TCU Needs To Be A Playoff Lock
Plus Ryan Day's Disasterclass and a Top 25
The College Football Playoff Committee has always been a group that I have actively let make me very angry, and a certain situation feels destined to make me very angry once again.
This has been an extremely fun year of college football, with way more unpredictability at the top than usual. As it stands one week away from the playoff, Alabama, Clemson and Ohio State are all on the outside looking in, clearing out teams that have won six out of the eight championships in the playoff era.
Outside of Georgia, the defending champ, there are three teams in the current top four that have never even won a playoff game, and two teams that have never made it at all. That is fun, and it is the correct set of four teams, but there is still a conference championship week of football ahead that could lead to some decisions for the committee.
For those who don’t know, the top seven of the playoff looks like this:
Georgia
Michigan
TCU
USC
Ohio State
Alabama
Tennessee
In reality, only the top six likely have a chance of making it, but I throw Tennessee in here to make a point. Did Tennessee not beat Alabama this year? These teams have the same record, and one literally beat the other team. I have been inconsistent with this in my own rankings, but come on, with a playoff spot on the line, same records and close résumés, give the nod to the team that won the game.
Anyway, the committee has decided they aren’t going to do that, so the Vols are basically out. What is interesting about this year’s playoff is that there are no teams on the outside looking in that can improve their stock any further. Clemson at No. 9 is the closest team to the top four in a conference championship, and that ranking makes it clear that there’s not much the Tigers can do here.
But, all four teams currently in the playoff do have another game to play, which means they all have a chance to lose and sabotage themselves in a system that could punish you for being good enough to make a conference championship.
Think for a second about how stupid that is. Ohio State, Alabama and Tennessee lost their chances to win their conferences, and in return it might be a benefit to them. This weekend should only be a positive for Georgia, Michigan, TCU and USC, but instead they likely all wish they could just sit this week out to avoid the potential loss and stay in the playoff.
Even with losses, it’s hard to imagine Georgia or Michigan losing their spots. Both are undefeated teams with signature wins, and it would take something catastrophic for either of them to lose their spots, especially considering what the Wolverines did to Ohio State a few days ago.
A Ryan Day Tangent
Let’s talk about what the Wolverines did to Ohio State a few days ago.
I know that everyone has already talked through their feelings on both sides of this game. I know I’m not about to bring anything new to the table. I get all of that. I want to say it anyway.
Ryan Day was absolutely terrible against Michigan. By extension, Ohio State was terrible, but Day specifically had one of the worst head coaching performances I have seen since watching this team.
The Buckeyes came out dominant on offense and showed the ability to completely stifle Michigan’s rush attack, which was the crux of the Wolverine’s strategy. That should have been enough for a big-time victory over their largest rival.
Instead, Ohio State started to capitalize less and less on offense, and in return let Michigan completely torch its secondary with WIIIIIIIIDE OPEN touchdown connections from quarterback J.J. McCarthy.
McCarthy had thrown for under 200 yards in four of his last five games. McCarthy hadn’t thrown for more than two touchdowns since Oct. 8. His QBR hadn’t been above 90 since early September.
And yet: 263 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT, 92.6 QBR. And brother, those yards were as easy as the ones he threw against Colorado State.
That was bad, but Day’s playcalling on offense was the driving force in this. You will not win a Ohio State-Michigan game by being a coward. Jim Harbaugh settled for field goals up and down that 2019 game and the result was Day’s one and only win in The Game. Now, it’s Day running screens and tosses in third down situations instead of trusting his then-Heisman-favorite quarterback to get the yards.
Even a fake punt thought went by the wayside thanks to bad execution. Maybe a pass play with C.J. Stroud and one of the best receiving corps in the country would have been a better plan.
Ohio State was up in this game, and Michigan never waivered. When Michigan took the lead, Ohio State gave up, because it is coached by a man who has instilled that in them.
Ryan Day has 45 wins at Ohio State because Ohio State has the talent to win 10-plus games every year without breaking a sweat. Ryan Day has the five losses because teams that can even sort of match the talent can outcoach him no questions asked.
He was handed the keys to a team that had one loss to Michigan over the past 16 games, a team that hadn’t lost The Game in Columbus in over 20 years, and has them 1-2 in three attempts.
Ohio State will be a fine team under Day, who is well liked and knows how to do some offensive things well. But, whether it be the team lacking a certain fire or a certain ability to win under real, actual pressure, I don’t see Day ever getting them into a second gear needed to win a national championship.
Back to the matter at hand.
It seems clear USC will be out if it cannot beat Utah for the second time this season. I am more OK with this because it gives USC one more loss than Ohio State and the Buckeyes probably have a better résumé, but I still hat the principle it sets with championship losses.
TCU, on the other hand, should be a lock and likely isn’t. I’m going feral at the mere thought that TCU isn’t a lock. Here is why:
TCU is 12-0
TCU is first in the country in Strength of Record
TCU’s strength of schedule is 35th, higher than Georgia (47th) and Michigan (39th)
The Horned Frogs have a pair of ranked wins and have an all-around solid schedule of victories that match up more with the top two teams than they do to USC. But because TCU has not looked as dominant overall, and let’s be honest, because TCU is not a big-name program, the Horned Frogs likely have to beat Kansas State again to feel safe.
Beating any team twice is extremely difficult. Beating Kansas State, a top 10 team, twice is even harder.
I know that this is probably a bad reason, but it would also be nice for the committee to give TCU its due after the Horned Frogs were so severely shafted in the inaugural playoff season.
A 2014 TCU Tangent
For those who don’t remember, TCU was the playoffs No. 3 team on Dec. 2, the week right before the final rankings. Florida State was No. 4, Ohio State was No. 5 and Baylor was No. 6. At the time, the Big 12 lacked a conference championship game, so TCU played a regular season game against a bad Iowa State team, while Florida State and Ohio State played for ACC and Big Ten crowns. Baylor, another Big 12 team, also played a regular season game, but against No. 9 Kansas State.
Here were the results that week:
No. 3 TCU beats Iowa State 55-3
No. 4 Florida State beats No. 11 Georgia Tech 37-35
No. 5 Ohio State beats No. 13 Wisconsin 59-0
No. 6 Baylor beats No. 9 Kansas State 38-27
Great, every team did their job! How did the committee rank these teams?
Florida State
Ohio State
Baylor
TCU
TCU, who had no power over the Big 12 deciding to not have a championship game, fell three spots after winning a game by 52 points. There’s a reason for each placement sure. Florida State is an undefeated ACC champion, so there’s no way you can take then out. Ohio State beat a top 15 team by 59 points with a quarterback making his first start. Baylor won a share of the Big 12 and gave TCU its only loss of the season.
So yeah, I don’t know what the committee should have done, and the committee looked like geniuses when Ohio State ended up winning the damn thing. But TCU went 11-1, was ranked third going into the final week and then completely handled business, then fell three spots in the poll. Just give them the damn spot this year man.
This whole debate can be avoided if TCU and USC win, obviously, but the fact that both teams have to sweat it out with a national championship opportunity on the line is deeply unfair. Also do not reward Ryan Day for his crimes.
Top 25
As said above, I was not giving enough credit to head-to-head wins. Everything after the top five is a mess anyway so I tried very hard to properly reward teams that won over teams near them.
1.) Georgia (-)
2.) Michigan (-)
3.) TCU (+1)
4.) USC (+1)
5.) Ohio State (-2)
6.) Tennessee (+4)
7.) Alabama (+1)
8.) Washington (+3)
9.) Penn State (+3)
10.) Clemson (-4)
11.) Florida State (+4)
12.) LSU (-5)
13.) Oregon (-4)
14.) Utah (-)
15.) Tulane (+3)
16.) Kansas State (+1)
17.) UCLA (+3)
18.) Oregon State (+7)
19.) Troy (+4)
20.) UTSA (+4)
21.) South Alabama (NEW)
22.) James Madison (NEW)
23.) Coastal Carolina (-10)
24.) North Carolina (-8)
25.) Boise State (NEW)
Some thoughts:
Had a little debate about putting Michigan at No. 1, but Georgia’s win over Tennessee is comparable and I think the Bulldogs have generally been just a little better.
Tennessee I already explained (beat Bama), but shoutout Washington. Michael Penix Jr. has been a total blast over there and should be a Heisman finalist. I would love to see him end his career in the Rose Bowl.
Florida State beat LSU this year and are just outside the Top 10 after one hell of a bounce-back season. Mike Norvell seemed dead in the water, but he’s done a heck of a job.
Kansas State is a great team and I have no problem with their actual ranking in the top 10. But the Wildcats lost to Tulane and the teams were in similar spots for me so, Green Wave advantage.
Oregon State took down the Ducks and moved up a sizable amount for it. The Beavers have been another great story this season and were a part of making the Pac-12 so damn fun to watch.
Lots of G5 love at the bottom here, specifically in the Sun Belt. I decided to only pick teams with nine wins or more. Losing four games should not be rewarded with a top 25 placement unless absolutely needed. These teams all won the games and were very good football teams, so that gets rewarded.
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