2023-24 Big Ten Women's Basketball Preview: Rutgers
The eight-player project mostly worked, but can the Scarlet Knights take another leap?
This preview closes out the first tier of sorts for my Big Ten projections.
Northwestern, Wisconsin and now Rutgers make up what I would label the “Full-On Rebuild” tier. While there are always exceptions (looking at you, 2022-23 Illinois), I would be extremely surprised to see any of these three teams in the NCAA Tournament or WNIT by the end of this season, so the focus should be on developing the players and making clear strides toward eventually getting to postseason play.
Last Week’s Preview:
Overview
Ah Rutgers, what an interesting team to watch these past few years.
Just three seasons ago, the Scarlet Knights were considered a consistent force in the Big Ten, going to 17 NCAA Tournaments under the reign of legendary head coach C. Vivian Stringer. The shortened 2020-21 campaign, which ended up being Stringer’s last, had Rutgers at 14-5, ranking top 30 nationally in scoring offense and defense.
A lot has changed since Stringer opted to sit out the following season, then ultimately retired with more than 1,000 wins to her name. Coquese Washington is now entering her second season with a bold new strategy: double-digit players.
If I made anything clear last season, it’s that Rutgers had eight players on its roster. Yes, eight. Ocho. Not enough to have a five-on-five scrimmage in practice levels of players. One, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight.
As the days of last offseason came to a close and Rutgers still had less members rostered than Phillip Rivers has children, I was not optimistic that the Scarlet Knights would have a promising year one under Washington. And yet, in some ways, the project worked better than I ever thought possible.
Those ways don’t show up statistically. In most categories, including offense, defense and overall rating, Rutgers was the worst team in the Big Ten. But that was to be expected, what wasn’t expected was the Scarlet Knights finding five conference wins and finishing 11th in the standings.
Also unexpected? Truly unfathomable levels of health.
Having eight players made Rutgers’ margin for error extremely thin, and it meant that the team needed to have all eight players ready for all the games. Immediately, Kassondra Brown missed the opener against Hofstra. After that? 31 CONSECUTIVE GAMES WITHOUT A PLAYER BEING UNAVAILABLE.
I’m a broken record about this and I don’t care, that is unbelievable. The medical and training staffs deserve one billion dollars.
So, these eight players got 31 straight games to play with each other and to develop under Washington with ample in-game minutes. That’s important, and it sets the stage for a very intriguing year two.
Here's last year’s Rutgers roster, sorted by Her Hoop Stats win shares:
Departures
With a small roster, the hope was likely to keep as much of it in tact for another season. Rutgers has successfully done that, with only one more departure than what was required.
Kai Carter entered the portal after seeing her early starting spot replaced by Kaylene Smikle, which may or may not have been a good decision by Washington if you look at the numbers in the graphic above. While the Scarlet Knights never set the world on fire overall, Carter was the player that by far struggled the most, and she ended the season bottom 50 nationally in win shares (out of 3,382 eligible players).
The other loss was Abby Streeter, who finished out her collegiate career in Piscataway after two-year runs at Hartford and Rhode Island.
Returnees and Transfers
Rutgers retains every player that had a positive win share total last season, with the key returnee being sophomore guard Kaylene Smikle.
The Big Ten All-Freshman Team guard, and No. 18 entrant in my Hoopla 40, has the makings of Rutgers next true superstar, and she only got better as the year continued on. Her overall stats are impressive enough, but when looking at her stats strictly in Big Ten play, it’s clear just how much potential she has.
Smikle’s stats in Big Ten play (20 games):
20.0 PPG (4th in conference)
4.6 RPG (36th)
2.5 SPG (4th)
113 Free Throws Made (3rd)
All this was on improved shooting (42.4 percent) compared to her overall campaign, too. Truly special stuff from a first-year player on a struggling team.
Smikle also saved her best performances for the most important matchups. Her current career high of 29 points came against Maryland, with her next highest being a 28-point outing against Iowa. She scored 26 against Princeton and 25 against Indiana, a pair of teams that won NCAA Tournament games, and scored 20+ against Illinois (twice), Maryland (again) and Ohio State.
The lasting impression I have of Smikle is her pair of Big Ten Tournament performances, where she scored 26 points to take down Northwestern, then 22 against the Illini in a losing effort. She is an extremely talented player that has the right mentality to step up when she’s called upon. I have no doubts that she is good enough to be the focal point on a very good team if the Scarlet Knights can build around her.
That build starts with the four seniors around her. Chyna Cornwell was immensely important last season as a force on the glass, and she will be back for another season to do much of the same. The aforementioned Kassondra Brown was also important inside, and it gives Rutgers a solid interior duo to take the load off Smikle.
Awa Sidibe is another fifth-year player who did a little bit of everything for the Scarlet Knights last season. She’s a solid defender who can also facilitate the ball well, both of which are important for a Rutgers team that did not pass or defend particularly well last season. The final returning senior is Erica Lafayette, who started 28 games but never quite found her shooting stroke. The free throw percentage tells me there’s a chance she could find it in year four with the program.
Antonia Bates is the final returnee for Rutgers, and she played a smaller role as a freshman for Washington, but showed some solid skills as a rim protector, leading the team with 30 blocks.
Two transfers are also headed to Piscataway, headlined by guard Destiny Adams from North Carolina.
Adams carved out a sizable role for the Tar Heels last year and was a terrific defender, with her steal rate (4.2 percent) and block rate (5.2 percent) both leading the team. She was an excellent finisher inside but struggled from the perimeter, hitting just 11 of her 42 three attempts.
Regardless, Adams should earn a significant role with Rutgers from day one, and is a major addition next to Smikle in the backcourt.
The other addition is one I’m also a fan of, but in a different way. Mya Petticord had a troubling first season in Texas A&M, shooting 25.4 percent from the field. She is also a former top 100 prospect with loads of potential entering her sophomore season. There is so much room to grow for this player, and I think it’s well worth taking the risk on her at this point in Rutgers’ rebuild.
Freshmen
Washington’s two freshman signees gets Rutgers to 10 whole players on the roster this season. Growth!
Lisa Thompson is the major acquisition, ranking 60th in the class on ESPN with some remarkable numbers as a junior. She was a McDonald’s All-American nominee, earned an invite to USA’s U17 trials and should immediately fight for a major role with this team. I wouldn’t be surprised to see her follow a trajectory similar to Smikle’s, which would make her a starter around the midway point in the season.
The other get is Jillian Huerter, the sister of Kevin who plays for the Sacramento Kings. This isn’t relevant to much, but it reminds me of this incredible video, so I felt like including it.
Huerter was a solid scorer and rebounder in high school, and brings solid size to the guard position at 6-0. She seems to be brought in as a shooter, which would be a major addition to a roster lacking perimeter threats.
Outlook
Projected Starters
G - Awa Sidibe
G - Kaylene Smikle
G - Destiny Adams
F - Chyna Cornwell
C - Kassondra Brown
Projected Big Ten Finish: 12th
I could really talk myself into Rutgers surprising people if I painted with broad strokes, but the reality is that this team’s underlying numbers were extremely lackluster a season ago, and it was impressive that the Scarlet Knights even managed the win total they got.
With that in mind, you can take the rebuild in two ways: One, regression is coming, or two, these players found ways to win before they were even supposed to, so a boom is coming.
Unfortunately, a 12th-place projection would mean I’m choosing to believe the former, but that also has more to do with the amount of Big Ten talent than it does with Rutgers’ roster, because I do believe in what Coquese Washington has started.
Last year proved that Smikle is the star for this roster, and finding that in her first season is significant. Brown, Cornwell, Lafayette and Sidibe are all key vets that are back, and maybe Bates finds something more in year two. I also love the addition of Destiny Adams, who could explode in a huge way as a key contributor instead of coming off the bench.
The defense has to improve dramatically from last year, and Adams should help with that, but there will need to be large changes from the players that return as well. Cutting down the turnovers and improving the overall flow of the offense will also be big if the Scarlet Knights are to get better in Washington’s second season.
While postseason aspirations are likely still in the distance, seeing Smikle step further into her starring role with Adams, or maybe even Thompson, becoming a reliable No. 2, are the big things Rutgers should be hoping for this season. This ranking may not say it, but I am legitimately excited to see how this roster performs, and if the pair of transfers become long-term home runs.
Photo Credit: Courtesy of Rutgers Athletics
If you are interested in more Big Ten women’s basketball content like this, you can subscribe with the button at the top or bottom of the post, or share it with the button below. Thanks!