A Week Of Bangers
Four ranked matchups in four days that may help decide the Big Ten race
The Big Ten has five teams with two or less losses at this point in conference play. All five of those teams will be battling with each other at least once over the next week.
Folks, get prepared for The Week in the Big Ten this season (at least until the final week, which has an equal amount of insanity).
This is going to be a drawn out version of the What To Watch I put at the end of most of these Hooplas. All five of these teams are strongly in the running to win the Big Ten this year, and all five are currently projected to host NCAA Tournament games as a Top 16 seed, so they deserve closer looks to see how they will match up against each other.
No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 10 Iowa
Tonight, Jan. 23, 7 p.m., ESPN2
Her Hoop Stats Prediction: Ohio State 82-80 (57.0% to win)
Ohio State (19-0 Overall, 8-0 Big Ten, 1st)
The Buckeyes are 19-0, one of three undefeated teams in the country, but they have not cruised to their best start in program history.
Ohio State has five single-digit wins, trailed at halftime to Tennessee and Louisville, needed a miracle to beat South Florida and overcame a 17-point third-quarter deficit against Illinois. But the common theme in those games is that Ohio State won, just like it has all season.
Adversity has come at the Buckeyes in plenty of ways, including key injuries to Madison Greene (knee, out for season) and Jacy Sheldon (leg, hasn’t played since Nov. 20). Sheldon is now out of her walking boot, but likely isn’t ready to play yet. That means the underclassmen duo of Taylor Thierry (12.2 PPG, 6.5 RPG) and Cotie McMahon (12.5 PPG, 4.1 RPG) will have to continue stepping up, along with, of course, star guard Taylor Mikesell (18.5 PPG, 40.1 3PT%).
Iowa (15-4 Overall, 7-1 Big Ten, T-2nd)
There have been some bumps in the road for the Hawkeyes, especially considering the lofty expectations that were put on this roster to start the season. But, looking back, none of the losses were all that bad, and Iowa is starting to play some of its best basketball.
The Hawkeyes have won 10 of their last 11, eight of which were by 13 or more points. When the team is at its best, it’s because of Caitlin Clark. The reigning Big Ten Player of the Year is having another terrific season, averaging 26.7 PPG, 7.6 RPG and 7.5 APG. She also has the always reliable Monika Czinano (17.9 PPG, 6.6 RPG) inside to make for a lethal combo.
Unlike Ohio State, Iowa had remained mostly healthy to this point, with all five starters playing all 19 games. But McKenna Warnock was injured last game against Michigan State and is questionable for this matchup. Her presence is massive for the Hawkeyes as a key third scoring option (11.9 PPG, 44.0 3PT%).
Keys To The Game
Iowa is the more talented team on paper, Ohio State has been the better team this season, and this matchup is going to come down to the Buckeyes keeping it that way.
Clark cannot be completely stopped, but she can be forced into bad shooting nights with lots of turnovers. Ohio State forces 23.1 turnovers per game, fourth-most in the country, and if its defense can stifle Clark, the offense will probably take over from there.
But, Clark is not the only star Iowa has. Czinano is one of the best interior scorers, period, and Ohio State’s strength has not been defending inside. Kendall Bostic (27 pts, 15 rebs) and Cameron Williams (18 pts, 10 rebs) went off for Illinois and Michigan, respectively, and Czinano is a far better scorer than either of them.
For Iowa to win, it must withstand the inevitable big run that Ohio State always seems to have. Go up 10, 15, hell, 20 points, and the Buckeyes won’t stop coming at you. If Iowa gets a lead, it will need to play turnover-free basketball against what appears to be a full Ohio State crowd. That’s very, very hard to do.
No. 14 Michigan vs. No. 6 Indiana
Tonight, Jan. 23, 8:15 p.m., BTN
Her Hoop Stats Prediction: Indiana 69-67 (57.7% to win)
Michigan (16-3 Overall, 6-2 Big Ten, 5th)
Michigan has, quietly, become one of the most well-rounded teams in the Big Ten thanks to the rise of Emily Kiser (17.6 PPG, 6.8 RPG) and Laila Phelia (16.7 PPG, 1.6 SPG). Those two, along with the always-reliable Leigha Brown (15.8 PPG, 6.0 APG) make for a dynamic trio that can score all over the court.
The Wolverines rank 10th nationally in field goal percentage (48.1%), 12th in free throw percentage (78.3%) and 46th in three-point percentage (35.1%), but that’s only half of the “well-rounded” part. Michigan, under head coach Kim Barnes Arico, is elite defensively once again, holding opponents under 40-percent shooting while dominating the rebounding battle (55.2% rate, 24th in the country) and forcing a laughable 0.55 assist-to-turnover ratio (13th).
Maddie Nolan (7.8 PPG) and Williams (7.1 PPG) make for reliable extra options from the perimeter and in the paint, respectively.
Indiana (17-1 Overall, 7-1 Big Ten, T-2nd)
Just one pesky loss to Michigan State separates the Hoosiers from Ohio State territory, but Teri Moren’s team has looked like one of the very best in the country since a certain someone came back.
That someone is Grace Berger, the midrange god who has never found a crucial bucket worth passing up. Berger’s stats (11.8 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 5.0 APG) don’t fly off the page, but she is crucial to everything the Hoosiers do on both sides of the floor. You know who else is crucial? Mackenzie Holmes, who I have as not very far off Clark territory for POTY consideration. A not-too-shabby 21.7 PPG, 8.2 RPG, 1.7 BPG combined with a somewhat-decent 68.1 FG% shows how much Holmes is a supercharged monster on both sides of the floor this season.
Like Michigan, Indiana is far more than a good scoring team. The Hoosiers rank fifth in defensive efficiency via Her Hoop Stats, and teams struggle to do just about anything against them.
Keys To The Game
Kiser vs. Holmes may just decide it if this matchup is lopsided.
These have been two of the most valuable post players in the nation all season long, and both are great defensively. If Kiser can slow down Holmes, like at all, it increases Michigan’s chances exponentially.
Michigan will also need players like Nolan and Williams to have their best games. Indiana is deeper — having Sydney Parrish, Chloe Moore-McNeil and Sara Scalia as secondary options is truly sickening — so the Wolverines will need excellent performances deeper than their big three.
Again, the crowd can’t be forgotten about here. The Crisler Center can get LOUD, and Michigan will need that energy to try and take down this stacked Hoosier lineup.
No. 10 Maryland vs. No. 13 Michigan
Thursday, Jan. 26, 6:30 p.m., BTN
Her Hoop Stats Prediction: Maryland 74-71 (57.4% to win)
Maryland (16-4 Overall, 7-2 Big Ten, 4th)
The Terps may not be the all-too-powerful juggernaut they were for awhile in the Big Ten, but they are still extremely talented and find themselves in the thick of the conference race.
Maryland relies heavily on veteran star Diamond Miller (18.6 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 2.0 SPG), and she has delivered with plenty of monster performances, while often finding a way to get big baskets late.
She’s not alone, though, as Princeton transfer Abby Meyers (13.4 PPG, 40.8 3PT%) and Shyanne Sellers (14.9 PPG, 5.2 RPG) bring a lot to the table, especially on offense. Brenda Frese’s teams always dominate on that side of the floor, and this year is no different, with the Terps ranking 12th in offensive efficiency, helped along by shooting 37.1% from deep as a team, 16th-best in the nation.
Keys To The Game
These teams are extremely even on paper, and it may come down to who controls the pace. Maryland plays fast, averaging 3.3 more possessions per 40 minutes than the Wolverines, and if the Terps can control the tempo, it’ll be hard for Michigan to keep up.
On the other end, I’m not sure Maryland is equipped to stop Michigan inside. The Terrapins are a mediocre rebounding team, but also struggle to stop the deep ball. It could be a big day for Kiser inside, and if Phelia can hit big shots, which she has proven capable of, the Wolverines could steal one in College Park.
Michigan is technically the underdog in both of the gigantic matchups this week, but I have a hard time seeing the Wolverines lose both.
No. 6 Indiana vs. No. 2 Ohio State
Thursday, Jan. 26, 8:30 p.m., BTN
Her Hoop Stats Prediction: Indiana 78-70 (74.1% to win)
Keys To The Game
It’s a gigantic week for Rebeka Mikulasikova. Ohio State’s fourth-year center has had a great season (14.6 PPG, 5.4 RPG), but she will need to have huge defensive efforts this week for the Buckeyes to stay undefeated.
Indiana, like every team that faces Ohio State, needs to play the composed basketball that it has all season (12.8 turnovers per game, 18th in NCAA), and it will need to find a way to contain Mikesell. Ohio State has lots of depth, but Mikesell is the player the Buckeyes turn to when they need a bucket late in games or with time expiring on the shot clock.
If, and this is a huge if, Sheldon can return for this game, that will even the scales even more as an alternate scoring option and a tenacious defender (reminder, Sheldon averaged six steals per game in the five contests she played this year). If Sheldon is out, Thierry, McMahon and Rikki Harris will play massive roles, and will need to slow down the likes of Berger, Parrish and Moore-McNeil.
This is a much more lopsided win expectancy than I would have, but Indiana is the more complete, healthy team, and is at home for this matchup between the current top two teams in the conference. That said, I’ve seen Ohio State do Ohio State things over, and over, and over again this year. The Buckeyes are begging to be counted out of a game, so they may just thrive under the pressure.
Of the four unbelievable ranked matchups in store for this week, the schedule makers may have saved the best for last.
Feature Photo Credit: Courtesy of Ohio State Athletics
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