Big Ten Women's Basketball Preview: No. 10 Rutgers
Can the Scarlet Knights survive their Thanos snap of an offseason?
This is the third of the ongoing series of previews for all 14 teams in the Big Ten heading into the 2021-22 season. This is also the first to be a full preview of one team, as we are now into the top 10.
Here is last week’s preview of No. 12 Purdue and No. 11 Penn State
This is the first time I stray away from following last year’s Big Ten standings, and I am doing so in a big way. Rutgers was the third best team by record and second best by scoring margin in 2020-21, but I have them down all the way in 10th. Let’s talk about why.
Rutgers
Last year’s record: 10-3 Big Ten | 14-5 Overall
The Scarlet Knights started their season with a 5-3 record, losing to Maryland, Iowa and Nebraska, each by single digits. It was a disappointing opening to what appeared to be a talented roster, but then, something happened.
First, Rutgers did not play for an entire month (Jan. 3 - Feb. 4) due to COVID-19. Following that – something that should make a team worse, if anything – the Scarlet Knights finished the regular season on a nine-game winning streak, most of which were in blowout fashion.
That impressive run allowed Rutgers to become the No. 3 seed in the Big Ten tournament, but the magic ran out from there. The Scarlet Knights again fell to Iowa in their first game of the conference tournament. Then, Rutgers again got upset, this time as a No. 6 seed in the NCAA Tournament, losing to No. 11 BYU.
It was a disappointing end for a team that finished the regular season red hot, and the offseason only made it worse for C. Vivian Stringer’s roster.
To say this team lost a lot would be an understatement.
Rutgers scored 1,427 points and had 239 steals last season, numbers that, on a per-game basis, ranked fifth in the Big Ten and fourth in the country. Rutgers lost 1,143 of those points and 190 of those steals in the offseason. This is what that looks like on pie charts:
A big chunk of each of those totals came from Rutgers’ star, Arella Guirantes, who was one of the best players in the country, last season. Guirantes is a terrific shooter, can drive to the hoop, has great vision as a passer and is one of the best defenders in the nation, making her a threat no matter what she does.
Rutgers also received a big boost on offense last year from freshman Diamond Johnson, the No. 6 overall prospect in her class, and someone who would have been the conference’s freshman of the year in most seasons. Tekia Mack was one of my personal favorite players because of the pure energy she played with on both sides of the floor, and her numbers only paint part of the picture of the type of impact she has on a team.
This team dominated in the back half of the season, ending the year ranked seventh in the country with a Net Rating of 24.4, according to Her Hoops Stats. This came majorly because of how efficient Rutgers was on offense, despite the defense being the supposed strength on paper.
The Scarlet Knights had one of the slowest paces (No. 272) in the nation, but took advantage of their opportunities better than almost anyone, coming in fifth in the country with a 109.9 offense rating.
But, the dominant run ended at the wrong time, and Stringer’s team got bounced in the Round of 64. Now, one of college basketball’s greatest coaches will have to basically start over from scratch this season.
Tyia Singleton and Sakima Walker give Rutgers some experience inside, while Martino could up her production in a big way if she continues to shoot well. As a team, Rutgers made just 16 more threes total than Caitlin Clark did in her entire freshman campaign, so it’s safe to say that is not where Stringer’s focus has been.
Still, Martino shot 40.7 percent from deep in 27 attempts as a freshman, and could be a weapon for a team that lost its top five scorers from a year ago.
But the main weapons are likely to be the reinforcements brought in to the program this year.
This group of eight fascinates me, and is what makes Rutgers a team that could finish anywhere from 12th to like third in the conference this year, in my eyes.
Of all the players coming in, Osh Brown excites me the most. Brown leaves Ball State as the program’s all-time leading rebounder and put up monstrous numbers in the MAC last season, finishing fourth in boards in the country with just under 13 per game.
Lasha Petree put up some big scoring at Bradley and was excellent and forcing turnovers through both steals and blocks. Victoria Morris was one of the highest volume three-point shooters in the country last year (56 of 168), and could help the Scarlet Knights grow into a team that can stretch the play out to the perimeter more often.
Shug Dickson is one of three power five transfers, but was easily the most productive and could play a factor simply as one of the most experienced players on the team. I am also curious about the addition of Awa Sidibe, who was excellent at Salt Lake Community College, but is making a big leap into Big Ten play.
The last player I want to talk about is Kierra Sanderlin, the lone freshman signee for Stringer’s squad. The amount of players with varying experiences from all across the country makes this a very weird team, and maybe Sanderlin has a quiet year because of that. But coming in as a top 100 prospect who seems to fit Stringer’s mold by being excellent on both sides of the ball, I could see her finding a way on the floor one way or another.
With all that being said, Rutgers might be the hardest team to pin down in the entire Big Ten. So, so much production was lost this offseason, but Stringer has brought in quite the cast to try and rebuild some of that success.
There is a certainly a world where it all comes together. Stringer has been a head coach for 50 seasons, has more than 1,000 career wins and has had a losing record just four times. But this team is going to look dramatically different than the team that surprised everyone last year, and it seems like everything would have to go right for the Scarlet Knights to be back among the top teams in the Big Ten once again in 2021-22.
Next week, it will be the No. 9 ranked team for the Big Ten preview. Before that, I will have a new post on a random topic for you this Thursday. Spoiler alert: It’s about the college football season.
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