Four Teams, Zero Losses
How the Big Ten's remaining undefeated teams have made it this far
Publishing note: There will be no women’s basketball Hoopla next Monday (12/23). I am planning to still have Hoopla for that week, but it would be on a different topic, and on something that I try to do every year, wink wink hint hint.
Last Week’s Hoopla:
There are just nine undefeated programs remaining nationally, and four of them reside in the Big Ten. All of them are also exactly 10-0.
As I prepare to take an extended break from discussing the conference before conference play kicks off for real, I felt it important to look through each of these teams to see how they’ve gotten to these starts, and how much I believe they can each keep it going.
Teams are in NET Ranking order as of this morning. I’m also including their AP Poll spot, as well as their Her Hoop Stats and Bart Torvik national placements.
UCLA
NET - 5th | AP - 1st | HHS - 4th | Torvik - 6th
The Bruins are the team to beat until proven otherwise, both in the Big Ten and at large. That’s what happens when you hand South Carolina a 15-point loss.
The rest of UCLA’s schedule hasn’t mattered much, outside of that one massive victory, most of the others have been lopsided and to lesser competition. A 101-52 smackdown of Arkansas was impressive, but close-ish wins over Louisville and Washington have shown the Bruins are still vulnerable to drop a game to the right opponent.
Lauren Betts (19.8 PPG, 10.0 RPG, 2.2 BPG) has been the force of nature inside that was promised, and is the big reason UCLA leads the country in both total rebound rate (62.0%) and offensive rebound rate (46.4%).
The Bruins have rotated starter around Betts, and their depth has been proven with seven other players averaging between 7.0 and 11.9 PPG. Of those eight players, SIX of them are shooting north of 50 percent from the field. One of those is freshman Elina Aarnisalo (8.7 PPG, 5.7 APG, 1.2 SPG) who has been nothing short of a game changer right away for this team.
Aarnisalo is second on the team with 26.3 MPG, and that’s because she can spread the floor to all the weapons, averaging nearly six assists per game. On top of that, Aarinaslo is also shooting 54.5% overall and 40.9% from three while averaging 8.7 PPG. She’s not being asked to take an abundance of shots, but she’s been huge in her role and is yet another first-year player making a huge impact.
Michigan State
NET - 12th | AP - 15th | HHS - 13th | Torvik - 25th
The Spartans were early-season NET darlings, ranking as a top five team in the country early on while they were busy beating teams by 50-to-60 points a night. The schedule got tougher and the NET ranking fell, but Michigan State still is here with the key “0” in the loss column.
Second half comebacks have been the name of the game for Sparty’s close wins. A 27-6 run while down by 16 against Cal and a 15-2 run down eight to Vanderbilt on back-to-back days proved to me this team can grind out wins when necessary, and this unit proved that once again in the Iowa win yesterday. The Hawkeyes led 58-49 early in the fourth, just in time for Michigan State to go on a 14-0 run to take the lead that it would not give up again.
The 68-66 victory over the Hawkeyes saw both teams shoot sub-40 percent from the field, there were 48 combined fouls and the Spartans missed 11 free throws. It was a great game but a nasty one, and yet Michigan State found the win anyway.
Julia Ayrault (16.7 PPG, 8.0 RPG, 1.8 SPG, 1.6 BPG) is a special, special player, maybe one of the most versatile in the country if she can continue to shoot 43.3 percent from deep. Adding Grace VanSlooten (15.3 PPG, 8.2 GP, 1.6 BPG), has made Michigan State increasingly frustrating to deal with on both ends of the floor.
Robyn Fralick’s unit has again delivered offensively, averaging 89.1 PPG thus far, fifth in the nation, but they are also shutting opponents down this season. Michigan State’s 0.96 points per play is 10th in the NCAA. Michigan State’s defense is holding opponents to 0.61 PPP, which ranks fifth. This group is balanced, but it also has real star power. The Spartans also can, and will, grind you down with trips to the foul line (281 FT attempts, third in NCAA) when necessary.
Ohio State
NET - 14th | AP - 11th | HHS - 10th | Torvik - 8th
There’s a lot to love about how the Buckeyes have looked to start this season, it just hasn’t come against much in the way of marquee competition.
A scare against Belmont and a rather dominant nine-point win over Illinois are Ohio State’s two non-blowouts to this point, but tougher games are coming very soon, so what was the key to winning both of those closer matchups?
In two words? Cotie McMahon. She has missed nearly half of the Buckeyes’ games so far, but she not only played in both of these, but she was the best player on the floor. She led all scorers in both games for a combined 46 points on 15-of-31 shooting, including 4-of-10 from three. McMahon added five rebounds in both wins, and maybe most importantly, had four total fouls and two total turnovers between both contests.
All of this is to say I’ve been extremely impressed with McMahon’s six starts (18.2 PPG, 44.0 3PT%). Her rebounds have fallen, but she’s also nearly cut her turnovers in half from 2.5 to 1.3 per game. The three-ball is hitting for the first time in her collegiate career as well, which makes her about impossible to guard.
Ohio State’s ceiling this year depends on McMahon and Jaloni Cambridge (13.9 PPG, 4.4 APG, 2.6 SPG) hitting theirs, and early signs say that the ceiling could be pretty darn high. Chance Gray (15.8 PPG, 1.9 SPG, 42.3 3PT%) and Elsa Lemmilä (6.4 PPG, 7.2 RPG, 2.5 BPG) have also both been tremendous early on, and those extra threats make the Buckeyes a real scary team to deal with right now.
The offense has been great so far, but this Ohio State roster could be as scary as it has ever been on defense. So far, they average 15.0 SPG (3rd in NCAA), 5.3 BPG (17th) and opponents are forcing 27.3 TOPG (2nd). Combined with the dismal 8.7 assists these teams are outputting, the Buckeyes are allowing a 0.32 assist-to-turnover ratio. That is the best in the NCAA, and would be the best defensive assist-to-turnover ratio in the entire Her Hoop Stats database (since 2011-12) over a whole season.
Maryland
NET - 19th | AP - 8th | HHS - 24th | Torvik - 23rd
For the first time in what feels like ever, Maryland had a non-conference schedule that didn’t feel outrageously stacked, though a Jan. 19 matchup with Texas is quietly waiting in the bushes.
For now, the Terps have a lot of blowouts, solid wins against George Mason and at Purdue and one fantastic five-point win over a Duke team that is currently ninth in the AP Poll. That victory is going to continue to hold a lot of weight, especially as long as the undefeated streak pushes on.
The primary scoring duties have, to this point, gone to Kaylene Smikle (17.4 PPG, 1.5 SPG, 45.7 3PT%), who is playing the most efficient basketball of her career. That’s likely true for much of the roster, whose 50.4 FG% ranks fifth in the country. The shots are falling, the ball is flying on offense (17.1 APG, 29th in NCAA) and the opportunities are flooding in thanks to a 60.7% rebound rate (4th in NCAA).
That rebounding dominance is a big rise from last year’s team, which ranked outside the top 100 in total rate. Transfer adds Saylor Poffenbarger (10.4 PPG, 8.8 RPG) and Christina Dalce (9.8 PPG, 8.2 RPG) have been the key reason why, and they make for a nice mix with Dalce’s offensive (3.8 oRPG) and Poffenbarger’s defensive (6.7 dRPG) prowess.
The depth of talent on this roster is going to make a world of difference for Brenda Frese late in the season. It may also make a big difference in, say, 12 days, when Maryland hosts Michigan State on Dec. 28. Oh yeah, that game should be special.
What To Watch
Non-Conference
No. 20 Michigan vs. No. 10 Oklahoma, 12/17, 9:30 p.m., ESPN2
Michigan’s first game against a Top 10 team nearly ended in an upset over South Carolina. To do so here, the Wolverines will have to slow down an Oklahoma team that scores one million points a game (92.6 PPG) by flying up and down the court (7th in pace). It’s going to be a fantastic neutral site test for this young Michigan squad.
Northwestern vs. UNLV, 12/18, noon, B1G+
Northwestern vs. Charleston, 12/20, 1 p.m., ESPN+
Big week for the Wildcats ahead. They host a terrific mid-major program in UNLV, then face another good one in Philadelphia two days later. The Rebels are still a solid team, but look more vulnerable than in recent seasons, but even one win this week would go a long way.
No. 15 Michigan State vs. Alabama, 12/20, 4:30 p.m., BallerTV
Dec. 20 is a big day for the Big Ten, and the Spartans go into the West Palm Beach Classic with a chance to head into conference play undefeated. The Crimson Tide are the first team out of the AP Poll right now and utilize an extremely well-balanced starting five, as well as Ohio State transfer Diana Collins. I don’t have BallerTV, but I recommend keeping track of this one.
No. 11 Ohio State vs. Stanford, 12/20, 8:30 p.m., FS1
Much like the Spartans, this is Ohio State’s final major test to get to the thick of the Big Ten slate with a zero in the loss column. Stanford is in a big of a transition year, but the Cardinal are still plenty dangerous, especially with how they shoot the three (42.6 3PT%, 2nd in NCAA).
No. 1 UCLA vs. Creighton, 12/20, 11 p.m., FS1
The Bluejays have won seven straight after the 1-2 start and are riding the duo of Lauren Jensen (19.9 PPG) and Morgan Maly (16.6 PPG) on offense to do it. This is a game you’d expect UCLA to handle, but Creighton is a very good opponent that should test the Bruins at the least.
No. 23 Nebraska at No. 17 Georgia Tech, 12/21, 5:30 p.m., ACC Network
Georgia Tech is one of those five other remaining undefeated teams. They also just took down North Carolina on the road. Nebraska will have to win the rebounding battle and stay poised on offense to pull an upset here, both areas that Tech has specifically impressed in thus far.
No. 7 USC at No. 4 UConn, 12/21, 8 p.m., FOX
I mean what an unbelievable banger this is. Two of the country’s best teams, and the two largest stars. The defensive war this game may turn into should bring the fireworks on its own, but I guess JuJu Watkins vs. Paige Bueckers could be good, too.
Conference
ALL 18 TEAMS IN ACTION THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. SO MANY FANTASTIC MATCHUPS ACROSS THE BOARD. BE THERE.
Photo Credit: Maryland Athletics
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