Big Ten In The Big Dance: Part Two
Paths and predictions for the Big Ten's top four seeds
For breakdowns on my predicted NCAA Tournament runs of Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Nebraska, Oregon and Washington, read Part One here.
One more reminder, JOIN MY MARCH MADNESS GROUP(S)!
My Women’s Bracket Challenge is titled “The Hoopla Groupla 2025” on ESPN, and there will again be prizes for Homefield Apparel given out to the top three brackets. Also, more importantly of course, anyone who does better than me (bracket name “Hoopla Guy”) in the Bracket Challenge AND with accurately predicting Big Ten teams will be shouted out in a future Hoopla.
The women’s bracket is FREE and open to join until games start Friday! We currently have nearly 40 entries with a few days still to go, come join the fun!
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A Brief Talk On The Transfer Portal
It’s already very much happening! I won’t focus on it significantly until after the postseasons wrap, but if you haven’t seen, just about every player on Wisconsin is set to enter the portal, including star forwards Serah Williams and Carter McCray. Penn State has had two entries, as have a few players on Northwestern, Purdue and USC who did not play this season.
It’s significant and we will get to it, but I’d rather focus on the games left while we have them for now. But speaking of the portal, Zach at Undisputed Hoops put out a great post highlighting a few of the best transfers from this past Big Ten season, including a few players that will be of note in this very post, so check that out if you can’t resist portal talk.
Maryland
4 seed
Region 2
Matchup: 13 Norfolk State, winner plays 5 Alabama or 12 Green Bay
The Terrapins ended the regular season playing some great basketball, winning 6 of 7 including victories over Michigan, Indiana and Ohio State. Then they got to the Big Ten Tournament and laid a gigantic egg against those same Wolverines, losing by 27.
My largest takeaway from Maryland’s one game in Indy was that Shyanne Sellers (14.1 PPG, 4.2 APG, 44.4 3PT%) did not look 100 percent. She had 2 points in 19 minutes and felt uninvolved in the offense, but two weeks of rest since that game could be a huge deal for her, and would be a huge deal for Maryland’s chances at a deep run.
The Terps have ran a very efficient offense, ranking top 50 nationally from two and three while getting to the line the 10th-most in the NCAA. Maryland has improved dramatically as a rebounding unit, ranking 11th in rebounding rate thanks to some key transfer additions in Saylor Poffenbarger and Christina Dalce, the former of which is also recovering from an injury but played against Michigan.
Kaylene Smikle is the largest non-Sellers X-factor of the roster. She’s a high-volume scoring option that brings it on both sides of the floor and who can takeover a game on the right day. Sarah Te-Biasu has also continued to develop into her role and was the best player on the floor for the Terps the last time we saw them.
This roster at their best is a machine with the versatility to defend and score on just about anyone. It’s a group that has been prone to some lulls, but has hit huge highs like beating the Buckeyes, or Duke, or Iowa, etc.
Norfolk State is an interesting first test who will try to turn Maryland over as much as it can. Diamond Johnson (19.0 PPG, 3.7 SPG) is a menace, but the Spartans have four total players averaging at least 1.6 steals per game. But the Terps should have the shooting and rebounding edge to get past the initial challenge and move on.
I’m not counting Green Bay out against the Crimson Tide — the Phoenix boast an impressive assist-to-turnover ratio and play a slow pace that could frustrate opponents — but I want to focus on Alabama as a potential matchup because what a showdown this would be.
The Crimson Tide are a solid bunch with victories over LSU and Ole Miss. They are a great three-point shooting team, led by Aaliyah Nye (15.1 PPG, 45.5 3PT%), who has 105 made threes on the season. Maryland has been below average at stopping the three this year and prefers not to focus its offense on the deep ball, so this matchup on the perimeter will be critical to who wins.
On the other end, Alabama is a OK rebounding team and a bad free throw shooting team, both areas that favor the Terps, so if Maryland can battle inside instead of settling for mid-range shots, they could frustrate the Crimson Tide.
Here is where getting that 4-seed really might matter. If Maryland was in Tuscaloosa for this one, I would probably lean Alabama in the matchup. But the Terps will be playing in College Park and I think will be able to make it through into the second weekend. I would pick South Carolina to win the following round based on depth, neutralizing the rebounding advantage and their suffocating defense, but a Sweet 16 run is plenty to be happy about as a bounce-back from last season.
Prediction: Sweet 16
Ohio State
4 seed
Region 3
Matchup: 13 Montana State, winner plays 5 Tennessee or 12 South Florida
The Buckeyes come into this NCAA Tournament a little out of form, going 5-5 in their final 10 games after an impressive 19-1 start to the campaign. None of these losses were particularly egregious as far as matchups go, but the way Ohio State looked so thoroughly outmatched in the 75-46 loss to UCLA during the Big Ten Tournament had some cause of concern.
More than the score, though, was the fact that both Cotie McMahon (16.4 PPG, 1.3 SPG) and Jaloni Cambridge (15.4 PPG, 3.9 APG, 2.0 SPG) suffered injuries in that game. Ohio State’s two leading scorers and most significant sources of energy for the team should be available to play, and I do believe the Buckeyes will go as far as those two can get them.
There is one thing certain about Ohio State’s path forward in this region: The turnover battle may mean everything. The Buckeyes are known for that press defense that causes opponents fits, ranking ninth nationally in steals per game. Well, Montana State is No. 1 in the category, with 14.2 steals per game and a 17.2% steal rate. The Buckeyes are the better team at avoiding turnovers and will be more experienced against stifling defenses, but it’s worth noting for when this game inevitably gets ugly for portions of time.
I expect Ohio State to advance, and I expect the opponent to be Tennessee. It absolutely could be South Florida, who has beaten Duke and plays a very strong non-conference schedule, but I am a believer in Kim Caldwell and her frantic style of play to do enough against the Bulls’ less stellar attack.
Guess what Tennessee’s defense does? That’s right! The Vols are 14th in steals and force the ninth-most turnovers per game, so the Buckeyes will not be able to ease up whatsoever on offense in this one. Caldwell’s whole philosophy revolves around a deep bench and quick rotations, which I think can be extremely useful in keeping players fresh on the second game of the weekend. But it’s also worth nothing the Vols also struggled down the stretch of the season, losing 3 of their last 4, including a bad bad home loss to Georgia.
Ohio State is at home, which similarly to Maryland, is a huge deal. The Buckeyes of course were at home last season, too, when they fell to Duke.
I have gone back and forth on who will win this game ever since the bracket released. I would probably take a fully healthy Ohio State to win at home here, but I have concerns that the Buckeyes will be without shot blocker Elsa Lemmilä, and that either McMahon, Cambridge, or both, could be less than 100 percent. That would be especially difficult against back-to-back opponents that are among the country’s best in forcing turnovers.
I will ultimately be picking the Vols here in a game I expect to go down to the wire. And if it does, neither team is good at free throws, so expect some true chaos down the stretch.
Prediction: Round of 32
USC
1 seed
Region 4
Matchup: UNC Greensboro, winner plays 8 Cal or 9 Mississippi State
The Trojans may feel slighted for being the fourth one seed, but I felt it was a fair placement, with a move above Texas to third being the only real consideration.
This team plays with pace, scores extremely well on the interior and has improved from three, all while playing tremendous defense, ranking second in blocks per game and eighth in opponent effective field goal percentage in the NCAA.
JuJu Watkins (24.6 PPG, 6.9 RPG, 3.5 APG, 2.2 SPG, 1.9 BPG) likely needs no introduction at this point. Bringing in Kiki Iriafen (18.2 PPG, 8.3 RPG) has been significant, as has been the rise of freshman Kennedy Smith (9.5 PPG, 2.1 SPG), who has immediately showcased elite defensive ability.
If those three weren’t enough to scare teams, Rayah Marshall (8.2 RPG, 1.2 SPG, 1.9 BPG) is yet another smothering presence to make each and every basket a difficult experience.
UNC Greensboro will be an interesting watch as they love to sloooooooooow down the pace (fourth-slowest in NCAA) and it has helped them defensively, but the Spartans don’t have anything offensively to make me think a historic upset is possible.
I’m taking Cal over Mississippi State in the 8-9 matchup, as I like the Golden Bears’ impressive array of three-point shooters, and the fact that Cal may have a sizable crowd in a game taking place at USC. Those threes could give USC some fits, but the emergence of an extra shooting threat like Avery Howell off the bench, as well as JuJu’s knack for finding buckets at a moment’s notice, makes me think it’ll be a relatively comfortable move into the Sweet 16.
Hoopla next week will talk about the actual matchups that come up for the second weekend, but my prediction for opponent here is Kentucky. Kenny Brooks’ group has an impressive starting lineup headlined by Georgia Amoore (19.1 PPG, 6.9 RPG) and Clara Strack (15.2 PPG, 9.7 RPG, 2.4 BPG).
Thanks largely to Amoore and Strack’s specialties, Kentucky is very good at moving the ball around and blocking a lot of shots. Kentucky is the only team ahead of USC in the latter, ranking first in the nation in blocks, with Strack as one of four players averaging a block per game on this roster.
Kentucky has two key weaknesses, and that’s getting to the foul line and forcing turnovers. The Trojans are pretty great at both of those things, and I think USC can take over with athleticism and pace as long as Amoore doesn’t go nuclear.
This would lead to an Elite Eight showdown with, in my book, UConn. USC has already beaten UConn once this year in Storrs, and has proven capable of beating extremely good opponents twice already.
That said, I think I would pick UConn on the rematch. Not in a landslide by any means, but I do think the Huskies might be the nation’s most complete team on paper. Paige Bueckers (19.0 PPG, 4.9 APG, 2.0 SPG, 40.6 3PT%) and freshman Sarah Strong (16.0 PPG, 8.4 RPG, 3.4 APG, 2.4 SPG, 1.6 BPG) are clear superstars, and UConn now has the depth and options it lacked the last few seasons to make a championship run.
USC has beaten them once and absolutely can do it again — I will never confidently bet against JuJu Watkins ever — but the difference in the rematch could be Azzi Fudd, who played only eight minutes and was held scoreless the first time around. She’s been in much better form since and is among the best sharpshooters in the country.
Prediction: Elite Eight
UCLA
1 seed
Region 1
Matchup: Winner of 16 UC San Diego/Southern, winner plays 8 Richmond or 9 Georgia Tech
UCLA enter this tournament as the No. 1 overall seed after getting revenge on USC in the Big Ten Tournament. The Bruins remain undefeated against every non-Trojans team in the country, and are among the most well-balanced groups in the bracket.
The Bruins are the best rebounding team in the country, have the seventh-best field goal percentage and hold opponents to the fourth-lowest field goal percentage in the country. They are top five on assists per game, have a top 15 assist-to-turnover ratio and block rate, and have held a very solid, consistent nine-player rotation that has many ways it can beat you.
At the head of it all is Lauren Betts (19.6 PPG, 9.7 RPG, 2.9 BPG), a dominant force inside on both ends of the floor that can score at will, but who is also used as a key facilitator for the offense. Kiki Rice (12.8 PPG, 4.8 APG, 1.6 SPG) is the other key engine that makes it run, and both are also excellent at getting to the line.
The Big Ten Tournament showcased how important players like Londynn Jones, Gabriela Jaquez and Angela Dugalić are for this team’s success, and the same can be said for key players Elina Aarnisalo, Timea Gardiner and Janiah Barker off the bench. It feels like UCLA can survive an off game from one of its stars because of how rock solid its foundation is, which has been the key to racking up so many wins this season.
UCLA should be able to breeze past its opening round matchup, and after heavy debate, I anticipate Richmond being its next opponent. I have a hard time trusting Georgia Tech after a cooled down finish to the season, while Richmond had won 17 straight prior to being upset by Saint Joseph’s. The Spiders run an uber-efficient attack ranked 1st in the NCAA in effective field goal percentage (58.1%) and rarely foul thanks to a slow, methodical style of play.
Richmond would be an interesting challenge for this UCLA roster, and you never know what can happen when shots are falling, but I think UCLA is simply too talented to let a full-blown upset happen here. I have Ole Miss as UCLA’s Sweet 16 opponent, though it could certainly be Baylor as well. The Rebels have found success through second chance baskets and by dominating the turnover margins. They can be a real annoying team to play, which USC found out on Day 1 of this season when the Trojans survived with a 68-66 win.
Ole Miss spreads the ball around well with four scorers between 10.8 and 11.9 PPG, but I think UCLA takes away that rebounding edge the Rebels often can create, and would move on to the Elite Eight. LSU will be a hot pick here, but not for me. I think NC State deserves more credit than it has gotten this season, and is closer to the top six teams than the rest of the field.
Aziaha James, Saniya Rivers, Madison Hayes and Zoe Brooks is not a group I would ever love facing, and they are a group that scores well across the board while avoiding fouls better than anyone (1st in NCAA in foul rate, 14.6%). NC State’s weak points are a sometimes stagnant offense (329th in assist rate) and a defense that doesn’t generate a lot of turnovers (291st), the latter of which is also not a strength for the Bruins (209th).
This would be a great game with loads of star talent, but UCLA’s balance gives them the edge here to move into the Final Four.
Hey would you look at that, it could be a Round 4 with USC! But as stated above, I would have UConn making it here. This would also be absolute cinema of a matchup, and I’d love to see how the Huskies work to try to contain Betts. I think the winner of this game wins the tournament truly, and I am going to give UConn the edge to do so. Bueckers and Strong against Betts and Rice is the narrowest of advantages to the Huskies in my eyes, and I trust their well-rounded shooting a touch more.
All that said, I believe that if Betts can win the battle enough inside, UCLA absolutely can win there, and then in the title game.
Prediction: Final Four
Final Overview and Champion Pick
Probably spoiled it above, but I’m going with UConn as my champion, beating South Carolina for the second time this year in the title game. Notre Dame and UCLA are my other Final Four choices. A fully healthy Bueckers winning a title before heading to the WNBA feels poetic, but I’m picking them because I think the Huskies have the best overall roster by a fine margin over the Bruins and Gamecocks.
In my predictions, the Big Ten goes 17-12 overall, 16-12 not including the First Four. I have four teams in the Sweet 16: UCLA, USC, Maryland and Iowa. It might not be the conference hitting its ultimate ceiling, especially with a pair of 1 seeds, but I think making another Final Four and getting nine teams past the first round would be plenty to be excited about.
But, what do I know! I have been wrong so many times before!! I’m just beyond excited to see it all play out.
NOTE: Hoopla will next release on TUESDAY to allow for the completion of the first weekend
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Photo Credit: Iowa Women’s Basketball (@IowaWBB), Twitter
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This feels like the most wide open the Tournament has been in a while. Pre-seeding I would've had UConn and USC as 2 of my 3 most likely teams to win. Now one won't even make the Final Four. I've worried all year UCLA doesn't have enough offense outside of Betts to win it, and frankly I still do. Texas and South Carolina having fairly recent blowout losses, which is also concerning. Plus you can't write off the other 2-seeds or Notre Dame and LSU either.