2023-24 Big Ten Women's Basketball Preview: Ohio State
The Buckeyes are the deepest team in the Big Ten. Will it lead to their first Final Four in 30 years?
Every Hoopla offseason, I have released these team previews in order of how I believe they will each finish in the Big Ten standings. Plenty of those rankings were difficult decisions, absolutely.
Choosing between these last two teams is the most I’ve went back and forth by a large margin. They feel like 1A and 1B, but my obligation to rank them leads me here, so let’s do it.
Last week’s preview:
Overview
Last year was an exciting one for Ohio State in so many ways. The Buckeyes started the season 19-0, stumbled a bit toward the end of the regular season, but found their footing again at exactly the right time, making an impressive run to the Big Ten Tournament final, then an even more impressive run to the Elite Eight.
Ohio State’s postseason run included a 23-point second half comeback against Indiana in the conference semifinals, a thrilling 71-69 victory over North Carolina in the Round of 32 and, of course, a 73-61 stunner over UConn in the Sweet 16.
The Buckeyes fell short of the Final Four at the hands of Virginia Tech, but there was so much to like about how this team came together under head coach Kevin McGuff last season.
Ohio State’s 28 wins matched the 2016-17 and 2017-18 seasons for the most since McGuff took over as head coach, but this was the first Elite Eight appearance of his tenure, and the first for the program since the runner-up team in 1993.
The Buckeyes were able to reach these heights thanks to an excellent well-rounded offensive attack that loved to most fast and catch opponents on the fast break. You know what else caught opponents? Ohio State’s smothering press defense that forced 11.3 steals per game, sixth-most in the NCAA. It was that press defense that wreaked havoc the Hoosiers and Huskies, proving that even experienced rosters could get flustered by the pure tenacity Ohio State brought to both ends of the floor.
As has been the case since Dorka Juhasz transferred to those previously named Huskies, Ohio State struggled to rebound effectively, but made up for it with really impressive skill in a variety of other areas on the floor.
Last year’s team earned these numbers with a roster that got dealt two significant long-term injuries. There’s a reason why this year’s team has earned sky-high expectations from national media outlets.
Departures
Here’s last year’s Ohio State roster, sorted by Her Hoop Stats win shares:
Ohio State loses just four players from last year’s team, three of which were through the portal. Of that trio, Hevynne Bristow was the most consistent performer, but Kaitlyn Costner and Mya Perry are leaving as underclassmen without ever getting a prime opportunity.
The loss of Taylor Mikesell is absolutely a big one, as she accounted for 45 percent of Ohio State’s 258 made threes last season. She did that without the gravity of either Madison Greene or Jacy Sheldon for much of the year. Mikesell’s 116 makes from deep were 75 more than the next highest on the roster. Someone give her a real chance in the WNBA, I beg.
Returnees
There’s a long list of returning players to be excited about, but the player at the top of that list has to be Cotie McMahon after what she did as a freshman.
McMahon started for Ohio State from day one, but grew exponentially as the season went on, carving out her role as one of the most dangerous players driving to the rim in the conference. She averaged 15.9 PPG against Big Ten opponents while keeping her shooting percentage above 50, and she often shined the brightest when it was most important, tallying 23 points against UConn and a season-high 30 in a comeback overtime win over South Florida.
The scariest part about McMahon is that there are clear areas where she can improve, that being in three-point shooting (26.3 percent) and foul troubles (2.8 per game, 91st percentile among all players). Even with those shortcomings, it often felt like there was no way to stop McMahon when she was getting to the rim, and she has a certain unflappable energy that is impossible to overstate. Year Two Cotie should be among the most exciting things to watch in the Big Ten.
No, I did not flip my Taylor’s on that chart above, Taylor Thierry was far and away Ohio State’s most valuable player according to the analytics. She is a tremendous two-way player that helps the Buckeyes in a million different ways: By scoring the ball with elite efficiency, being the team’s best rebounder and one of its best defenders.
Thierry’s also got foul troubles (3.2 per game, 97th percentile), but she is the perfect foil to what McMahon brings. For all the unrelenting energy and fire that exudes from McMahon’s play, Thierry is the level-headed silent assassin that can do her damage behind the scenes.
This duo will be joined, hopefully in full, by veteran guards Jacy Sheldon and Madison Greene, who both missed extended time last year. When they played, both were exceptional, with Sheldon taking charge as the most stifling of defenders, while Greene was automatic from range and gave the Buckeyes a true point guard to work the offense through.
Sheldon returned for Ohio State’s tournament games, even hitting a crucial game winner to help the Buckeyes survive against the Tar Heels, and I expect her to be back at 100 percent. Greene had her second season-ending leg injury in as many years, a terrible blow to such an impactful player. I really hope we see her at full strength, because people have forgotten how good she can be.
Ohio State returns both Rebeka Mikulasikova and Eboni Walker at the forward position alongside McMahon, and I will be intrigued to see how both are utilized this season. Mikulsikova is the better scorer and can stretch opponents out behind the arc, but McGuff went with Walker late in the season, and her effort as a rebounder and defender made a significant impact. There’s also a transfer to add to the mix (more on that shortly), but we will certainly be seeing both of them in sizable roles.
Emma Shumate was able to provide some sparks off the bench for Ohio State last season, and can continue to do so if she can improve her efficiency. Kaia Henderson could also see a larger role in her second full year with the program, and showed some ability to shoot from deep last season in limited action.
With only the returning players, Ohio State appeared ready to run it back with solid success. These transfer portal adds turn the Buckeyes into a team worthy of national title consideration.
Ohio State’s press defense is adding the reigning ACC Defensive Player of the Year in Celeste Taylor, aka, opponents are about to be in the shadow realm. Taylor’s defensive win shares ranked sixth in the NCAA last season, a truly remarkable amount of value from a guard. She was also a solid scorer on a Duke roster that was… not known for scoring. This is one of the most home run, no-brainer adds I’ve ever seen in the portal.
The Buckeyes did not stop there, and I think the Taiyier Parks move is not getting the right level of credit because of how good the Taylor move was. Parks thrived in East Lansing, dominating on the interior as a rebounder and scorer, while also flashing the ability to force turnovers. All of these things are what Ohio State needed in a post player, and she should get a large role because of that.
Finally, I also like the move to get Kennedy Cambridge, both for depth this season and for the ceiling she possesses. She didn’t get a lot of action for the Wildcats, and yet she still averaged over a steal per game and shot efficiently from the floor. Are we sensing a pattern yet?
Freshmen
I’m curious how much we see of the first-year players this season for Ohio State. Talent-wise, it would make sense if the Buckeyes went with the more established talent it possesses, but McGuff has never shied away from playing freshmen that earned the time, see: McMahon, Sheldon, Juhasz, Kelsey Mitchell, etc.
There’s a chance that one of Faith Carson or Diana Collins can make that leap, but this roster is *deep*. Collins seems the more likely of the two to get some real action. She was a dominant player in high school, constantly breaking program records as a scorer. She will, at the very least, give Ohio State more options if Greene is not at 100 percent.
Carson has a large athletic background and that can often translate to a high ceiling if developed well. At 6-4, she has the height to make it happen, and the Parks addition should keep the pressure off early and let her grow at a reasonable pace.
Outlook
Projected Starters
G - Jacy Sheldon
G - Celeste Taylor
G/F - Taylor Thierry
F - Cotie McMahon
F - Taiyier Parks
Projected Big Ten Finish: 2nd
It is refreshing to see a team so fully aware of what worked for them, and so ready to dive head first into those qualities.
Ohio State knows the brand of basketball that led to its most successful run in 30 years, and McGuff went out and established that identity with perfect transfer moves. It was an excellent decision that makes the Buckeyes the true best version of themselves this season.
As said above, I would hear out the argument that the Buckeyes deserve to be No. 1 on this list. I had Ohio State No. 1 on my list multiple times as I flipped back and forth. The talent is obvious, and the depth is staggering: If this roster is fully healthy, I could see 11 or 12 players being options for their core rotation.
Who starts out of Parks, Mikulasikova or Walker will be intriguing, but I think Parks’ rebounding brings a needed component. If Greene is back healthy, I could also see a small-ball lineup with McMahon and Thierry moving up to the forward slots, and I don’t know how you can stop that to be honest.
Ohio State’s ceiling may in fact be the highest in the Big Ten, but the Buckeyes still come with a few areas of worry. As said, rebounding, but losing Mikesell takes out basically half of Ohio State’s three-point makes from last year. Sheldon is a better shooter than she showed last season, but some major regression from the perimeter as a unit is likely.
But that is being picky. There is far more to love about this roster than there is to be concerned about. Ohio State is going to put opponents in a trash compactor, and it’s going to lead to a whole lot of success.
Cotie McMahon is a rare breed of player, and she has true All-American potential based on what we saw last season. Jacy Sheldon has proven capable of being a No. 1 star when healthy. Taylor Thierry was quietly a machine as a sophomore. Celeste Taylor is a two-way terror who improves everything the Buckeyes did last season.
Ohio State took the nation by storm after upsetting the mighty UConn, and now they are receiving projections as a No. 1 tournament seed. Good, they should be. This roster has all the makings to be truly special.
Photo Credit: Ohio State WBB (@ohiostatewbb), Twitter/X
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