One Week To Decide It All
The race for the crown, or for a double bye, is still in complete chaos
Well folks, we made it. There is just one week of regular season left, and close to nothing is decided for the Big Ten Tournament.
Let’s try and break down what can happen.
As it stands, the top five teams in the conference are separated by one game. Past that, they are separated by 6.7 percentage points, which is the ultimate tiebreaker in COVID times when teams have different amounts of games played.
Below, I go through what each of these top five teams are looking at in this closing stretch, and how each one of them could end on top.
Michigan
Current Record: 12-3 (.800 win percentage)
Rank: 1
Remaining Schedule: 2/24 vs. Michigan State, 2/27 @ Iowa
Best Possible Finish: 14-3 (82.4%)
The Wolverines are the only team here that has complete control over their own destiny to claim the top spot. Beat Michigan State and Iowa, and the Wolverines are your No. 1 seed in the Big Ten tourney.
That will be easier said than done. The first game is against a Spartans team that has already upset Michigan once this season, and is still in desperate need of another big victory to boost their NCAA Tournament résumé. But, this in-state game will be a home one for the Wolverines, and Michigan is still a perfect 13-0 at home, most recently taking down Maryland 71-59.
If they get past Sparty, the Wolverines will have to travel to take on Caitlin Clark and the Hawkeyes, who may also be in the position to win the conference if other games go according to plan. The last time Michigan and Iowa faced off, it was in one of the games of the season: A 98-90 Michigan win despite 46 points by Clark, many of which came on the deepest threes you will ever see.
Her Hoop Stats gives Michigan a 37.5% chance to go 2-0 and lock up this race for good. If that doesn’t happen, the door swings wide open, though the Wolverines are still in it with a 1-1 week.
Likelihood of Michigan earning the 1 seed: 53.6%
Ohio State
Current Record: 12-4 (75.0%)
Rank: 3
Remaining Schedule: 2/24 vs. Penn State, 2/27 @ Michigan State
Best Possible Finish: 14-4 (77.8%)
By the numbers, Michigan and Indiana are unlikely to win out. If neither do, Ohio State is the next team up.
The Buckeyes have a far easier schedule remaining, starting with what should be an easy win over Penn State at home (90.8% chance of win), and a less easy, but still favorable road game against Michigan State (61.3%) on Sunday.
Combined, Ohio State has a 55.7% chance of winning out. So, while the Buckeyes don’t control their destiny, the odds like their chances of ending on top.
Likelihood of Ohio State earning the 1 seed: 31.4%
Iowa
Current Record: 11-4 (73.3%)
Rank: 5
Remaining Schedule: 2/21 vs. Indiana, 2/24 @ Rutgers, 2/27 vs. Michigan
Best Possible Finish: 14-4 (77.8%)
I don’t know if there are Big Ten regular season title odds on any betting site, but I think Iowa would be the hypothetical best bang-for-your-buck option considering that I was surprised how realistic its chances are.
If the Hawkeyes have a great week and go 3-0, they just need an Ohio State loss to be at the top, as the Buckeyes hold the tiebreaker with their 92-88 victory over the Hawkeyes. Yes, Iowa’s schedule is tough, but it gets the two teams at home that it needed to down the stretch.
Believe it or not, Her Hoop Stats actually favors Iowa in each game left: 62.2% vs. Indiana, 86.8% @ Rutgers and 57.1% vs. Michigan. Combined, the Hawkeyes sit at 30.8% likely to go 3-0.
Iowa so often felt a step behind the elites of the conference this year, despite Clark’s best efforts. But the Hawkeyes have beaten most of everyone below them and finally got their first ranked win last week against the Hoosiers. Now, there’s a realistic shot at going for the top spot.
Likelihood of Iowa earning the 1 seed: 7.7%
Indiana
Current Record: 11-3 (78.6%)
Rank: 2
Remaining Schedule: 2/21 @ Iowa, 2/25 @ Maryland
Best Possible Finish: 13-3 (81.3%)
The Hoosiers had a brutal week for their title chances, losing big to Nebraska on the road before coming home to lose to Iowa in a game that was far less close than the final score indicates.
Despite that, Indiana still has a very good shot at first place if it can take care of business in the final week. That is a big, big if though.
Her Hoop Stats puts the likelihood of a 2-0 week against two ranked opponents on the road at just 9.8%. But, if it happens, Indiana is at the top if Michigan falters.
The Hoosiers did have some good news this past week. Mackenzie Holmes returned to the court after more than a month away, and though she did not look herself (14 points in two games), she is too good to stay down, and it’s only a matter of time until she’s back in form.
If Holmes can make that happen this week, Indiana could prove itself as the best team in the Big Ten at just the right time.
Likelihood of Indiana earning the 1 seed: 6.2%
Maryland
Current Record: 12-4 (75.0%)
Rank: 4
Remaining Schedule: 2/25 vs. Indiana
Best Possible Finish: 13-4 (76.5%)
Maryland’s second loss to Michigan on Sunday was basically the backbreaker for its chances at yet another crown. This team is still very talented and could easily make a run in the conference tournament, but the Terrapins are really just trying to stay in the top four to get the double bye in said tourney.
Unfortunately for Maryland, it has just one game left on the schedule, and it isn’t an easy one. A home matchup against Indiana should be one heck of a game, and Her Hoop Stats favors the Terrapins by a decent margin in it (74.0%).
Win that game, and the double bye should be secured (Indiana or Iowa has to lose, Michigan or Iowa has to lose, etc). If Maryland wants to make magic happen and win the regular season title, here’s how that happens:
Beat Indiana (74.0%)
Iowa loses at least one game that isn’t the Michigan game (46.0%)
Ohio State loses at least one game (44.3%)
Michigan loses both games (7.3%)
Likelihood of Maryland earning the 1 seed: 1.1%
That isn’t… nothing, so there’s that! If Michigan State goes supernova in a fight to make the NCAA Tournament, beating both the Buckeyes and Wolverines, the odds go up exponentially to 19.4%.
So if you’re a Terrapins fan, go nuts for Sparty this week. But also if you’re a Terrapins fan, just let another team win a damn regular season. You’ve done it enough and it’s just selfish at this point.
Here are the numbers in chart form, if that is what you prefer:
What To Watch
Literally every game I put above. This is a historically entertaining finish for Big Ten supremacy. Look through the schedule, see which ones you can catch and strap in for what is about to be an immensely fun week of basketball.
If you are interested in more Big Ten women’s basketball content like this, you can subscribe with the button at the top or bottom of the post, or share it with the button below. Thanks!