2024-25 Team Preview: Oregon
Can Oregon use a fresh start and fresh faces to avoid a further collapse?
Since the posts these days are more strictly on Big Ten women’s basketball, let me use this intro to talk about something else. Listen to “Imaginal Disk” by Magdalena Bay wherever you listen to music. It’s yet another great album to add to the banger list for 2024, but I feel the need to promote it because it is truly a special, out-of-this-world listening experience.
Speaking of something that still feels out of this world, it’s time to look at another former Pac-12 team.
Last Week’s Preview:
Overview
Four years ago, Oregon was at the mountain top.
Led by Sabrina Ionescu’s historic final season and Satou Sabally in her third year, the Ducks finished the 2019-20 campaign at 31-2 and having not lost since early January. They were true national championship contenders a year after making the program’s first ever Final Four.
Then COVID-19 happened, which left Oregon’s record at 31-2 permanently. Now let’s fast forward to last season, where a program that once made historic strides under head coach Kelly Graves completely fell apart.
The post-Sabrina years had been tough, but Oregon was still a competitive team, winning over half of its games each of the first three years. But 23-24 was where the bottom fell out, as a team that started the year 11-7 went winless after January 14.
It was a loaded year for the Pac-12, absolutely, but the Ducks weren’t even competitive in the final three months of the season. During those 14 consecutive defeats, only four were by single digits and only two were by less than seven points. The season ended with a 49-point loss to Colorado to open the Pac-12 Tournament. Oregon scored *30* points and shot 18.9 percent from the field.
What went wrong? Well you see the coloring of those rankings above. After eight straight seasons with an offensive rating above 100, including two nation-leading seasons above 120, Oregon had a rating of 87.6 last season. After six straight seasons with a net rating in the double-digits, the Ducks continued that streak for a seventh year… with a negative rating of -11.1, the first year in the red since 2014-15.
I’m painting this scene for two key reasons. One, because Graves is still the head coach and is likely in significant need of a bounce back year to stay there. Two, and to finally get out of talking negatively, because the worst Oregon team in at least a decade is getting a real chance at a fresh start.
Here's last year’s Oregon roster, sorted by Her Hoop Stats win shares:
Departures
Over half of the 13-player roster from last season will not be making the move to the Big Ten, at least as a member of this Oregon roster. Five players left through the portal, with the two graduates — Bella Hamel and Kennedi Williams, both bringing minor contributions last season.
Unfortunately for the Ducks, two of the largest losses — Grace VanSlooten and Chance Gray — will also be in the Big Ten on new teams. Both are high-volume scorers who should thrive within their new systems.
Losing both VanSlooten and Kennedy Basham is a sizable blow to the forward depth on this roster, while Ula Chamberlin’s exit left more of a need for perimeter scoring on a team that finished 304th national in threes made last season.
Returnees
Keeping Phillipina Kyei in Eugene was so, so important. Her consistently and overall ability gives Oregon something to build around as it tries to pick up the pieces. Like Wisconsin’s Serah Williams, Kyei lapped the rest of her team in win shares and is one of the nation’s best rebounders. She has improved every year and should be the focal point of the team even with so many new faces coming in.
Sofia Bell is also back, and is an underclassmen to keep an eye on for a big year two. She did not play in the final third of the season, a third that was notably very not great for the Ducks and her absence could have been a factor. Bell started all 21 games she appeared in and was a two-way presence when available.
While Kyei and Bell are the two big names returning, the four other players coming back from last season are important to keep some level of stability within this lineup. Sammie Wagner and Sarah Rambus had a combined 61 appearances in their first seasons of action and could have a leg up on the newcomers for roles off the bench.
Incoming Players
Nine new faces are headed Graves’ way, many of which hold program-changing potential if all goes well.
North Carolina’s Deja Kelly felt like the most notable add for the Ducks this offseason both for her talent and for her star power. She is an extremely capable scorer who has had some monstrous years for the Tar Heels, but she took a step back last season and will always be a volume over efficiency player, something that can work well with the right system and unit around her.
Bringing in Kelly makes adds like Elisa Mevius even more important. She’s another capable scorer, yes, but brings so much more to the table as an excellent rebounder and playmaker who could pair nicely with Kelly and Kyei on the floor. She is also an absolute freak of nature defensively, averaging 4.5 steals per game at Siena.
Mevius recently helped Germany earn gold in the women’s 3x3 competition at the Olympics, proving she is not afraid of a larger stage than what she was used to at Siena. I am so excited to see her in the Big Ten, one of my favorite adds of the offseason.
Helping out the aforementioned concerns at forward are Amina Muhammad and Alexis Whitfield, who both bring excitement for different reasons.
Muhammad was a key cog in the Texas machine last season, and comes in with great experience on one of the country’s top teams. Whitfield is a former Washington Husky, but was a dominant player at UC Santa Barbara last season, filling up the box score in a variety of ways. She also is a capable three-point scorer, something the Ducks really could use a boost on from the year prior.
Nani Falatea and Salimatou Kourouma are two transfers worth bringing in for what they’ve done in prior seasons. Falatea was a big-time scorer for the Cougars two seasons ago and has shown the ability to be productive from three. Kourouma was useful in her 13 games for Arizona, but averaged 16.8 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 2.7 SPG and 1.1 BPG the year prior for Little Rock. If either can bounce back to their 22-23 form, that’s an immediate big-time contributor to add to the rotation.
The final add through the portal is Washington’s Ari Long, who holds a lot of potential as a former four-star prospect. It’s a smart add for the future if she can develop behind all of this more proven talent that has been brought in. The same can be said for both incoming freshmen, each of which has a loaded résumé.
Katie Fiso is a top-35 recruit and should see game action despite all the faces entering the program. Her high school numbers are impressive, and she also has international 3x3 experience for the US U18 World Cup team that won gold.
Fiso is joined by Faith Ehis Etute out of Luxembourg. Those stats are not a typo, she did in fact average more than 30 and 20 over a six-game span at a FIBA event. Etute is only 6-0, but is a force on the glass and was more than willing to take over games for her country when she was needed. That’s a skill that should translate very well over into collegiate play.
Outlook
Projected Starters
Elisa Mevius - G
Deja Kelly - G
Sofia Bell - G
Amina Muhammad - F
Phillipina Kyei - C
Projected Big Ten Finish: 12th
Of all the teams in the Big Ten, Oregon might be the hardest one to place entering the season.
On talent alone, the Ducks are a top 10 team in the conference, but talent has not been the key issue for this unit as they have struggled more and more each of the last four seasons. It feels like this whole program has gone into a rut, but a conference swap and large roster shift makes this a great opportunity for a clean slate.
I expect Kelly, Muhammad and Kyei to be locked-in starters. They are each extremely proven players with starting experience at Power Five programs. Mevius really should be as well for her versatile skillset, and I think she makes a great pairing with Kelly at guard.
That would leave Bell as the final starter, which would make sense after she started every game she played in as a freshman. There’s a chance a transfer takes another spot, but Bell should get that opportunity after a promising year one.
Oregon is going to have the size, athleticism and natural ability to compete with nearly every team in the conference. Three-point shooting still does not appear to be a strength, but there are so many natural scorers on this roster that it’s hard to see the offense continuing to stall as it did last season.
Consistency is a concern with so much new being thrown into the picture. I would expect the Ducks to find a big win or two against the top of the conference. On the flip side, the volatility could lead to some head-scratching defeats. That makes Oregon an exciting rollercoaster that enters the Big Ten on a low, but with a real chance to get right back on a high if all the pieces can fit together.
Photo Credit: Oregon Athletics
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