Terps Surging, Lions Struggling
On red-hot Ohio State, Maryland's big week, ice-cold Penn State and more tourney talk
In case you missed it, history has happened since last Monday.
Caitlin Clark scored a career-high 49 points in a win over Michigan on Thursday. That also happens to be an Iowa program record, and the first eight of those points made Clark Division I’s all-time leading scorer for women’s basketball.
I wrote some words on that Friday morning if you’d like to read those, but we have just two weeks left in the regular season, so the content must continue forward.
Last Week’s Hoopla:
Since looking at the Big Ten’s NCAA Tournament hopes a few weeks ago, some things have changed. One thing that hasn’t is that this conference continues to swarm around the bubble, with at least three teams hanging right on the edge of an at-large bid.
NCAA Tournament Locks
Ohio State
Last week, Nebraska earned a gigantic résumé boost with the win over Iowa, then immediately got housed by Ohio State in its next game. Fortunately for the Cornhuskers, this felt more like the Buckeyes firing on all cylinders than vice versa.
After losing 2 of 3 in December, Ohio State has won 12 straight. For awhile, it felt like the Buckeyes were doing just enough, with five straight single-digit victories against a wide range of opponents. The last three wins, two of which were on the road, have felt different. Ohio State is now blowing out teams by 24, 15 and, against Nebraska, 33 points as the defense has become suffocating.
In the Buckeyes’ 80-47 win over the Cornhuskers, they forced *30* Nebraska turnovers. Not a single Nebraska player scored in double digits. Ohio State shot 43 percent from deep. This team is playing outrageously good basketball right now, and is in serious conversation to get into that 1-seed line.
Ohio State is playing the best basketball in the Big Ten at this moment in time, and the Buckeyes control their destiny in the race for the regular season crown. That still could very well come down to the team’s final game on the schedule, which a road matchup against Iowa.
Iowa
Even with the Nebraska loss, the Hawkeyes remain a team right on the cusp of a 1-seed. They are fifth in the NET, have only three losses on the year and continue to put up an unbelievable amount of points on any night. Iowa dropped 106 points in the win over Michigan, but gets a huge test coming this week.
Indiana
The Big Ten’s top three is clear, but Iowa can separate into a top two if it can finish off the season sweep against the Hoosiers on Thursday. Indiana has been rock solid all season, but has not been able to take down a truly elite team to bolster the résumé.
A win against the Hawkeyes changes the narrative entirely. Unless it was followed by a surprise loss, it would make Indiana’s hopes of a Top 16 ranking feel relatively solid. The Hoosiers were listed as 15th in the NCAA’s initial Top 16 reveal, so they could use the boost for some comfort.
Near Locks
Michigan State
The Spartans are similar to Indiana in that they lack a big win to help bolster what they’ve accomplished this season. But in the same breath, they are also without any terrible losses, and at 18-7, they have likely done enough to get back into the dance.
Two straight defeats to Indiana and Ohio State did little to concern me, especially after Michigan State managed to go into Ann Arbor and finish off the sweep of Michigan on Sunday. Robyn Fralick has done such a tremendous job with this roster, and it looks like the Spartans could very well be a 7- or 8-seed at this rate.
Nebraska
I feel relatively good about saying Nebraska has probably done enough.
The Cornhuskers are 17-9, rank 30th in the NET and have that Iowa win as a boost. It’s been a choppy Big Ten slate for them at times, but they’ve won 3 of their last 4 and have a friendly schedule to end the season.
Quickly on Nebraska, Alexis Markowski had a 20-point, 21-rebound showing in the win over Purdue. She has made a big leap in her third year with the program and has really taken on No. 1 responsibilities as of late to help the team get off the bubble. I also wanted to shout out Logan Nissley, who scored 18 points on 6-of-10 shooting in her first collegiate start. She has given Nebraska big minutes as a freshman recently and could help with a late run.
The Bubble
Penn State
A 6-5 run in these 11 games doesn’t even feel that bad for Penn State. There are a lot of reasonable outcomes in here. But going from 16-5 to 16-10 in the month of February is a nightmare, and it keeps the Nittany Lions firmly on the bubble.
It’s hard to know what is happening here. Losing to Michigan and Iowa was understandable. Continuing that losing spell with Wisconsin and Illinois was less so. The 15-point road loss to Maryland would have been forgiven in a vacuum, but not after the two weeks Penn State has had before it.
What’s happened? The loss of Tay Valladay is the easiest explainer: Penn State was 6-0 with Valladay and Ashley Owusu available, and the Lions are 0-5 since Valladay’s season-ending injury. But I also think Penn State’s other stars have struggled for different reasons.
Stats for Ashley Owusu, Makenna Marisa and Shay Ciezki, last five games:
Owusu: 16.4 PPG | 42.9 FG% | 18.9 3PT% | 3.4/4.8 AST/TO | 27.4 MPG
Marisa: 10.8 PPG | 30.6 FG% | 32.1 3PT% | 0.8/1.6 AST/TO | 23.6 MPG
Ciezki: 8.8 PPG | 41.5 FG% | 34.6 3PT% | 2.0/2.0 AST/TO | 25.8 MPG
Nothing here is dramatic, but a couple key stats stand out for me. Firstly, Marisa’s role has been diminished, and she’s not hitting the opportunities she is getting at a rate we are used to. Not sure which is the cause of which, but Marisa’s been a star for this team for so long I would expect these to rebound.
Ciezki’s role has also been inconsistent, as she’s had an 18-point and a 2-point game during this losing streak. She’s continually been a strong scorer and I think more of the offense could go through her. Finally, Owusu’s turnovers are a concern. She is averaging nearly five turnovers per game during the losing streak.
All of these things have collided at once, and now the Nittany Lions need to find their groove again. They play Ohio State, Purdue and Minnesota to end the year. A 2-1 record there is essential to feel any sort of comfort.
Maryland
The vibes are better in College Park, where the Terps have won three straight games to get to 15-10.
ESPN most recently projected Maryland as the Last Team Out, but I disagree with them. I think the Terps are currently in the Field of 68, as teams with a similar record and much less difficult schedule should fall under what this team has done.
Maryland’s recent stretch of wins has come in thanks to a much stronger defensive effort. The Terps have allowed 62 points or less in all three games, something they hadn’t done against a Big Ten opponent under all year prior to this run.
Jakia Brown-Turner has been a huge reason for this turnaround. In earlier defeats, Brown-Turner was Maryland’s top scoring threat, breaking 20 points in five straight ahead of this win streak. Her scoring was down in the Rutgers and Illinois wins, but she added 10 rebounds in both wins. She then had 32 points, 7 rebounds and 3 steals against Penn State.
Brown-Turner came to Maryland after a lengthy and impressive college career at NC State. The Terps have needed that experience, and Brown-Turner has delivered massively there.
Michigan
The Wolverines are the team that will likely decide if the Big Ten gets eight into the dance. They are currently 16-11, but have lost 5 of their last 7 and have three regular seasons to go: at Northwestern, at Ohio State, vs. Purdue.
Those are two winnable games along with a chance to sweep the Buckeyes. If they somehow go 3-0, they’re going to be in. But the expected 2-1 finish would keep the Wolverines on the bubble heading into the conference tournament.
Michigan’s a hard team to gauge. The Wolverines are often strong defensively, unless they aren’t, and that’s when they can be historically bad (perfect first quarter by Indiana, 49 points by Clark, etc.) Being ranked 41st in Her Hoop Stats defensive rating while allowing 1.04 points per scoring attempt (308th nationally) tells a story.
Kim Barnes Arico has utilized a deep bench a lot of this season, and Michigan can beat you with a variety of weapons because of that. I would like to see more Laila Phelia ball down the stretch, though, as she nearly got Michigan to take down the Spartans with 23 points on 8-of-13 shooting.
Still Fighting
Minnesota
The Gophers were in great shape a month ago, but a six-game losing skid has likely dropped them out of the NCAA Tournament picture for now.
The streak ended on Saturday with an 88-63 win over Northwestern, and I’m hoping the 27-point effort from freshman Grace Grocholski ignites something in this roster, because the tourney is still absolutely within reach.
At 15-10, and with a pretty easy non-conference slate, Minnesota will need to finish strong, and games against Nebraska and Penn State on the road provide an opportunity. Win one or both of those, along with a home game against Wisconsin, and it may just take a few Big Ten Tournament wins to get there.
What To Watch
Wisconsin at Minnesota, 2/20 (Tuesday), 7 p.m., BTN
As said above, Minnesota needs wins. The easiest one left on the schedule is here, but the Badgers have been playing well lately. The Serah Williams matchup inside is daunting, but the Gophers need to get over this hurdle to stay in the bubble picture.
***IOWA AT INDIANA, 2/22 (THURSDAY), 8 P.M., PEACOCK***
Game of the week. If Iowa wins in Bloomington, we are basically on a collision course to Ohio State-Iowa deciding the regular season champ on the final day. If Indiana evens the series here, it would just take an Ohio State loss prior to the Iowa game to give the Hoosiers a real shot. Absolutely without a doubt watch this one.
Minnesota at Nebraska, 2/24 (Saturday), 5 p.m., B1G+
It’s a big week for Minnesota. Nebraska, Ohio State rout aside, has played excellently recently, and is now looking at getting a Top-8 seed. But, if Minnesota can win this one in Lincoln, the gears really start turning for a NCAA Tournament chance.
Maryland at Ohio State, 2/25 (Sunday), 2 p.m., BTN
Monitoring this one closely. On the surface, the Buckeyes should have this one, but Maryland might be coming into this one winners of four straight. I think the Terps may be able to match up with Ohio State well, and the teams were pretty evenly matched in College Park. I think this might be a banger.
Purdue at Wisconsin, 2/25 (Sunday), 4 p.m., BTN
I’m giving Wisconsin two games in here as well, because the Badgers have a real chance to finish above .500 for the first time since 2010-11. It hasn’t been a meteoric rise for Wisconsin under Marisa Moseley, but we are seeing signs of growth, especially around Williams, who has been a joy to watch this year.
Photo Credit: Maryland Athletics
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