One More Before The War
Big Ten women's basketball enters conference play as even as I've ever seen it
This is the last Hoopla before Big Ten teams face off against each other for the first time this season.
It was the perfect time for the NET Rankings to be released, which says the same things my eyes have throughout this opening month of the season:
Man, this conference schedule is going to be an all-out war.
Last Week’s Hoopla:
This week feels like it has a million storylines. Multiple teams picked up big wins, some teams escaped tough defeats, the NET rankings were just released and Big Ten conference play starts this weekend.
It’s a lot, which means some things might be missed, but let’s not waste any more time.
The NET Rankings
For those unaware, the NET rankings are analytics used for the NCAA Tournament that rate teams without using any preseason data, instead relying on a variety of other metrics.
They are not an end-all, be-all ranking, but they are a good judge of team success, especially this early on without as many common opponents for these Big Ten teams.
The full rankings can be found here, and I posted all the Big Ten rankings on the Elon Musk website here. Here are my key takeaways, some of which (ones in bold) will be strung into their own sections:
Iowa leads the Big Ten, ranking 6th. That feels about right so far, and means that no team in the conference has played its way to a No. 1 seed yet. I think that’s fair, and the teams ahead of the Hawkeyes have proved more to be there for now.
Michigan State 7th.
Ohio State 15th feels low. That opening loss to USC (12th in NET) is more understandable by the day, and the Buckeyes just beat down Tennessee on the road last night. The rest of the strength of schedule is likely holding Ohio State back, but this team is better than 15th, and should keep moving up.
Indiana 28th also is a little low, but I do understand it. The Hoosiers have a couple solid wins against Princeton and, like Ohio State, beat Tennessee big. But the Stanford rout and the closer-than-it-ever-should-have-been win against Maine (138th in NET) have dropped them to here. Like the Buckeyes, they should rise from here.
Penn State 33rd is proper recognition of a team exceeding expectations. The Nittany Lions have some decent wins and one very understandable loss to USC, and have earned being in the top 35. They also got ranked at No. 25 in the AP Poll today, an awesome achievement for a program that had been sputtering for so long prior to this season.
Minnesota 42nd.
Maryland 43rd.
Purdue 88th is fair, and one I hope to see rise in Big Ten play. I respect the Boilermakers playing a tough non-conference schedule, but three losses is tough to overcome at this point. That Texas A&M win (29th in NET) is looking like a big one though.
Northwestern is at 284th in the NET, over 100 spots behind the next Big Ten team (Rutgers, 175th). The Wildcats are in a tough spot currently, despite some promising play from Hailey Weaver and Caileigh Walsh. Four of the five losses have been blowouts, and the one that wasn’t was against a Loyola team that won six games last season. This program needs a spark, but for now it is comfortably at the back of the Big Ten heading into the conference slate.
The Rise Of Sparty
Last year, Michigan State was the analytics darling that couldn’t get the results to match. So far, and I want to emphasize that it is early, the Spartans have kept the underlying numbers pristine, and have been the seventh best team in the nation according to the NET.
First-year head coach Robyn Fralick has Michigan State sizzling through its non-conference schedule, winning 7 of her first 8 games with a net margin of +35.1 points per game, fourth-best nationally.
The Spartans are averaging 93.9 PPG and 123.9 points per 100 possessions, both behind only Utah, who is fourth in the NET. Their lone loss is a 14-point defeat to Creighton, who is 13th.
Michigan State has beaten the pulp out of every other opponent, with each victory coming by 25 points or more. Four of the wins have been by 44+ points.
All of this is a sign that Fralick has gotten this roster to buy into her system quickly, as there has been no sign of a lull out the gates. The play of DeeDee Hagemann (14.9 PPG, 4.6 APG, 55.2 3PT%) has been exceptional, as has the rises of Moira Joiner (14.9 PPG, 54.7 FG%) and Julia Ayrault (12.8 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 3.0 BPG), all of which are upperclassmen who chose to stay through the coaching change and have been immediately rewarded for it.
Is this seventh-place ranking an outstanding sign of growth? Without question. But it does come with a caveat. Those seven victories have been against opponents with an average NET ranking of 201. Only one — DePaul — was in the top 100, and the Blue Demons rank 95th. It hasn’t been especially tough competition, but then again, Michigan State has treated them as such with complete blowouts every time.
I want to see Michigan State have to play a close contest, and I think we will get to see that this week. Regardless, what a start for Fralick and this Spartans roster.
Maryland’s Much-Needed Rally
I’ve been hard on the Terrapins in the early part of the season, and the NET was as well, ranking Maryland 43rd out of the gates. Like Purdue, it’s hard to overcome three losses, no matter who they are against. Looking at it with that lens, the Terps are behind only UConn (16th) and Duke (24th) as far as three-loss teams go.
Let’s get this out of the way before talking about the good. The defeats were lopsided, yes, but they came against stiff competition: South Carolina (1st in NET), Washington State (21st) and the aforementioned Huskies at No. 16.
Here’s what the Fake Women’s College Basketball Media isn’t telling you, though: Maryland has some damn good wins. Green Bay is 5-2 with double-digit victories over Creighton and Washington State on the résumé. They are 27th in the NET. Add that nine-point neutral site victory to wins over Syracuse (36th), Harvard (58th) and, most recently, George Mason (84th). That’s four wins in the top 100 of the NET.
So yeah, I thought the Terps would hang with those top teams more, but this is by no means a disaster start, and Maryland proved the type of team it could be in the second half against George Mason yesterday.
The Terps were down 42-33 at halftime to the undefeated Patriots before rallying for an 86-77 victory. This was led by 28 points, 13 rebounds and 5 assists from Shyanne Sellers, who took over in a huge way when the team needed her most. It was the star turn the team will need as the schedule remains tough, but it’s an excellent sign of where Brenda Frese can get this roster.
Reader, I love this Minnesota team.
This Gophers team, like Penn State, is coming in at 7-1 with a very reasonable loss (UConn by 18). Minnesota has mostly just taken care of business against a slew of lesser competition, but got two important challenges this week that it passed two different ways.
First, Minnesota played the slow, defensive-minded Norfolk State and buried them, 74-43. A few days later, the Gophers had to play a high-flying Drake team, maybe the best non-UConn team thus far (90th in the NET).
It was a battle, and it looked like the Bulldogs were going to come away with it, but Minnesota rallied late to force overtime, then battled through a pair of extra frames to come out with a deeply important 94-88 victory.
This is a significant win for a variety of reasons, most important to me being that it showed Dawn Plitzuweit’s team can be resilient and composed in a big moment. It took a three by freshman Grace Grocholski off a terrific Mara Braun pass, followed by a steal and score by backup guard Janay Sanders to turn a five-point deficit to a tie game with 23 seconds to play. Then, Braun scored 14 of her career-high 33 points in the two overtimes to seal the deal. She added 4 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 steals, 3 blocks and ZERO turnovers as well.
Braun is averaging 18.8 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 3.8 APG and 2.3 SPG. She is shooting an improved, but still not ideal 39.5 percent from the field, and has hit all 27 of her free throw attempts. She was the star on Saturday, and is quickly molding into the player she seemed capable of being last season. This entire starting five is in double figures, and the overall defensive effort is such a breath of fresh air compared to Minnesota teams of the past.
Like a lot of these Big Ten teams off to hot starts, Minnesota will need to prove it against more difficult competition, and prove the ability to do it away from home — all 8 games have been at home so far. But this Drake win, along with a big victory over Stony Brook (59th in NET) proves, like Penn State and Michigan State, that this Minnesota roster has serious potential.
What To Watch
It’s a few days of some great non-conference matchups before a weekend of Big Ten play. We go right back to the non-con until December 30th, so all 7 of these matchups will be excellent viewing.
Also, let’s include NET rankings for this week since they are available.
Penn State (33) at West Virginia (31), 12/4 (Monday), 6 p.m., ESPN+
Penn State’s first game as a ranked team in nearly a decade comes on the road against undefeated West Virginia. The Mountaineers have blew out their inferior competition by shooting well from three and forcing so, so many turnovers (25.0 per game, fourth in the NCAA). They lead the nation with a 16.9% steal rate. This should be a terrific game to really see where the Nittany Lions are.
Michigan (25) at Toledo (105), 12/6 (Wednesday), 5 p.m., CBS Sports
This is here for revenge. Michigan fell to the Rockets a season ago, and while this Toledo roster hasn’t had the same early success, it is a road game the Wolverines really need to win. The key will be to slow own Quinesha Lockett, who paces the Rockets with 18.4 PPG.
Iowa (6) at Iowa State (73), 12/6 (Wednesday), 7 p.m., ESPN2
Speaking of teams that haven’t had the same success! Iowa State is not the same dominant team it was so recently, but this is a massive in-state rivalry game that always, always, brings the heat. Both teams will be more than motivated to win a big one in Ames here.
Minnesota (42) at Kentucky (226), 12/6 (Wednesday), 7 p.m., SEC Network
That is not a typo, Kentucky is a bit in the mud right now. The Wildcats should at least be better than that initial NET ranking, and a Power 5 road win is a big deal for this Minnesota roster. It’s a game the Gophers should win, but it would be meaningful regardless, especially since it’s the team’s first road matchup of the season.
As said above, all of these! We get one game apiece to gauge the Big Ten against each other before heading back to non-conference play. The ones I would specifically seek out?
Nebraska (37) at Michigan State (7)
Penn State (33) at Ohio State (15)
Purdue (88) at Minnesota (42)
Michigan (25) at Illinois (26)
There are 10 Big Ten teams ranked in the top 50 of the NET, people. This is going to be an unbelievable final two-thirds of the regular season. I can’t wait.
Feature Photo Credit: Minnesota Women’s Basketball, Twitter/X
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