot during the conference slate, but it also was likely valuable experience for the first-year guard.
Crystal Fuqu Wang and Rachel Mutombo were the other freshmen who could see a potential boost in minutes this season, though the new additions will also threaten to enter the rotation.
Incoming Players
Northwestern’s roster currently sits at 16 players with these additions, something I believe is OK because of one final year with the COVID-19 exception rule, but I’m not 100% on that.
I like what McKeown did to bolster the roster, bringing in a trio of experienced transfers to complement the incoming freshmen. Kyla Jones and Taylor Williams should be able to make immediate impacts, with Jones being used to taking on a heavy scoring load and Williams gaining plenty of Big Ten experience last season with the Wolverines.
Grace Sullivan is also an intriguing add, especially for a team that has not rebounded well over the past few seasons. She was solid as a sophomore for Bucknell hitting 53.8% of her field goal attempts while bringing in two rebounds per game on the offensive glass alone.
Speaking of rebounds, 6-3 IMG Academy product Tayla Thomas could be able to help in that category based on her previous numbers. She is joined by three first-year players that should be able to add to Northwestern’s perimeter presence if the team chooses to utilize that threat more often next season.
Xamiya Walton is certainly the name to watch based on hype coming in. She was a dominant scorer throughout her high school career, and also added five steals per contest. Northwestern really needs a player that can be the spark plug, and Walton feels like she has the potential to ignite this program.
Outlook
Projected Starters
Caroline Lau - G
Kyla Jones - G
Melannie Daley - G
Caileigh Walsh - F
Taylor Williams - F
Projected Big Ten Finish: 18th
While I do believe Northwestern is making the right strides in the long run, I still believe they are the team most likely to be at the bottom of the standings at the end of next season.
The minimal roster turnover and sizable incoming group of players shows that there is real promise, especially if Walton can show flashes of what’s to come. But it still feels to me that it is a “what’s to come” situation even with a pair of seniors likely leading the charge.
Daley and Walsh had solid third seasons for Northwestern and will need to build on those further, as does Lau who really does have the potential to be a game changer when firing on all cylinders. Maggie Pina came off the bench after transferring in, but I think Jones’ scoring prowess gives her a chance to start right away. I’m also giving Williams a starting nod for her in-conference experience last season and overall solid rebounding ability.
This starting lineup would also still leave Northwestern with solid returning scoring options off the bench in Weaver and Harter, along with Sullivan as a new backup forward to utilize and plenty of freshmen to bring into the rotation.
Above all else, I want to feel Northwestern start to gather a new identity, because the old regime’s style has not been working the same without said old regime. This team should embrace the three ball more and find a way to succeed on defense as a unit. The defensive side of the ball needs front-to-back growth if the Wildcats want to make real strides.
McKeown is entering Year 17 in Evanston. He has been a college head coach since 1986 and has had a tremendous career doing it. But this is a pivotal year for this Northwestern program, which now faces a possible reality of three-straight single-digit win seasons to start the post-Veronica Burton era.
Photo Credit: Northwestern Athletics
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