2024-25 Team Preview: USC
How dominant can the Trojans immediately be as they enter the Big Ten?
Dear reader, we have reached the mountain top.
It is the 18th post in the 16th week of posting, and we are here with the preview for Team No. 1 for my projected Big Ten standings. That also means we are ONE WEEK AWAY from regular season games (!!!)
We’ve waited this long to talk about the best of the best, so I’m going to get right into it. Shorter Hoopla of games to watch in Week 1 on Thursday, Preseason Hoopla 40 on Monday. Let’s Go.
Last Preview:
Overview
USC women’s basketball is a bit new to this “significant amounts of success” thing, at least in recent memory. After back-to-back national championships in the early 1980s, the Trojans slowly lost their form. They were still a relatively consistent NCAA Tournament team for a bit and went to two Elite Eights in the early 90s, but then the well dried up.
Coming into last season, USC was fresh off a 21-10 record and first round tourney exit. That was USC’s first time in the NCAA Tournament since 2013-14. The most recent Trojans tourney entry prior to that came in 2006. It has been a long time since USC has seen consistent winning from its women’s basketball team.
That looks ready to change after 2023-24.
In Year 3 under head coach Lindsay Gottlieb (Cleveland Cavaliers legend btw), USC won 29 games, its most in a season since 1985-86. The Trojans were a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament and went to their first Elite Eight in 30 years, falling to UConn there 80-73.
All in all, it was a fantastic season for Gottlieb and co. USC improved dramatically on offense and were a dominant force of nature for nearly the entirety of the season. If there was a lapse, it came at the turn of the calendar year: USC lost 4 of 8 games from Dec. 30-Jan. 28, the last of which was a home loss to Washington. That seemed to ignite a fire in the unit, because USC went 15-2 the reason the way.
USC was a very well-rounded team statistically, doing well in most categories. The overall shooting percentage was below average for the Pac-12, but that was less of a factor thanks to a quicker pace, a lack of turnovers (14.4% TO rate, 11th in NCAA) and solid three-point shooting.
Defensively, the Trojans took a slight step back from an impressive 2022-23 campaign (55.1 PPG allowed, 13th in NCAA). That was also partially due to the pace increasing (297th in 22-23), as opponents still shot less than 40 percent against USC on the season.
The stats really don’t tell the whole story on USC, who were often able to play above those numbers because of who was on its roster.
Here's last year’s USC roster, sorted by Her Hoop Stats win shares:
Departures
USC loses seven players from last season, three of which are through the portal. There are some depth pieces transferring out that will be worth watching for this season, but the four core losses will be the big area for Gottlieb to figure out heading into 24-25.
McKenzie Forbes was such an excellent addition to last year’s roster. Coming over from Harvard, Forbes perfectly fit into a secondary scoring role and brought some much-needed volume three-point shooting to the table. It was an extremely similar story for Kayla Padilla, a transfer over from Penn who shot the lights out with her role lessened. Or how about Kaitlyn Davis, the Columbia transfer who started 24 games and was one of USC’s best interior scorers and rebounders?
That trio of Ivy League transfers was a bit of genius from Gottlieb. All three players filled that experienced veteran role exactly how the Trojans would have hoped, and it gave USC some excellent scoring choices around The Star We Are Almost Ready To Finally Talk About.
Taylor Bigby is the other core member of last year’s rotation that will not be returning after a transfer to TCU. Padilla, Forbes and Bigby were USC’s three best three-point shooters by a wide margin — no other Trojan with more than 20 attempts shot above 32 percent from deep last season. That will be the big area that needs to be addressed by the 24-25 roster in order to live up to the lofty expectations ahead.
Returning Players
Finally, it is time to talk about JuJu Watkins.
USC had its best season in at least 30 years last year. Everything I said above is true. But the real *why* that happened is Watkins. She was the No. 1 prospect in the 2024 class and played like it from literally Day 1 when she helped the Trojans take down Ohio State.
Remember that skid I discussed? Four losses in eight games, the last being a home loss to Washington? Do you know how they broke out of that skid? It was with a ROAD win over STANFORD in which Watkins scored FIFTY-ONE of USC’s 67 points.
True freshman JuJu Watkins scored 76.1 percent of USC’s points in a road win over a Stanford team that had not lost at home in over a calendar year.
There’s so much to say about Watkins, but that feels like what you need to know. Watkins did that and it didn’t feel like a fluke, it felt like something she was always capable of doing. She is a natural scorer who can find a bucket at every level of the floor. She is tremendous at getting to the rim and to the foul line. She can nail a contested mid-range, she can hit the three. She can absolutely be more efficient at those last things, but considering the amount of weight she had on the offense last year as a first-year player, the results she helped USC achieve were that much more remarkable.
If you know anything about Watkins, it has to be the scoring, but look at how she filled the box score. She’s a great rebounder and a capable passer. On defense, Watkins was not merely passable, but was one of USC’s best defenders who ranked Top 50 nationally in total steals AND blocks. Her 1.9 defensive win shares were 28th best in the country.
Watkins is the type of all-encompassing superstar that can get a team to No. 1 on a list like this on her own, but she’s also coming back with her top co-star. Rayah Marshall was less of an offensive force than Forbes, but she was a constant double-double threat who was also phenomenal on the defensive side of the floor. She should be in for a huge season after another year of working with Watkins and as new faces join the team.
Deeper on the bench, Clarice Akunwafo and Malia Samuels are worth watching for. Akunwafo was not overly involved in her action last season, but she did shoot over 60 percent from the floor when called upon. The real sell with her is as a rebounder and defender: Akunwafo averaged 5.0 offensive rebounds, 10.8 total rebounds and 3.3 blocks per 36 minutes across 33 games. She should be a useful interior option regardless of the new faces.
Finally, Samuels doesn’t have an eye-popping stat to hold onto from last season, but it’s worth remembering that she was also a Top 50 prospect in the 2024 class. Watkins is one of a kind, but another year of development could make Samuels a name to watch for in this rotation.
USC returns JuJu Watkins, who is the National Player of the Year favorite. USC returns Rayah Marshall, who averaged a double-double and was one of the nation’s top shot-blockers. But the Trojans did lose a sizable amount of depth in the process.
What did Gottlieb do with that information?
Incoming Players
Lord.
USC brings in “just” two transfers along with SEVEN freshmen in one of the most mind-boggling classes outside of Connecticut and South Carolina borders I have ever seen.
Let’s start with the transfers because, even as a two-person class, it has an argument as the best haul in the country. Kiki Iriafen did not often get the credit she deserved at Stanford playing alongside Cameron Brink. This is clear because Iriafen gets the rare honor of being one of the 15 players last season to have more win shares than Watkins. Iriafen is a menace inside the arc, hitting nearly 55 percent of her attempts while averaging close to 20 and 11 per game. She is also a decent passer, was part of an excellent Cardinal defense and was legitimately one of the most valuable players on any roster in the nation in 23-24.
So, that’s one of them! The other is Talia von Oelhoffen, who will have to settle with merely being in the 94th percentile of win shares among all players. She’s always been a talented all-around weapon for the Beavers, but her passing really came through last season, going from 3.3 to 5.0 assists per game while maintaining the same turnovers per game. With the amount of talent around her this year, that is going to be a crucial development, and if she can find her three-point shot again (43.4% as a freshman), this trio is going to be the best in the country. It already might be.
USC’s seven departures combined for 10.4 win shares in 23-24. Iriafen and von Oelhoffen had 10 total win shares between the two of them. An inexact science for value, sure, but it goes to show *how* good those additions should be to this roster.
If all else fails, Gottlieb can always rely on this monstrosity of a freshman class. Of the seven new faces, six are Top 100 prospects and three are five-stars. Kennedy Smith and Kayleigh Heckel are the two highest-rated prospects of the bunch, and the guard tandem have history together as teammates for the USA’s Under-18 team that recently won gold. Smith has some eye-popping scoring while Heckel’s all-around game could make her a player that gets heavy utilization in a variety of lineups.
Avery Howell didn’t get to Paris, but she nearly followed the Syla Swords path as a Team Canada alternate. With Smith and Heckel slowly ramping up following their busy offseason, it was Howell who was earning first-team reps in practice. Much can and will change on lineups for a team this deep, but if Howell is that fifth starter, she will likely be relied on for some perimeter shooting and sound defense, areas that work in Howell’s favor as someone who participated in the All-America Game three-point contest.
At forward, Vivian Iwuchukwu and Laura Williams both have experience playing in complementary roles for strong teams coming in, with Iwuchukwu playing on the championship-winning Montaverde Academy. Iriafen, Marshall and Akunwafo are a terrific base for forward talent, but there’s room for both of these freshmen to get bench opportunities in Year One after them.
Rian Forestier was “only” a Top 55 prospect and Brooklyn Shamblin was “only” a nominee for the All-America game, and in USC’s recruiting class that makes you the last two I get to somehow. Gottlieb should be extremely set on four starters for the roster, and potentially two subs, but everything else is up for grabs. These are still two supremely talented guards that simply need to have a great camp to compete with the five-stars battling for the same spots.
Outlook
Projected Starters
Talia von Oelhoffen - G
Avery Howell - G
JuJu Watkins - G
Kiki Iriafen - F
Rayah Marshall - C
Projected Big Ten Finish: 1st
With UCLA, it was trying to think about how a team so good, returning so much of its main unit, can get better with its adds. For USC, there is less solidly known than there was with the Bruins, but the ceiling feels so out-of-this-world high that it became irresponsible to have the Trojans predicted anywhere but No. 1.
A Watkins-Iriafen-von Oelhoffen trio is silly stuff, it really is. Rayah Marshall being the fourth option is ridiculous. But USC will have to get the most out of its unproven talent everywhere else to end up in this top spot at the end of it.
I will go with the training camp eyes and say Howell is the Day 1 fifth starter, but please don’t make me even try to guess who it will be by the end of the season because the answer truly should be “whichever freshmen works best there.” If the locked-in starting four has a weak point, it would be with stretching the floor offensively. Whether von Oelhoffen or Watkins improve from deep or a freshman gets hot, an improved perimeter game will make everything so much easier for this unit that quite literally should not be stopped inside the arc.
I didn’t talk enough about Kiki Iriafen here and I’m sorry about that, but just know that I KNOW how good of a player she is and how important of an add that was for this team. She’s a vet, she’s a remarkable two-way player and she could give USC two All-Americans this season. They were both Preseason All-Americans, the first time two teammates were chosen since UConn had a trio in 2017-18.
If USC is going to stumble somewhere along the way this season, I expect it to be early on. Again, this team is largely built on four stars, two of which have never played on this team, and seven true freshmen. Things may need to get worked out in non-conference play, but if it ever starts going smoothly it could just be a wrap for the rest of the Big Ten.
JuJu Watkins is entering the conference as soon as Caitlin Clark departs it, which is fitting in many ways considering their similarities as two superhumans who needed no time to adapt to the college game. This is where I note that Clark’s arguably worst season was her second one, a year that featured heightened expectations and increased volume that was met with more inconsistent shooting (33.2% from 3PT) and a downer ending (Round of 32 upset). Clark never had the cast of talent that Watkins does now, and they are very different players stylistically. The consistent between them is the pressure of the situation, which is why I note it at all. I am curious to see how Watkins handles that moving forward into Year Two.
There are potentially safer floors in this conference, but USC’s top-end talent, plus the surplus of potential superstars waiting in the wings, makes the Trojans a team that can compete, and win, a national title. If the starts are cohesive, if even two or three of the freshmen are ready for sizable minutes, this roster is loaded. Gottlieb has done great things for this program in a short span of time and seems like the coach for the job, but this will be her toughest task yet in a different way.
USC has yet to play a Big Ten game as a Big Ten school, but the Trojans are entering the party as the team to beat anyway. I simply cannot wait to see how it actually plays out.
Photo Credit: USC Athletics
If you are interested in more Big Ten women’s basketball content like this, you can subscribe with the button at the top or bottom of the post, or share it with the button below. Thanks!