2022-23 Big Ten Women's Basketball Preview: Northwestern

Can the Wildcats succeed without Veronica Burton?

Last Tuesday marked one year since I started this newsletter. I knew back then that I was not long for the journalism world and that I would need a new medium to talk about the things I was passionate about.

What I wasn’t sure about was how many people would be interested in hearing it, so I wanted to thank each and every one of you for reading my random Thursday posts/rants and, honestly more importantly, for reading these Monday posts.

I knew that Big Ten women’s basketball was worth talking about year round, but I had to hope people would give it the chance it deserves. I am happy to report a year in that more people read the Monday posts than the Thursday ones. That has made this a major success in my eyes.

So, one more time, thank you for reading. If you would like to subscribe — it’s free! — I am very close to 100 email recipients, which would be very neat to reach.

Now, let’s talk Northwestern.

Last week’s preview:

2022-23 Big Ten Women's Basketball Preview: Penn State

Just three seasons ago, Northwestern had reached the mountain top.

The Wildcats finished off a regular season in which they went 26-3, earning a share of the Big Ten crown for the first time in program history. Sure, the Big Ten tournament ended in disappointing fashion, but a 26-4 record heading into the NCAA Tournament was exceptional, and that meant a high seeding and a potential lengthy run.

I’m not sure if any of you remember March 2020, but it was a pretty significant month in time, and it wasn’t because of any NCAA Tournaments. So, there went the best season in Northwestern history without a second chance at postseason glory.

The 2020-21 season did bring back that team’s star duo of Lindsey Pulliam and Veronica Burton, but it wasn’t quite the same. The Wildcats were again good, but Pulliam’s shot struggled, and when they got into the NCAA Tournament, Northwestern just did not have the offensive firepower to capitalize on a big early lead over Louisville, eventually falling to the Cardinals 62-53.

Last season was a Veronica Burton showcase. She was the best defensive guard in the country, paced the team’s offense and did enough to ultimately become a first-round pick in the WNBA Draft. It was not enough, though, to get back into the dance.

Overall, it was a good-not-great year for Northwestern, who was aspiring for more. The offense was about where it was expected to be, but the defense, which had ranked in the top 100 each of the past three years, fell to middle of the pack.

Head coach Joe McKeown’s “Blizzard” defense excels at forcing turnovers, and it still did last year with Northwestern causing 18.3 turnovers per game, 9.9 of which came from steals. Those totals rank 45th and 29th in the nation, respectively.

But Northwestern did not succeed in stopping opponents from the perimeter. Opponents shot 34.5 percent from three, putting the Wildcats at 325th in the country. That, paired with the team not shooting or rebounding particularly well, led to a rather disappointing campaign for Burton’s final year.

Let’s talk about that final year one more time.

Veronica Burton’s 2021-22 Season

• 17.8 PPG (69th in the country)

• 6.4 APG (6th)

• 4.0 SPG (1st)

• 3.12 assist-to-turnover ratio (5th)

• 10.9 win shares (8th)

  • 8.0 offensive win shares (16th)

  • 2.9 defensive win shares (75th)

• 34.1 player efficiency rating (24th)

I don’t even know how much more I can add that these stats don’t say. Burton was, without a doubt, one of the best players in the country last season. Let me focus on the win shares bit. The players who ranked above Burton in the category were on teams that had win totals of 35, 28, 24, 20, 25, 24 and 25. Only Ayoka Lee on the 20-win Kansas State roster is even close to what Burton did on a 17-12 team. She was, arguably, more important to her team’s success than any player in women’s college basketball.

Well, she’s gone now. Did the roster fall apart around her?

Not even a little bit. Satterwhite’s departure isn’t ideal, but this is about as little roster attrition as Northwestern could have hoped for, so much so that the Wildcats have not brought in a single transfer.

The major returnees are Courtney Shaw and Sydney Wood. The pair of fifth-year seniors could have left, but decided to use their extra years of eligibility to lead this post-Burton era. Shaw has been an excellent interior presence for Northwestern, averaging 8.1 points and 10.0 rebounds per game on 51.3-percent shooting last year.

With no Burton, Wood’s return became critical. She only played four games last year due to injury, but was excellent the year prior with 10.8 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 2.6 SPG and 1.1 BPG while shooting 50.7 percent from the field. With her active last season, the Wildcats almost certainly get into the NCAA Tournament.

Wood’s absence led to some earlier-than-expected minutes for Jillian Brown, and the true freshman delivered with 8.0 PPG and 2.0 APG. Her efficiency numbers were not idea (33.3 FG%), but she was willing to shoot the deep ball and should only see her percentages go up with time. Laya Hartman may have been a junior last season, but she saw a significant uptick in minutes (6.0 per game in 2020-21, 26.0 per game in 2021-22). She capitalized with 7.6 PPG while shooting 38.7 percent from deep.

All of this experience is critical for a backcourt that is now without its leader. The forward group remains almost identical to last year, and features a handful of underclassmen ready to make a leap. The most likely to do so may be Caileigh Walsh, who shot close to half of her 8.4 field goal attempts per game from deep (3.5). Her 1.5 blocks per game also led the team and proved she was extremely capable as an interior defender.

Because a dozen players return from last year’s roster, this freshman group shouldn’t necessarily be asked to make major contributions immediately, but there’s talent here if Northwestern needs a spark. That is most likely to come from Caroline Lau, the top 100 prospect who averaged 22 PPG, 6.5 RPG and 4 APG as a junior.

Outlook

It is hard to know what Northwestern is going to look like this season because of how much its recent identity involved Burton. I know it is McKeown’s system, but it was clear how deeply this team needed its star to show up in order to win games, and now that star is gone.

The fact that the Wildcats kept nearly every other member of the team together, though, is huge, and it shows the belief this roster has in itself. If someone can step up to fill the void at point guard, Northwestern could come out of this as good, if not better with a more balanced attack.

The defense was not bad by any stretch in 2021-22, but it was not up to par for what Northwestern is expected to be. A bounce back there is necessary, and if the Blizzard is as suffocating as it has been in the past, this team could be right back in the NCAA Tournament.

Despite all my optimism, it’s hard to imagine Northwestern being better without Veronica Burton. She was simply too good to think otherwise.

Truly, more than maybe any team in the Big Ten, Northwestern is one I have to wait and see. The roster stability is a great sign, but could a transfer have helped bring some energy to the program? Only time will tell.

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