The Strength Of The Big Ten's Final 14-Team Season
How the Big Ten compared to the rest of the power conferences in its previous form
The Big Ten as we know it is no more, but how did the final year of the 14-team era go for the conference?
Once a year, I check that by looking at a variety of numbers between the Power Six conferences — the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12 and SEC — to see which conference was the most impressive over the previous season. Here is the 2023 version for reference (and numbers from it will be referenced below as well). If it wasn’t clear by what I have already said, this is based on where each program was for the 2023-24 season and not where they are ending up for 2024-25.
Last Week’s Hoopla:
End-of-Season Success
A conference is often most judged by its performance in the big tournament at the end, but that can also be looked at a few different ways.
March Madness Teams
T-1.) ACC - 8
T-1.) SEC - 8
T-3.) Big Ten - 7
T-3.) Big 12 - 7
T-3.) Pac-12 - 7
6.) Big East - 3
The Big Ten matched its total from 2023 with seven NCAA Tournament teams. Both years, they were surpassed by the ACC, but the SEC also added an eighth team to the field this time around.
March Madness Wins (and Win Percentage)
1.) Pac-12 - 14 (66.7%)
2.) SEC - 13 (65.0%)
3.) ACC - 11 (57.9%)
4.) Big 12 - 10 (58.8%)
5.) Big Ten - 9 (56.3%)
6.) Big East - 5 (62.5%)
Iowa bailed out the Big Ten in a big way here, earning over half of the conference’s NCAA Tournament wins on the way to its second straight national title game.
This is an area the Big Ten was significantly worse in than last year, when the conference won 13 of its 20 tourney games, third best of all conferences in wins and second among the power conferences in win percentage. While the Hawkeyes held up their part of the bargain both years, no other Big Ten team outperformed their seed throughout this year’s tournament, while Ohio State got bounced way earlier than anticipated in the Round of 32.
There is a caveat here, and it comes with other postseason tournaments. The Big Ten was involved in both the WNIT and WBIT finals, and Illinois won the WBIT outright. The conference did extremely well in both brackets there, but did not have the same success at the top end.
Final AP Poll
T-1.) Big 12 - 6 teams ranked
T-1.) Pac-12 - 6
3.) ACC - 5
4.) Big Ten - 3
T-5.) Big East - 2
T-5.) SEC - 2
This further drives home the point that the Big Ten lacked as much dominance toward the top as it did the year prior, while the Big 12, Pac-12 and ACC all showed a large quantity of teams that were difference makers. This was especially true with the Pac-12, which had four teams ranked in the Top 10.
I find it interesting that the SEC finished with only two teams — South Carolina and LSU — ranked. Of course, the Gamecocks ending as undefeated national champions can and should drag the whole conference up with it, but from a depth perspective, it was actually a down year for what had been the runaway top conference last year.
Analytical Look
Which conference, top to bottom, was the best according to the numbers? We will turn to Her Hoop Stats for that, and look at how each conference did with their average ratings overall, as well as on offense and defense.
Average Offense Ratings
1.) Big Ten - 107.62
2.) Pac-12 - 107.25
3.) SEC - 104.24
4.) Big 12 - 103.37
5.) ACC - 103.09
6.) Big East - 99.86
For the second straight year, the Big Ten has been, according to the numbers, the best offensive conference in the country. All six conferences stayed in the exact same order from the year prior, so let’s look a little deeper at the numbers themselves.
The Big Ten’s offensive rating jumped 2.41 points, just narrowly beaten out by the Pac-12 (2.50 points) for the highest leap of any conference. The SEC and Big 12 more or less stayed the same, while the ACC also made a jump of 1.46 points. The Big East’s offensive rating fell 1.37 points overall.
For the Big Ten, this meets the eye test. The conference has had frantic, relentless offensive units for years now, first with Maryland and now with Indiana and Iowa dominating with their efficient attacks.
Average Defensive Ratings
1.) Pac-12 - 84.64
2.) SEC - 85.04
3.) Big 12 - 85.46
4.) ACC - 86.46
5.) Big East - 88.77
6.) Big Ten - 88.85
With great offense, there can often be less great defense. The Big Ten fell to the bottom of this list in 2023-24, just barely getting edged out by the Big East for the worst average defensive rating among power conferences. The overall rating only fell 0.61 points, while the ACC (-2.5) and SEC (-1.9) saw worse drop-offs.
All of this cleared the way for the Pac-12 to take the defensive throne despite a 0.16-point ratings decrease. Only the Big 12 (+0.25) and Big East (+0.08) improved defensively as a conference, a potential sign that offenses are taking a little more control nationally.
Overall Team Ratings
1.) Pac-12 - 22.61 (+2.35 from 22-23)
2.) SEC - 19.21 (-1.75)
3.) Big Ten - 18.78 (+1.82)
4.) Big 12 - 17.89 (+0.44)
5.) ACC - 16.65 (-1.01)
6.) Big East - 11.10 (-1.27)
Despite a last-place effort on defense and a lack of NCAA Tournament success compared to other conferences, the Big Ten showed its strengths here, finishing two spots higher than last season with a third-place overall average team rating. Outside of the Pac-12 — who had a historically good final season of existence — no other conference improved more in overall rating.
The Big Ten’s rise can be attributed to the middle section of the conference, where teams like Nebraska, Michigan, Illinois, Penn State, etc. all showed they are extremely capable teams, but battled each other to the point of hurting their respective records. The HHS numbers still liked a lot of these teams, and it helped leap the Big Ten past the Big 12 and ACC.
As an aside, this year has made me feel more than ever that I should stop including the Big East in this. Yes, they have UConn, and yes, Creighton, Villanova and St. John’s have shown promise and are fun teams to watch, but this conference is very much stuck in sixth. If the Big Ten played just a little bit more defense, the conference would be last or tied for last in every single category.
Conclusion
Last year, I felt that the Big Ten was confidently a top four conference, but was in a battle with the Pac-12 for third as the SEC and ACC separated themselves.
The Pac-12 then went on to have a remarkable season, and was firmly battling the SEC for honor of top dog among the conferences with a very strong case for claiming the throne. For what it’s worth, all of this makes the Pac-12’s demise sting that much harder.
The ACC’s drop in overall success, and similar win rate in the NCAA Tournament, makes me think the Big Ten surpassed them in 2023-24, putting our beloved conference in third place in its final run with 14 teams.
Of course, everything has changed now and none of this will matter when doing this story following next season. the Big Ten and SEC are almost certainly going to be the juggernauts, but it will be exciting to see which of those powers can come out on top.
If you are interested in more Big Ten women’s basketball content like this, you can subscribe with the button at the top or bottom of the post, or share it with the button below. Thanks!