Checking Expectations
What we know about the Big Ten teams entering 2025 compared to preseason
If you missed last week’s Hoopla, I did my annual Top 50 songs of the year list… and then completely forgot to add links to the Apple Music and Spotify playlists at the end for the email. Whoops.
Here are those, if you were interested!
12/16 Hoopla:
Entering the new year, each Big Ten team has played two conference opponents and at least 10 non-con foes, and it’s given me plenty to compare to what I was anticipating before the season began. So that’s what I plan to do here!
I’m going to discuss each Big Ten team through three lenses: Teams that are performing above expectations, on pace, and below expectations based on where they are currently ranked among Big Ten teams in the NET Rankings against where I placed them in the preseason. This may not be a fully accurate interpretation, and I’ll say when I don’t necessarily agree, but it’s an important measure for the NCAA Tournament and I like to complain about it anyway.
Above Expectations
Michigan State (9th → 4th)
Michigan (11th → 6th)
Minnesota (10th → 7th)
Penn State (17th → 14th)
It’s great to be an M team early on this season, as each have proven they are more ready to compete this year than I anticipated.
I bundled the Michigan’s + Minnesota directly in the middle of the conference as teams that absolutely were capable of making the tourney at the end of the season, but I had concerns about each of their abilities to be consistent and to take down tougher competition. I feel the worse about doubting the Spartans, who rank 16th in the NET after starting 11-0 and earning some key wins over Iowa and Vanderbilt. I saw Illinois take a second-year dip after a miraculous first season with a new head coach, and feared the same could happen under Robyn Fralick, but so far I have been proven very wrong.
Yes, Michigan State has dropped its last two games, but both were against very strong competition and thanks to the fantastic front court duo of Julia Ayrault and Grace VanSlooten, I truly believe the Spartans can compete for early round home games if they can regain their form.
Another Michigan team has made plenty of their own waves. The Wolverines are 10-3, and three of their top four contributors are true freshmen. While that’s beyond a great sign for what’s to come in this program, this is a unit that has proven they can compete now. Syla Swords, Olive Olson and Mila Holloway have all flashed true stardom, and they showed it right away by scaring the life out of South Carolina in Game No. 1.
Like the Spartans, Michigan has now lost 2 of 3, and USC most recently JuJu Watkins’ed them. That’ll happen, but a Top 25 NET ranking heading into 2024 is a massive victory.
Next up is Minnesota, who may be the most impressive above expectations team of the bunch. The Gophers currently sit at 12-1 and 28th in the NET. The schedule has been extremely welcoming, sure, but this is also a team that has primarily been without its best player, Mara Braun, so to have this many wins in this lopsided of a fashion is still notable to me.
A big reason for this is Tori McKinney. She hasn’t grabbed the headlines as much as some of the other freshman in this conference, but she is having a marvelous start to her college career. McKinney is currently averaging 10.4 PPG on 51/41/95 shooting with 1.4 SPG and a 3.86 assist-to-turnover ratio. In other words, she’s been good at just about everything.
Finally, Penn State! This may be a bad time to boast about the Nittany Lions after the aforementioned Gophers beat them by 36 points, but they are still 9-4, and Gracie Merkle has found her Bellarmine form after a year away. I don’t think this team will stay in the NCAA Tournament picture, but the lows haven’t been as low as I expected, which is a big deal for the program moving forward.
Meeting Expectations
UCLA (2nd → 1st)
USC (1st → 2nd)
Ohio State (4th → 3rd)
Iowa (8th → 8th)
Oregon (12th → 11th)
Washington (14th → 13th)
Rutgers (16th → 16th)
Northwestern (18th → 17th)
The largest section, which tells me that I had some idea of what to expect so hey, good for me!
The new California teams have swapped poll position thanks to UCLA’s undefeated record and big win over South Carolina, but the Trojans are looking more and more like the team we all anticipated, most recently beating UConn on the road and taking down the Wolverines by 20.
The Buckeyes are another undefeated unit that is really rounding into form, emphasized by a smackdown natural site victory over Stanford that had six Buckeyes in double figures. This is a deep unit that is getting fantastic contributions out of Cotie McMahon and Chance Gray. The more I see from them, the more I believe they have the potential to be a better version of the team that won the Big Ten last year.
Iowa currently sits at No. 31 in the NET, and I think the Hawkeyes should be happy about that. Lucy Olsen was a massive pickup, and I’ve loved what I’ve seen so far from Addison O’Grady stepping up into a starting role.
The other two Pac-12 teams are also here, but I didn’t expect Oregon’s season stats to be this spread out. Ten — TEN — players average between 10.8 and 4.5 PPG, and no players average more. It’s a team that could use a singular scoring option at times, but there’s plenty of weapons that are capable on any night. Washington’s wins and losses are more or less a line between good and less good teams, but their top-end talent is going to cause troubles in conference play, especially if Elle Ladine has 40-point games in her repertoire.
Rutgers and Northwestern are trending toward the bottom of the Big Ten as thought, but I think both teams have shown true glimmers to build on. Northwestern beat Utah and has a winning record, both things that felt unlikely after the 0-2 start. Kiyomi McMiller has been a walking highlight reel, but is also doing it efficiently while averaging over 20 PPG. She can be the superstar that leads the Scarlet Knights back to national relevance.
Slightly “Below” Expectations
Maryland (3rd → 5th)
Wisconsin (13th → 15th)
This is getting its own tier because I think the NET is bad and wrong for these two teams in specific.
Maryland is not below any amount of expectation. This is an undefeated team with wins over Duke and Michigan State, along with a solid natural site victory over George Mason and a road win over Syracuse. Above all, I will emphasize again, there is a zero in the loss column! How in the world did the NET spit out a No. 21 ranking?
I’m most impressed with Maryland’s evolution into not just an acceptable rebounding unit, but a truly elite one. The Terps are second in the country with a 61.0% rebounding rate, and have found a truly special primary scorer in Kaylene Smikle. They are fresh off a big win against Michigan State and have proven to me that they are very much back among the Big Ten’s best.
Wisconsin has also not actually been below my expectations. The Badgers are 10-3! They had a recent spell where they had 10 wins or fewer in 7 of 9 seasons! The loss to Indiana, and the style of said loss, was a tough blow, but to have this record in late December is still a big deal.
Below Expectations
Nebraska (6th → 9th)
Illinois (7th → 10th)
Indiana (5th → 12th)
Purdue (15th → 18th)
While none are Maryland level of diabolical, it feels harsh for some of these teams to be placed in this bottom tier. That is especially the case for Nebraska, who lost a major piece for the season when Natalie Potts tore her ACL, and are still 10-3. Britt Prince is yet another talented freshman to watch for in this conference, and I think her continued rise could keep the Cornhuskers afloat.
The Illini are even better at 11-2, and one of those losses was to Ohio State by nine. The other — Kentucky by 23 at a neutral site — is likely dragging them down, but I still have plenty of expectations for this experienced unit.
Indiana had the largest drop of any team, and much of that is due to the early losses to Harvard and Butler, the former being at home, then a 30-point thrashing to North Carolina. Those losses showed me that the Hoosiers were starting from a lower point than I thought after losing Mackenzie Holmes and Sara Scalia.
That being said, the Hoosiers also have had injury issues and are quietly on a six-game winning streak and recently blew out the Badgers. Things appear to be looking up, and Teri Moren might have this team in a groove toward the back half of the schedule.
Also worth noting: Nebraska, Illinois and Indiana rank Nos. 35, 36 and 39 in the NET. These are not massive fall-offs, they just happen to be behind a lot of Big Ten teams in an extremely stacked conference.
Purdue ranks 139th with a 7-6 record, but has yet to find a signature win to boost the résumé. Reagan Bass and Destani Lombard have been solid transfer adds, Lana McCarthy is showing potential as a true freshman, but this has felt like a transition year following the mass exodus of graduates in 23-24.
Top Performances So Far
Sean Henderson (@wesean4) made some tables showing the top individual performances from Big Ten players this season, rated by game score, that I thought would be interesting to look at and follow throughout the season:
A couple things stand out to me from this list:
Gracie Merkle and Serah Williams are both here twice for efficient double-double performances. Considering how Butler contained the Hoosiers early in the season, that 36 and 14 game Williams had on the road is quite a showing.
USC’s JuJu Watkins and Kiki Iriafen are the only pair of teammates in the Top 10. JuJu is transcendent and will always be a team’s top priority, but that makes Iriafen that much more terrifying to deal with.
Jaloni Cambridge, my word. This was her first EVER collegiate game, and it was against an opponent that currently is 10-2, and that won 29 games the year before. That opponent was no slouch, and Cambridge came on the scene and eviscerated them.
This is a list against only Power Four conferences and the Big East, and Williams’ Butler masterclass is the top spot. She also found a third star performance to add to the list with the big showing against Rutgers.
A third Trojan! Rayah Marshall has not been a high-volume scorer this year, but she is a great rebounder and also added six assists, three steals and two blocks with zero turnovers in that performance against Seton Hall.
Karoline Striplin could be a big factor for the Hoosiers as a forward option. She was unstoppable against Penn State and had performances of 18 and 16 points in the games that followed it. Shay Ciezki’s ability to absolutely light it up will also be significant.
Cambridge isn’t the only one who can make a list in a debut! How about Syla Swords doing it in her first game against the defending undefeated national champions. That is unbelievable in about one million ways, and she did about all she could to try and steal that victory.
Thanks again to Sean for sending these my way, and I hope to incorporate more of them as the season goes on.
Photo Credit: Brad Rempel, Minnesota Athletics
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