The Big Ten's Wacky Wild Sunday
Super Bowls are overrated
While most people only cared about one sporting event yesterday, the Big Ten decided to sneak in its most bizarre day of the season, and I am certainly grateful for it.
There were three games happening yesterday in the conference, and they all ended within 30 minutes of each other. Here are those games, with the win probabilities heading into the matchup by Her Hoops Stats:
Michigan @ Northwestern — Michigan 78.2%
Purdue @ Wisconsin — Purdue 80.7%
Penn State @ Rutgers — Rutgers 65.6%
For starters, I will have to disagree with HHS on the Rutgers win probability, considering that the Scarlet Knights entered the game with a not-so-good 0-12 conference record.
Or, at least, I would have disagreed. Because Rutgers got its first Big Ten win of the season, and it was the least crazy outcome of the day. By the time the Scarlet Knights pulled off the win, so had the Wildcats and Badgers. The likelihood of all three teams winning?
2.76%
Let’s start from the top.
Northwestern had the most eye-catching win of the bunch, taking down Michigan 71-69 in a ridiculous double-overtime game with two teams that looked ready to pass out on the floor.
It was a back-and-forth game, but the Wolverines took a five-point lead into the fourth and appeared ready to run away with it, but Northwestern’s defense stepped up in a big way. Michigan scored just five points in the first 9:34 of the frame, including a span of more than six minutes where the team was completely goosed.
The Wildcats scored eight points in that stretch and had a 58-53 lead late, seemingly ready to bring home the huge upset. Instead, Michigan’s Danielle Rauch hit a nasty three to break the scoreless streak, then drew a foul with seven seconds to go, hit both free throws, and we got overtime.
I watched it live, but looking at this first overtime box score is very funny. The teams exchanged three-point makes within the first 46 seconds, and then neither team scored a basket the rest of the frame. The only points were four free throws, two apiece, and to double OT we went.
Northwestern held a three-point lead with 1:15 to go, a lead that felt substantial considering that neither team had yet hit 70 points through almost 50 minutes of basketball. But then, Rauch did the damn thing again, hitting another ice-cold shot from deep that tied the game up.
Then, chaos.
Veronica Burton did what she does and stole a bad pass, and immediately was fouled by Nolan with four seconds to go. Northwestern was in the bonus, so this meant free throws. EXCEPT that these are Big Ten refs we are talking about, so they instead deemed it a Michigan offensive foul. A foul, I remind you, in which Burton, a Northwestern player, had the ball and was then hit.
It’s a good thing Michigan’s Amy Dilk has a code and knows what’s right, because she immediately fouled Burton on the ensuing in-bounds play for no good reason and Burton got her free throws. She made them, a last-second Michigan jumper rattled out, the Wildcats got a win they so desperately needed.
A couple things I want to highlight here:
This was Michigan’s second straight loss after having just two losses all year prior. This team needs Leigha Brown in a bad way, as the offense looks more stale than it has all season in these past two defeats.
You know that Burton is a special player because she shot 2 of 13 from the field and was still the best player on the court. Her final stat line — 13 points, 8 rebounds, 13 assists, 2 steals, 1 turnover — tells the story of the many, many ways she can dominate a game.
Northwestern’s defensive effort here was so good that this is the first time I have brought Naz Hillmon’s name up. Statistically, it was a fine game for Hillmon: 16 points, 15 rebounds. But that does not tell the whole tale. Hillmon was held without a field goal for the final 16:31 of the game, only hitting a couple free throws during the overtimes. The Wildcats smothered her opportunities with their zone defense, and it was the reason they walked out with the win.
OK, now it’s time to laugh at me.
Look at this idiot, believing in Purdue, saying that Purdue is going to sneak into the NCAA tournament. What a moron.
Those dreams are all but gone now after a 54-52 stunner to Wisconsin, and the amount that this one was stunning goes further than just bad team winning.
Purdue came for blood early in this game, and the Badgers looked ready to lay down and die. The Boilermakers were five seconds away from a shutout quarter, leading 17-0 before a Julie Pospisilova layup saved Wisconsin from complete embarrassment.
The second quarter was closer, but it looked like Purdue was just going to coast the win in, taking a 35-15 lead into halftime. Then, it all came crashing down. A 22-point lead was cut in half by a 11-0 Badger run, and the deficit was down to 10 points, 43-33, going into the fourth.
Still not time to panic, certainly the Boilermakers wouldn’t stay this ice cold and Wisconsin’s offense would slow down as it has all season. Well then the fourth quarter happened, where the Boilermakers stayed that ice cold and Wisconsin’s offense actually picked up even more.
Ten of Pospisilova’s 15 points came in the fourth, and she hit a crucial three with 2:07 to go that gave Wisconsin its first lead of the game, 49-47.
As the Badgers do, they nearly blew it entirely. Up 54-52 after a Purdue layup with 16 seconds left, Wisconsin turned it over, but Purdue couldn’t hit the shot to tie it, and the Boilermakers collapse was sealed.
Wisconsin followed up a 37-15 Purdue run with a 39-15 run of its own to seal the big time upset. The Badgers won despite shooting 36.0 percent from the floor, their lowest in a win all season.
Their lowest shooting percentage in a victory prior to that was a 37.5-percent showing against Rutgers, who had their own magical moment that ended a few minutes later.
Once again, everything seemed normal here. Penn State was up 8 with 8:50 to go, and only a Scarlet Knights supernova could do anything to stop the win.
Well.
Rutgers, a team that averages exactly 56 points per game, is a terrible offensive team. That scoring output ranks 314th in the country. That offense scored half of its typical per-game output (28 points) during a span of 8:04 in the fourth quarter.
28 points in 8 minutes. For a team that scores 56 points per a 40-minute game. Cool.
Congratulations to the Scarlet Knights on their first Big Ten win of the season. What a way to cap off a very normal and regular day for the conference.
What to Watch
Today might be Valentine’s Day, but it is also Big Ten Bangers Day, and don’t you forget it. Also, not a ton of great variety in these picks, but the best teams all play each other so what do you want me to do.
No. 5 Indiana @ Nebraska, 2/14, 7 p.m. — BTN
Her Hoops Stats Win Projection: Nebraska 53.1%
A top five Indiana getting its momentum back battles a Nebraska team has just one loss at home. Yeah, this’ll be fun.
No. 13 Maryland @ No. 22 Iowa, 2/14, 9 p.m. — ESPN2
HHS Projection: Iowa 50.8%
Maryland and Iowa played twice last year. Those games had 188 and 204 points in them. Do I need to say more?
No. 18 Ohio State @ No. 13 Maryland, 2/17, 8 p.m. — BTN
HHS Projection: Maryland 76.2%
Ohio State took the home clash of this one and it was a delight to watch. I’m sure Maryland hasn’t forgotten that.
No. 22 Iowa @ No. 5 Indiana, 2/19, 4 p.m. — B1G+
HHS Projection: Indiana 59.5%
A ranked matchup is always worth the watch, but I think Iowa has a real shot to win here if the Hoosiers are Mackenzie Holmes-less. Who is stopping Monika Czinano? The answer is nobody, folks.
No. 13 Maryland @ No. 9 Michigan, 3 p.m. — BTN
HHS Projection: Michigan 55.7%
Michigan absolutely pantsed Maryland the last time these two teams played, and that was on the road. I’m taking Maryland revenge week stocks here and hoping for some redemption, or at least a better fight.
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